Preparing,For,Unknowns

1、PreparingjF。rjUnkn。wnsPreparing,For,UnknownsByZhangYanshengThenovelcoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)outbreakisamajorpublichealthcrisisunseeninabout100years.Thereisalsoapossibilitythatthediseasemaycontinuetoexistforalongtimetocome.Oneofthemosteffectiveapproachestotacklingthespreadofthevirusistoadoptwidesp

2、readlockdownstbutthismeasuretendstointerruptconsumption,investment,trade,logistics,thebusinessflow,aswellasindustrialandsupplychains.Thepost-pandemicworldwillthereforenotbethesameasitwasbefore.ReshapingworldorderTheworldhasbeenundergoingprofoundchangeswithincreasinguncertainties.TheEastwardshiftofth

3、eworldseconomiccenterofgravity,thedeclineoftheWestandtheriseofthedevelopingworldhavetriggeredanxietyinsome.Viciouscompetitionacrossscientificandindustriallandscapesamongmajoreconomieswillweakenimpetusforworldeconomicgrowth.Structuralandstrategicdecouplingisbecomingamajorthreat.Thesystemicrisksofglob

4、alizationareontherise.Deglobalizationandreglobalizationwillbecometwocoexistingtrends.Thedownwardtrendinglobalproductivitygrowthremainsunchanged,anditwilltaketimefornewtechnologiesandoutcomesoftheongoingindustrialrevolutiontobecomegrowthdrivers.Theglobalsupplychainsarefacingchallenges.Globalizationme

5、ansthatproductcomponentsaremanufacturedindifferentpartsoftheworld,thuszeroinventoryandjust-in-timedeliveryrepresentefficiency.WhenemergenciessuchastheCOVID-19pandemictakeatoll1Changing supply chainsExcessivesecurityconcernshaveincreasinglyhinderedkeylinksintheglobalindustrialandsupplychains,whichmay

6、forcecountriestoresorttoregionalizationlocalizationanddiversificationofproductioninthefuture.Geopoliticswillbecomemorecomplexandvolatile,whileoil,financialandfoodsecuritymaybecomecentralpointsofcontentionamongmajorpowers.TheCOVID-19pandemichasnotonlyintensifiedtheexistingconf1icts,butalsofueledcompe

7、titionbetweenpoliticalsystems.Chinacontainedthespreadoftheviruswitheffectivemeasuresinthefirstquarteroftheyear.Itseconomicandsociallifeisreturningtonormal,andthecountryisstrivingtomaintainpositivegrowthfor20XX.Incontrast,countriesinEuropeandtheU.S.maycontinuetostruggleundertheimpactofthepandemicinth

8、esecondandthirdquarters.Inthiscontext,theU.S.hasraiseddoubtsoverthetransparencyofChinasCOVID-19dataandquestionedthelegitimacyoftheresponsemeasuresthecountryhastaken.OnApril3,93U.S.bipartisan,formerhigh-rankinggovernmentofficialsandexpertsreleasedajointstatement,stressingthatnoeffortagainstthecoronav

9、iruswillbesuccessfulwithoutcooperationbetweentheU.S.andChina.Theunderpinningfoundationfortheircall,however,isinasensesimilartowhatunitedtheU.S.andtheSovietUnioninthefightagainstfascism-theirWorldWarIIvictoryonlypreludedtheColdWar.IftheU.S.takescollaborationwithChinatocontainthevirusasanactofexpedien

10、cy,itisasignthatpoliticalandeconomicwranglingamongmajorpowerswillintensifyinthepostpandemicperiod.UNSecretaryGeneralAntdnioGuterressaidthepandemiccouldbetheworstglobalcrisissinceWorldWarII.Ittookadirecthitonthethreemajorproductionnetworksintheworld,namely,EastAsia,EuropeandNorthAmerica.Thesharpdropa

