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Recovery Mode: Should China Worry About the U.S.s Quantitative Easing?In a speech in February in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said that despite various efforts, it could be a long time before employment levels in the country return to more comfortable pre-downturn levels of around 5%. And when asked after his speech whether another round of the Feds so-called quantitative easing would be necessary after the current round (known as QE2) comes to an end in June, Bernanke replied, “The Fed will decide the same way it always does - by looking at various economic metrics, including the unemployment rate, which has been hovering around 10% for some months. As the number of people out of work in the country remains high, it looks increasingly likely that the Fed will proceed with QE3, a move likely to be met with a chorus of disapproval around the world. Among the loudest critics: China.As under the first two rounds of quantitative easing (beginning in March 2009 and November 2010) the Fed would print money and use the funds to buy bonds and mortgage-related securities - purchases aimed at lowering borrowing costs in the U.S. and stimulating the nations economy. But officials in Beijing have echoed criticism heard elsewhere around the world that QE2 has also triggered a sharp increase in world commodity prices and an influx of hot money into their country. They expect more of the same if there is a QE3. Experts are divided whether such concerns are justified.Tian Suhua, an international economics professor at Shanghai Fudan University, notes that the effect of QE2 has been greater than QE1. “The first round of QE only affected China through the trade channel, while in the second round, the ability of U.S. banks and mortgage companies to issue credit was strengthened, so the effect on China was amplified by the money multiplier,” he says.The QE2s primary effect is political, counters Charles Freeman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based public policy research center. “It is causing a lot of nervousness in Beijing about the long-term policy of the Fed concerning the dollar and the Chinese administration is worried that the U.S. will pursue a long-term weak dollar policy, says Freeman, a former assistant U.S. trade representative for China affairs. Recently, China stepped up pressure on the Treasury and the Federal Reserve by asking for reassurance that QE is only a short-term exercise.”Philip Swagel, former assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department in the U.S. and professor of international economic policy at University of Maryland, agrees that the economic impact of QE2 in general, and on China in particular, has not been as dramatic as it is often made out to be. “Chinese rhetoric is off the mark,” he says. “QE2 is mainly a signal that the Federal Reserve will not allow deflation and would act in greater strength had the economy not rebounded. In the end, it will have a modest effect on the domestic economy and the international spillover is also modest.”Inflation and AggravationYet even relatively small, the spillover comes at a sensitive time for many economies, including Chinas. Zheng Hui, finance professor at Shanghai Fudan University, says that since the first two rounds of quantitative easing, more U.S. dollars have been circulating in world markets, weakening the value of the dollar against other major currencies. Given that international commodities are priced in dollars, he says, everything from oil to sugar has become more expensive.In March, for example, the FAO Food Price Index - a measure of the monthly change in the international prices of a basket of food commodities - averaged230 points, down 2.9% from its peak in February, but 37% above March last year. Oil, meanwhile, hit $120 a barrel - the highest level in more than two years - though the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is the big factor influencing oil prices currently.Nonetheless, Zheng isnt alone in underscoring the extent to which accommodative