ITIF-创新放大器：在温室气体减排方面取得更多成功

InnovationAmplifiers:GettingMoreBang

fortheBuckonGHGReductions

EDRIGHTOR|JULY2023

ThepaceofGHGreductionsneedstogreatlyaccelerate.Recentinvestmentsareagreatstartbutarenotsufficient.Weneedtoamplifythecurrentinvestmentstoachievecleanenergyasthenormandimprovecompetitiveness.

KEYTAKEAWAYS

1ThepaceofglobalGHGreductionsisfarfromwhat’sneededtostabilizetheclimate.Emissionsaregoingupincontrasttoprojectionsandcommitmentsthatthey’dbegoingdown.

1ThetaxincentivesintherecentIRAlegislationwillexpandcleanenergygeneration,distribution,andusebutareinsufficienttodrivetheRD&Dneededtodecreasethecostsoflow-carbontechnologies,supportinfrastructure,andimplementsolutions.

1Forthecurrentportfolioofinvestments,DOEandotheragenciesneedtocapturesignificantlymorevaluefromtheresourcestheycommitbyadoptingknowledgeandapplicationamplifierswithgoal-directedresearch.

1DOEshoulddevelophighleveragecapabilities(e.g.,electrochemistry,composites,energystorage);pursuescienceandengineeringtoaddresscrosscuttingconstraints;andrallydiversecollaboratornetworksfocusedonaudaciousgoals.

1DOEalsoshouldencouragespilloversintoadjacentorunseenapplicationsandmarkets;increaseoutreachandtransparencytoengageecosystemsofcollaborators;andusetheinvestmentsinhydrogenandCCUShubstoutilizearangeofamplifiers.

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CONTENTS

KeyTakeaways 1

ExecutiveSummary 2

Introduction 3

WhatIsanAmplifier? 4

ImprovedClarityandFewerConstraints 4

KnowledgeSpillovers 5

ApplicationSpillovers 5

ClearSolutionPaths 5

StrategicUseofResources 6

IntersectionalThinking 6

SupportNetworks 6

Goal-DirectedResearch 7

HowCanWeFosterAmplifiers? 7

HowAreDOE,DOD,andOtherAgenciesUsingAmplifiers? 9

HowCouldAmplifiersMaximizetheImpactofRecentFunding? 11

ConclusionsandRecommendations 13

Endnotes 15

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Theworldisbehindthecurveinaddressingclimatechange.Weneedtoamplifytheimpactofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)reductioninitiatives.DespiterecenthistoricUnitedStatesinvestmentstospurcleanenergytechnologies,wesimplycan’treduceGHGsfastenoughwiththelimitedresourcescommittedglobally—andadditionalmassivefundingisunlikely.WeneedbiggerandfasterGHGreductionsfromthefundsalreadycommitted.Buthow?

PursuingamplifiersisanunderutilizedapproachthatcouldcascadeGHGreductionsinmultipleareassimultaneously.Amplifiersleverageresourcesandknowledgetogreatlyincreaseimpact,removeconstraints,orexpandapplications.Theyspurcreativethinkingthatleadstoinnovativesolutionstotoughproblems.Amplifierssuchasspilloversincreasetheimpactofinnovations.Forexample,lithium-ionbatteriesdevelopedforsmallconsumerelectronicsaremakinganevenlargerimpactpoweringelectricvehiclesandstationarybatteries.Lookingahead,innovationsincorecapabilitiessuchaselectrochemistrycouldamplifyGHGreductionsinbatteries,hydrogenfuelcells,andwaterelectrolyzers,andconvertingcarbondioxide(CO2)intovalue-addedproducts.

Likeincreasingthepowerofamplifiersataconcert,weneedto“crankitup”intermsofGHGreductions.TheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)andresearchpartnerscangetmorebangforthebuckfromrecentinvestmentsbypursuingamplifiersin“EnergyEarthshots.”

1

DOEshould

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engagediverseinnovatornetworksacrossmultiplepartnerstodevelopandapplyexpertisewithhighleveragepotential(e.g.,electrochemistry,compositematerials,separations,energystorage).

MakingbigGHGreductionsfastisvital.UsingamplifierstodeliverthosebiggerreductionsfasterwillbecrucialtoachievingaudaciousGHGreductionandsustainabilitygoals.

