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1TEXTASurvivinganeconomiccrisis经济危机中求生存TheeconomicslumpsomanypeoplesufferedthroughoriginatedintheUnitedStates,witharegulatoryfailureofmortgagesratedlessriskythantheyturnedouttobe.Aslargenumbersofhomeownersprovedunabletorepaytheirloans,thecompaniesthathadtheoversightandthosethatownedtheloans(aswellastheirsubsidiariesandtheirshareholders)lostsizableamountsofmoney.TheeffectsofthesedrasticlossessoonspiraledintotheUSjobmarketaslayoffsandterminations.Thereboundwasslowincoming.Manypeopleexperiencedlongmonthsofstrugglesjustlikethecharacterinthisstory.〔以及其子公司及股份持有者如下面故事中的仆人公那样。Facingtenantevictionafterseveralmonthsofunpaidrent,SueJohnsonpackedupwhatevershecouldfitintohertwo-doorautomobileanddroveoutoftown.苏·约翰逊有好几个月都未付房租了,面临着被逐出的境地,她把能塞进她的那辆双门轿车的东西都打包整理好,离城而去。Shewoundupatamotel,puttingdownthe$260shehadmanagedtoscrapetogetherfromfriendsandfromsellingherlivingroomset.ItwasallthemoneySuehadleftafterherunemploymentbenefitshadexpired.Shefacedlifeasamigrant,apreviouslyunimaginablesituationforawomanwho,notthatlongbefore,hadheldacorporatejobinalargemetropolitancityandwasenrolledinagraduatebusinessschool.260象的,而她不久以前都还在大都市里一家公司供职,并就读于商学院争论生班。Sueknewthatinalllikelihood,shewouldenduplivinginhercar.Shewaspartofahard-luckgroupofjoblesspeoplewhocalledthemselves“99ers“,becausetheyhadexhaustedthemaximum99weeksofunemploymentinsurancebenefitsthattheycouldclaim.苏明白自己最终很可能以车为家。她如今已成为倒霉的失业群体中的一份子,他们自称“99周人”99周的失业保险救济金。Long-termunemploymentwasatrecordlevels,accordingtotheBureauofLaborStatistics.Modestpaymentsofunemploymentbenefitswerealifelinethatenabledpeoplewhowereout-of-worktomaintainatleastanappearanceofnormalcy,keepingaroofovertheirheads,puttinggasintheircars,payingelectricandphonebills.电费话费。Withoutthechecks,peoplelikeSue,whooncewasadirectorofclientservicesatatechnologycompany,begantotumbleovertheeconomiccliff.Thelastaspectsoftheirformerworking-classormiddle-classlivesweregone,andallofthemfacedunsurefutures.卜。WhenSuereceivedherlastunemploymentcheck,shefeltawaveofprofoundgrief.Withnoincometodeposit,Sue”scheckingaccountdeterioratedintonegativebalances.Hercarwasonthevergeofbeingrepossessed.And,theconstantharassmentofthefinancingcompanyforhercarloanaddedtoherdailystress.Eachday,likeapingpongball,Suewentbackandforthbetweenresolveanddespair.余额转为负值。汽车行将被收回!而且信贷公司不断骚扰,催还车贷,让她成天压力倍增。每天,苏就像乒乓球一样在信念和无望之间起落不定。Itwasasickeningplungeconsideringthatonlyashortyearandahalfbefore,Suewasearning$56,000ayearatheroldjob,enjoyedvacationinginplaceslikeMexicoandtheCaribbean,andhadstartedbusinessschoolatanexcellentuniversity.56,000美元的年薪,可在像墨西哥、加勒比那样的地方度假,还就读于名校商学院。Initially,Suehadtriedtofinishheruniversitycertificationremotely,butfinallydroppedoutbecauseofthestressfromhersinkingfinances.Sheappliedforeverypossiblejobintheemploymentspectrum,fromminimum-wageretailjobstodirectorpositions.最初,苏还试图通过远程教育完成学业,但是由于自己经济状况每况愈下,最终只好辍学。她通过各种就业渠道求职,不管是起薪干起的零售活儿还是部门经理。Sueshouldhavebeenevictedfromhertwo-bedroomapartmentfornon-paymentseveralmonthsbeforeshewas,but,thankfully,theprocesswasdelayedbypaperworkandbureaucracy.Eventually,thebureaucracycaughtupwithherandamunicipalcouncilgaveher10daystoleaveherapartmentforgood.Shehadnochoicebuttocomply.限定她十天内彻底走人。