policies, such as the Feds, should shoulder some of the blame for the rise commodity prices. As a report by the Bank of Japan notes, “Globally, accommodative monetary conditions have played an important role in the surge in commodity prices, both by stimulating physical demand for commodities and by driving more investment flows into commodity markets.”For China, that matters a lot. Its import-dependent economy is feeling the pinch of higher commodity prices amid concerns about major public backlashes about higher fuel and food bills. “China has few choices but to continue importing those global commodities,” says Zheng. “Even if crude oil prices and food prices keep soaring, China is unlikely to reduce its expenditures on these imports.”Yet according to University of Marylands Swagel, “Chinas own monetary policy is problematic in the first place and the biggest driver of inflation in China is the Chinese monetary policy. The main fact is that China is maintaining a weak yuan and the soft peg to the dollar forces China to have excessive liquidity that boosts inflation.”The countrys central bank, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), has been trying to combat inflation. In early April, for example, it raised the required reserve ratios of commercial banks and tightened credit, and it raised the benchmark one-year borrowing and lending interest rates by 25 basis points - the second time that it raised the benchmark interest rate this year and the fourth time since the start of last year. Around the same time, the PBOC also said it will allow the renminbi to be traded against a larger range of currencies than the current seven, including the U.S. dollar, which foreign exchange traders says will help reduce the greenbacks weight in determining the Chinese currencys value.Blame GameAs for the U.S., the QE2 was one of several policy levers pulled to improve the countrys economy. “Since the responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to regulate the economy, create jobs and move to full employment, the central question is, what means were available to accelerate the recovery in 2010?” asks I. M. (Mac) Destler, a professor at the University of Marylands School of Public Policy. He says the Fed was already keeping interest rates very low, leaving little room to lower rates further. “Another option at that time was a new stimulus bill. However, it seemed to be politically unlikely,” he notes. “Another round of QE was one of the few choices left.”But the timing of the QE2s unveiling was unfortunate,” coming as it did just days before the G20 Summit in Seoul in November, says Destler. But it made sense in terms of U.S. politics. The Fed does not want to look like it is partisan and supports a Democratic administration. Therefore, it announced QE2 immediately after the mid-term elections, which happened to be just before the Seoul summit.” When world leaders gathered in Seoul, several countries, including Brazil, India and South Korea, joined China in criticizing the U.S.s policy. “QE2 put the U.S. on the defensive in arguing with China to rebalance the world economy, he notes. Since China was unhappy about the QE, and other countries joined it in criticizing the Feds action, it was harder for the U.S. to get these countries to join in pushing China on other issues at Seoul, such as the currency appreciation.”Destler reckons that Bernanke made a mistake in not giving a serious international justification of QE2 in time, hence putting himself under international criticism. He should have explained that it was necessary for the Federal Reserve to implement QE2 to stimulate the U.S. economy, that the international spillover was manageable and the world would benefit from a stronger U.S. recovery,” he says.Third Time Lucky?Tian of Fudan University warns that the big danger of a QE3 is that it will challenge the credibility of the U.S. dollar. “If countries around the world bypass the U.S. dollar during international trade, dollars will flow back to the U.S and that would be a serious problem for the U.S.,” he says.Zheng of Fudan University notes