INTRODUCTION

SocietyiswaybehindthepacewhenitcomestoGHGreductionsneededtoavoidtheworstimpactsofclimatechange.

2

Recentinvestmentsprovideastartforthetransformationrequiredbutarefarfromthelevelcurrentlyneeded.Onewaytoachievefargreaterimpactfromthelimitedresourcesavailable—get“morebangforthebuck”—isbyidentifyingandpursuingamplifierstoincreaseleverageandmarketpull.

Thescaleofthetransformationneededacrossenergysystems,manufacturing,buildings,transportation,supplychains,andthewaythatpeopleuseenergyiscolossal.Theresourcescommittedtothisradicalchangeinaverycompressedtimewindowarelimitedconsideringthescaleofthechangeneeded.Thisisaglobalproblem,andthelevelofglobalinvestmentneededwillbeenormous,buttheconsequencesofnotmakingthetransformationareunthinkable.Estimatesoftheglobalinvestmentneededareabove$130trillionthrough2050.

3

Between2021and2025,$2.6trillionperyearisneeded—andthisincreasesbeyond2025to$4.5trillion/year.Bycomparison,the$35billionauthorizedforcleanenergytechnologyismerelyablip.

4

Andprospectsforadditionalfundinginthenextfewyearsaredim,somakingthemostofthelimitedfundsisvital.

Gettingmorebangforthebuckmatters,astheinnovationsneededtoenablethetechnologicalchangeareenormousandlow-carbontechnologiesneedtogettopriceandperformanceparitywithincumbentsolutionsfast

.6

Thiswillrequirelargeanddurableresearch,development,anddemonstration(RD&D)investmentsasadoptionfacesdisplacingwell-entrenched,less-expensivetechnologiesandprocesses.Sectorssuchasindustry,aviation,andmarineareveryheterogeneous,whileintegration(e.g.,complexlinkagesbetweeninputsandoutputs)andrisksforimplementationarehigh.

Theneedsforinnovationtoachievenet-zeroemissionsareprofound.Nearlyhalfthetechnologiesneededtoreachnetzeroby2050arestillinprototypeordemonstrationstage.

5

Sectorssuchasindustry,aviation,andmarineareevenmoredependentonemergenttechnologies.Acceleratedadoptionwillrequiredemonstrationsinmultipleconfigurations,applications,andregionalcontexts,soinnovationinimplementationisimportanttoo.

Thelow-carbonapproachesfortransitioningenergyusesuchasrenewablehydrogen,convertingCO2intousefulproducts,electrifyingmanufacturingprocesses,andmitigatingremainingemissionsfromhard-to-abateprocessesbycarboncaptureutilizationandstorage(CCUS)aresignificantlymoreexpensivethanincumbentsolutions.Thatpricegapwillleadtoslowadoption,whichmeansit’sessentialtoreachpriceparitywhiledeliveringthesameperformance.

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There’sacriticalneedtoamplifyoureffortsgivenlimitedresources,ashorttimewindow,andmyriadadoptionchallenges.

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Goal-DirectedResearch

Knowledge

Spillovers

Support

Networks

Intersectional

Thinking

ClearSolutionPathways

ThisreportexploreshowtoidentifyandpursueamplifierstoaccelerateGHGreductions,highlightingpolicyenablersandwaysagenciescanexpandtheimpactoffundsprovidedbytheInflationReductionAct(IRA)andBipartisanInfrastructureLaw(BIL).

WHATISANAMPLIFIER?

Amplifiersareapproachestoprogrammanagementthatleverageresourcesandknowledgetogreatlyincreasetheimpactofinputs,removeconstraints,orexpandarangeofapplications.InthecontextofGHGreductions,anamplifiergreatlyexpandsthemagnitudeofemissionsreductionsfortheresourcesavailable.

Figure1

showstheseveralcategoriesofamplifiers,followedbyillustrativeexamplesforeach.Butastherearemanywaysamplifierscanbecreativelyapplied,thislistisnotmeanttobeexhaustive.

Figure1:Categoriesofamplifiers

Improved

Clarity,Fewer

Constraints

Strategic

Resources

ImprovedClarityandFewerConstraints

Therearemultiplewaysinwhichremovalofconstraints(capital,risk,technicalissues,etc.)andimprovedclaritycanyieldamplifiedimpact.OperationWarpSpeed(OWS)intheUnitedStateswassuccessfulinremovingRD&DandregulatoryrisktoaccelerateCOVID-19vaccinedevelopment.