除了遵从,她别无选择。Thatlastdayofheroldlife,Sueweptasshedroveaway.Shewonderedifshewouldeveragainbeabletoreclaimthatlifeofcomfortandrespect.Sueevenconsideredturningthesteeringwheelofhercarintoatreeandendingherlifestoryrightthere.人敬重的生活。苏甚至想过打转方向盘一头撞向大树,就此了结一生。Friendscametoheraid.Onefriendwiredher$200whileshewasdrivingawayfromheroldapartment,enablinghertofindrefugeinamotelalongtheway.ButSueworriedtherewouldn”tbeanymorecharityforthemoneyandgasshedesperatelyneeded.200能够在沿途的一家汽车旅馆觅得栖身之所油了。Helpedbygascardsdonatedbyachurch,Suedecidedtoreturntoherhometown.Shefiguredthehealth-caresafetynettherewasbetter,aswellasthejobmarket.Shecontactedalocalshelterbutlearnedtherewasawaitinglist.Welfarewasnotanoption,becauseshedidn”thaveyoungchildren.And,Sueknewthatnoneofherthreeadultsonswereinapositiontohelpher.由于她没有未成年的孩子。苏知道她的三个已成年的儿子也帮不了她。“IknewtheonlyhelpIwasgoingtogetwasfrommemyself,“Suesaid.“Ithoughttomyself:Ihavetotakecareofmyself.Ireally,reallyneedtogetwork.Ineedajob.Idon”twanttobeseenasaparasite.““我知道,只有自己才能帮自己,”苏说。“我告知自己:我得养活自己。我确实得干活,我要找份工作,我可不想被人看成寄生虫。”Sue”smotelroomwasdepressing.Liningtheshelvesunderneaththetelevisionwereherfoodsupplies:riceandnoodlesthatshemixedwithwaterinthemotel”sicebucketandheatedupinamicrowave;peanutbutterandjelly;aloafofwhitebread—thesubsistenceofadesperateperson.Sue”sdayswerespentsurfingInternetjobindexesandapplyingforjobswherethesilent“No.““No.““No.“gavewaytoafeelingofhelplessness.面包——这些食物也就供一个走投无路的人牵强度日而已指南,四处求职;但一次次无声的拒绝让她陷于无助。Suehadallnewstrugglesandobstaclestodealwithtoo,likewhattodoforanaddressforjobapplications.Sheworriedaboutwhatwouldhappenwhenhercellphonewascutofffornon-payment,andcallstohernumberwoulddisappearintoaninvisibleworldshecouldnotreach.停机了怎么办?别人拨打她的号码,就如石沉大海,她无法接听。Finally,anoldfriendsentSuearayofhope,asmallmiracle:$300cash—justenoughforanotherbrutalweekofstruggle.最终,一位老朋友送来一缕期望,一个小小的惊喜:300美元的现金——牵强够她再苦撑一周。TEXTBEconomicbubbles:Causesandconditions经济泡沫:成因与条件Economicbubblesoccurwhen,foranynumberofreasons,excessiveinvestmentincommodities(suchasoil),securities(suchasstocksandbonds),realestate,orcollectiblesdrivesuppriceswellbeyondtheitem”sintrinsicvalue.Theinevitableresultofthisboominpriceisacrashorbust.Thepricefallssharplyonceitbecomesclearthatithasgrownfarbeyondthepurchasingpowerofpotentialcustomers.不管由于何种缘由,一旦人们对于商品〔如石油、证券〔如股票、债券、房地产或保藏品暴涨不行避开的结果就是经济的崩溃或破灭,价格就会急剧下跌。Speculatorsriskmoneyinsuchinvestmentsbecausetheyhopethatthepriceofanassettheypurchasedwillquicklyincrease.Sincemostspeculatorsarenervousaboutwheretheyinvesttheirmoney,bubblesarebynomeansthenorm.Afterall,everyinvestmententailstheriskthatitisoverpriced.Theyalsoknowthatrisingpriceswillencourageeithergreaterproductionofacommodityorgreaterwillingnessofcurrentownerstosell.Eitheroftheseconditionscanserveasa“negativefeedback“mechanismthatadjustspricesdownward.Asananalogy,thinkofnegativeeconomicfeedbacklikeyoureyes.Asthelightgetsbrighter,yourpupilsgetsmallerandletinlesslight.Butwhatif,instead,youreyesworkedasa“positivefeedback“mechanism?Insunlight,yourpupilswouldopenwideanddamageyoureyes.投机者们由于期望购置的资产价格能够急剧上涨才进展这样的风险投资卖出。不管哪种状况都会有助于形成促使价格下行的“负面反响”机制。