11、ndinterruptionofoutputhavehadahugeandunpredictableimpactontheworldeconomyfromboththedemandandsupplysides.Moreover,sincethepandemichasseverelyshakenproducerandconsumerconfidence,isolationism,unilateralismandtradeprotectionismaremorerampantthanbefore.Internationaleconomicandtradefrictionsmayescalateag

12、ain,thusacceleratingtheretreatofglobalization.Morecountriesmayimplementstrategiestoensurethesecurityoftheirsupplychainsasapreemptiveresponsetomajorsystemicrisks.Duringthepandemic,sectorsthataredeeplyinvolvedintheindustrialdivision,withhighertechnicalandindustrialcomplexity,longersupplychainsandgreat

13、erdependenceontheglobalintegratedlogisticsnetwork,havebornethebruntoftheimpact.Therefore,itisexpectedthatlocalizingproductionofcoresegmentswillbecomeanewtrendafterthepandemicends.Scitechdeglobalizationisalsolikelytoexpandtomoresectors.Ononehand,thepandemichasboostedinternationalcooperationandcompeti

14、tioninvaccineanddrugresearchanddevelopment.Ontheotherhand,somecountriesshirkingofresponsibilityandshiftingblametoothersmayaggravateconfrontationamongcountries.Thetraditionalvaluechainswillacceleratetheiradjustment.Inthepast,theU.S.andEuropeprovidedmarketsandtechnologiestotheworld,butthepandemichasca

15、usedasharpdeclineintheirpurchasingpower.Thesupplyofkeypartsandcomponents,materials3andequipmentwasdisrupted,whichmayleadtotherelocationofsupplychainsandthepromotionofreindustrialization,apolicyofstimulatingeconomicgrowth,especiallythroughgovernmentaid,torevitalizeandmodernizeagingindustriesandencour

16、agegrowthofnewonesinanattempttoboosttherealeconomy.EastAsiahasbeenprovidingtheworldwithmanufacturingcapacityandlaborforces.ThepandemichasunderscoredtheimportanceforChina,Japan,theRepublicofKoreaandSoutheastAsiancountriestostrengthencooperationexpandregionaldemandinacoordinatedmanner,andworktogethert

17、ostabilizeregionalsupplychains,restoreindustrialchainsandupgradevaluechains.TheMiddleEastandotherdevelopingcountries,majorsuppliersofenergyandotherresources,arealsoexpectedtoboostthelocalizationofsupplyandindustrialchainsinthefuture.EastAsiaappearspoisedtobethefirstregiontocontainthespreadofthevirus

18、,withcompaniesintheregionresumingworkearlierthanthoseintheU.S.andEuropeancountries.ThiscanspeeduptheEastwardshiftofhigh-endmanufacturing,highendindustrialandconsumerservices,andhigh-qualityfactorsofproductionsuchastechnologies,dataandcapital.TheensuingchangesinthemodesofproductionwillmakeEastAsiaani

19、mportantengineofglobalgrowth.Afterthepandemic,multinationalsmayfurtherredistributetheirglobaloperationstopreventriskscausedbylongersupplychains,excessiveglobalizationofvaluechainsandclusteringofindustrialchains.Moreover,theregionalizationofsupplychainsislikelytogainprominence.Majorregionalfreetradea

20、greements,suchastheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP),theComprehensiveProgressiveTrans-PacificPartnershipandtheEU-JapanEconomicPartnershipAgreement,willreshapeglobalsupplyandindustrialchains.Amongthem,theRCEP,whichconsistsof15Asia-Pacificeconomies,isthemostinclusive,openanddiverseoneandc

21、anpotentiallyattractmoreinternationalcapitalandmultinationalstoparticipateinitsimplementation.TheBeltandRoadInitiativewillbecomeanewdriverforgrowth.Chinahascooperatedwithotherparticipatingcountriestobattlethevirus,resumeproductionandimprovepeopleslivelihood.Inaddition,theinitiativecanbealignedwithpublichealth,ecologicalandenvironmentalprotection，povertyreductionandsustainabledevelopmentpro