that in the event of further easing by the Fed, China will most likely have to allow the RMB to appreciate. “A third round of QE equals another round of competitive depreciation of the U.S. dollar,” he says. “Since the RMB maintains a soft peg to the dollar, the RMBs exchange rate will also depreciate against other major currencies. Chinas major trading partners, such as Japan and the European Union, will suffer from an unfair trade disadvantage. In this sense, a third round of QE would exert additional pressure on Beijing to allow a faster pace of the RMB appreciation.”Enabling the RMB to appreciate further than it has in recent months might be good for Chinas economy, adds Swagel. “China should allow the RMB to appreciate,” he says. “A stronger Yuan will effectively reduce credit growth and curb inflation. Even if allowing for faster currency appreciation will have a negative impact on the export sector, China can still take action to keep its economy strong. ”According to online information provider Finance China, a senior researcher with the Development Research Center of Chinas State Council recently predicted that the impact of an RMB appreciation on export-oriented enterprises would not be as big as many fear. Though the price of exports would increase, an appreciation would also lower the cost of imports.As for whether QE3 could trigger more hot money flowing into China, recent data suggests the impact might be muted. A report published in February by FT China Confidential said the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange estimates that the amount of hot money currently reaching China through the capital account has decreased to around US$290 billion from US$1 trillion in 2009, indicating that even with the QEs, China has been able to handle the inflows effectively.Perhaps more telling about QE1, QE2, and the prospect of QE3, is the war of words unleashed by the worlds two largest economic heavyweights as a result. “The two countries are blaming each other for their problems,” says Swagel, “However, the fact is that China is not the main cause of U.S. problems and vice versa.”中文译文复苏模式：中国应该对美国的量化宽松政策感到担心吗？美联储主席本伯南克今年2月在华盛顿特区发表的一次演讲中谈到，尽管付出了各种努力，不过，这个国家的就业率回升到危机之前5%左右这一让人更宽慰的水平可能还需要很长的时间。演讲结束后，当被问及，目前这一轮政策在6月结束后，美联储是否有必要推出另一轮所谓的“量化宽松”政策时，伯南克回答说，“美联储将会按其以往的方式做出决策”也就是通过观察各种经济指标来做出决策，其中就包括失业率。几个月以来，美国的失业率一直徘徊在10%左右。如果美国的失业率持续高企，美联储出台第三轮量化宽松货币（QE）政策的可能性就将不断增加。但如果美国继续执行QE政策，将会在世界各地遭致抗议，其中的代表就是中国。前两轮量化宽松政策分别于2009年3月和2010年11月开始实施，期间，美联储大量印钞用以购买银行的债券以及抵押贷款证券购买的目的旨在刺激美国的经济发展，降低借贷成本。但是，全球各地都能听到这样的批评：第二轮量化宽松政策同样触发了全球商品价格的急剧飙升，北京的官员对此深表认同，并称，热钱因此流入了自己的国家。他们认为，如果出台第三轮量化宽松政策，也将会产生这样的结果。就这种担心的理由是否充分的问题，专家各执一词。上海复旦大学国际经济学教授田素华指出，第二轮量化宽松政策对中国的影响比第一轮更大。“第一轮量化宽松政策只是通过贸易渠道影响到了中国，而在实施第二轮量化宽松政策期间，美国的银行和抵押贷款公司发放信贷的能力得到了加强，所以，货币乘数放大了中国受到的影响。”他谈到。位于美国华盛顿特区的战略和国际研究中心的查尔斯弗雷曼则反驳说，第二轮量化宽松政策的主要影响是政治性的。“它让北京对美联储的美元长期政策颇感紧张，中国政府担心，美国会长期奉行弱势美元政策” 曾任职美国对中国事务贸易代表助理的弗雷曼谈到，“最近，中国对美国财政部和美联储施压，要求它们再次保证，量化宽松只是短期政策。”美国财政部负责经济政策的前助理部长、马里兰大学国际经济政策教授菲利普斯瓦格认为，第二轮量化宽松政策的总体影响，尤其是对中国的影响，并不像人们想象的那么显著。“中国的过度反应是毫无缘由的。”他谈到，“总体来说，这个政策是美联储发出的一个信号，它不能让美国发生通货紧缩，并且将有积极的表现如果美国经济未能反弹。最终，这一政策对于国内经济以及在国际社会造成的溢出效应也是相当有限的。”通货膨胀恶化然而，尽管该政策的影响相对较小，不过，对包括中国在内的很多经济体而言，溢出效应则是在一个敏感时期发生的。上海复旦大学的金融学教授郑辉认为，自前两轮量化宽松政策实施以后，在全球市场流通的美元更多了，从而降低了美元对其他主要货币的比价。他还谈到，因为国际商品是以美元定价的，所以，从石油到白糖，所有大宗商品的价格都上涨了。举例来说，3月，联合国粮农组织粮食价格指数记录一揽子食品国际价格每月变动情况的指标平均为230点，比2月的峰值下降了2.9%，但比去年3月则上涨了37%。与此同时，石油价格则触及到了每桶120美元的高位，这是两年多来的最高价格水平，当然，中东和北非地区的动荡也是影响目前石油价格的重要因素。然而，郑辉并不是唯一强调美联储这种宽松货币政策应该为商品价格的上涨承担某些负责的人。正如日本银行的一份报告指出的：“从全球来看，宽松的货币政策在商品价格的迅速上涨中扮演着重要的角色，这种政策既刺激了人们对商品的实际需求，同时也促使更多的投资流向了商品市场。”对中国来说，商品价格的变化非常重要。在担心公众对能源和食品的更高支出出现强烈反应的时候，高企的商品价格让这个依赖进口的经济体感到日子很不好过。“除了继续从全球进口这些商品以外，中国没有多少选择，”郑辉表示，“即使原油价格和食品价格不断攀升，中国也不太可能减少在进口这些商品上的开销。”然而，马里兰大学的斯瓦格认为，“中国自己的货币政策本身就存在问题，中国通货膨胀的最大驱动因素是中国的货币政策。中国一直让人民币保持弱势，并与美元软挂钩，从而，导致过多的货币在这个经济体系中流通，并最终抬高了通货膨胀。”这个国家的中央银行中国人民银行一直在与通货膨胀抗争。举例来说，4月初，它出台了提高商业银行存款准备金率的措施，以收紧信贷，同时，它还将一年期存贷款基准利率提高了25个基点，这是今年第二次提高基准利率，也是自去年年初以来的第四次提高基准利率。在此期间，中国人民银行还称，将允许人民币在更大范围内兑换，而不仅限于包括美元在内的七种货币。外汇交易员认为，这一举措有助于减少美元在决定中国货币价值上的权重。推卸责任对美国而言，第二轮量化宽松政策是用以提振这个国家经济的几种政策杠杆之一。“因为美联储的职责就是调节经济运行，创造就业机会以达到充分就业，所以，核心问题是，在当时，2010年，用以加速经济复苏的可用手段都