打个比方,把负面经是“正面反响”Economicbubblesoccurwhenpricestrendingsharplyupwardspurpositive,ratherthannegative,feedback.Forwhateverreason(fearofshortages,greed,anexcessivelyoptimisticattitudetowardthefuture,orflawsintheanalysisofanasset”sunderlyingvalue),buyersbelievethatthevalueoftheassetwillcontinuetorise.Ifthepricerises,overlyenthusiasticspeculatorsbuymore,orthosewhomissedoutonthelowerpriceflocktobuybeforethepricerisesanyhigher.Theforemostexplanationisthe“greaterfooltheory“:Buyersjustifytheirpurchasesbyassuringthemselvestheywillfind“agreaterfool“whowillpayevenmore.Buyerenthusiasminfectsotherbuyers,amplifyingtheeffectevenfurther.Undertherightconditions,pricescanreachdizzyingheightsbeforefalling.Onefamousexampleisthetulip-buyingbubblewhichhappenedinAmsterdaminthe1630swhenasingletulipbulbcouldcostayear”ssalary.——不管何种缘由,购置者信任其价值会持续上行。假设价格上涨,狂热的投机者就会买入更多,或者那些错过低价买入的人就会在价格进一步攀升之前蜂拥入市。对此现象的解释莫过于“博傻理论”:买入方深信自己能找到下一个甘愿出更高价格的冤大头,从而认为自己的买卖是合理1730年月发生在阿姆斯特丹的郁金香抢购泡沫,当时,一株郁金香球茎的价格相当于一年的工资。Mostbubblesareeasilyassimilatedoravertedbyanelasticmarket.Providedthebubbleissmallenough,thelosersearnwisdominretrospect,andthewinnersearnalotofmoney.Buttheeffectsofabubblemightbecomecumulativeifmanyownersofanoverpricedassetfeelrichandspendfoolishly,especiallyinaperiodofderegulation.Imaginethis:Youbuyahousefor$200,000,forwhichyouborrowed$160,000beforehand.Youhave$40,000inequityinthehouse.Overthenextfiveyears,themarketappraisalrisesto$500,000.Nowyouhave$340,000inequity($500,000–$160,000),soyouborrowanother$240,000fromabankusingthisequitytosecuretheloan.Youstillhave$100,000inequityinyourhome,andyouhave$240,000tospend.Yousuddenlyfeellessneedtobeeconomicalwithyourpurchasesandallocatemoremoneyforthingslikeavacationhome,anewcar,etc.大多数的泡沫简洁被弹性市场加以消化或转移。只要这种泡沫不是很大,输家花钱买聪明,200,000160,00040,000美元。五年过后,市场估价上升到500,000美元。现在你获得的房产净值就是340,000美元〔$500,00$160,000,于是你以此作担保,再贷款240,000美100,000240,000美元可供花销。赶忙,你会觉得没有必要节约开支,还能抽出更多钱来购置度假屋及车等等。Butequityisnotrevenue.Themarketholdslongenoughforyoutospendthemoney.Thenitcrashesandthevalueofyourhomefallsto$325,000.Nowyouhavenegativeequityandowethebankalmost$400,000.Soyoudefaultonyourloanandgiveyourhouse,car,andvacationhometothebank.Ifthissituationiswidespread,itcanculminateinthefailureofthosebanksandaseverecrackdownonthelendingneededtogrowtheeconomy.但房产净值并不是收益。市场长期保持稳定,让你有足够的时间花钱。后来,市场崩溃,你325,000美元。你现在持有的房产净值为负,倒欠银行将近400,000美元。为此,你就停顿还款,将房子、车子和度假屋等交给银行。此种情形一旦集中,终会让银行难以为继,并最终沉重打击进展经济所需的贷款业务。Therearealsostockmarketbubbles.Inanormalmarket,investorsbuystockinacompanybecausetheyanticipatethatfutureprofitswillbecomedividendsandtheybelievethevalueofthecompany”sassetswillincrease.Sometimes,though,a“herdmentality“setsinandtoomanybrokersrushtobuy,drivingpriceslikemercuryupathermometertolevelsthatproveunrealistic.Eventuallyitbecomesclearthatfurtherincreasesarenotforthcomingandpricedeteriorationdevelops,followedbyaswiftdrop.Whenthishappenstotoomanycompaniesinaggregate,itiscalledastockmarketcrash.“羊群效应”,众多经纪人蜂拥热购,股价就像温度计里的水银被一路推至虚高。最终,形势变得明白:股价不再上涨,演化为股价下挫,暴跌也随之而来。当这种状况集中爆发于众多的公司时,就被称为股市崩盘。Arecentstockmarketbubblewasthe“dot-com“bubble.ThebuzzabouttheeconomicpossibilitiesoftheInternetencouragedinvestorstofundthecreationofmanydot-comcompanies—toomanyitturnedout.Forseveralyears,dozensofentrepreneurssoughttoduplicateforthem
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