7

RD&Doftenhasassociatedrisksregardingwhetherofferingswillmeettheneedsofcustomersandifthey’llpurchasetheproductdeveloped.Thegovernmentlargelyeliminatedthoserisksbyguaranteeingthepurchaseofthevaccinesandprovidingfinancingregardlessofregulatoryapproval.Normalregulatoryprocessesformedicalproductscantakeyears—acloudof

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uncertaintyforproductdevelopers’approvaltimingandapplicationconstraints.Thegovernmentminimizedtheserisksbyfast-trackingapprovalforthevaccinesandaidedcontractinganddistribution,furtherminimizingrisks.Multipleagenciesandprivatesectorcompaniespartneredtospeeddevelopmentanddeploymentwhileeffectivelyaddressinghurdles.

TheDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA)playedanearlyrolebyseeingthepotentialforthemRNAtechnologyforvaccines,supportingdevelopment,buildingnetworksofresearchers,andloweringtechnicalrisks—startingeightyearsbeforethepandemic.

8

DARPAhasahistoryofpioneeringinnovationsthathavebeenpickedupbymarkets.ExamplesincludetheInternet,miniaturizedglobalpositioningsystem(GPS)devices,unmannedaerialvehicles(drones),andflatscreendisplays.

9

KnowledgeSpillovers

Spilloversincreasetherateoflearningandapplicationinareasthatwerenottheoriginaltargetofinnovationactivity.

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Knowledgespilloversincorporatenewprinciplesintootherapplicationsincreasingtherateofinnovationinthenewarea.Oneexample,asnotedistheadoptionofsemiconductormanufacturingprocessesandleveragedsiliconproductionwithphotovoltaic(PV)cells.ThiscontributedtothedominanceofPVs(overcompetingthinfilms)after2000withpolysiliconcostsdroppingto10percentthatofthe1975level.9Anotheraspectofthesespilloversoccurswhenresearcherspursueinnovationsinunfamiliarfieldsinwhichtheycandevelopnewinsights.Theseinterloperscanbe“cross-pollinators”thathelpdevelopinnovativeideas.

11

Thediversityinthinkingattheintersectionoffields,culture,andexperiencescanyielduniqueperspectives.Forexample,theemergencyroom(ER)staffatahospitalwhowereseekinginnovative,nontraditionalmethodstominimizemistakesobservedcarracingpitcrewsunderpressure—notERsatotherhospitals.

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ApplicationSpillovers

Applicationspilloversinvolveatechnologydevelopedforoneapplicationbeingpickedupbyanotherapplicationoradjacentmarket.Forexample,gasturbinesoriginallydevelopedandappliedforjetengineswerelateradaptedfornaturalgasturbines.

13

Spilloverscanshareacommonscientificbase,manufacturingtechniques,andoperationskills.ThemultitudeofapplicationspilloversfromtheNASAmoonshotsareprimeexamples.

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TheincreasedimpactsandacceleratedspeedfromspilloverswerealsoimportantfortherapidpreparationofmaterialsforWorldWarII,wheretheyenabledcollaborationtoturnfailuresintosuccessesinotherapplicationsandacceleratedprogressinthefaceofscarceinputs.

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ClearSolutionPaths

Amplifierscanalsorevealnewknowledgethatallowsforaclearerpathtosolutions.ThedevelopmentofvaccinesbyOWSenabledthemappingofsupplychainsfortherapidmanufacture,transportation,anddeploymentofvaccines.Thismappingwasakeypartoftherapidresponsetothepandemic,asitidentifiedvulnerabilitiesandwasusedalongwithmanufacturingforecastingandinvestingtoclosegapsbeforetheyarose

.7

ThisalsouncoveredthatPfizerknewitssupplychain,asdidSanofi,butknowledgeoftheentiresupplychainneededformanufactureanddistributionwasunknown.Thisisanexampleoffindingclarityonhowtoutilizeacomplexproductionanddeliveryprocessmoreeffectivelyfromendtoend.

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Therearealsoexampleswhereinnewinsightscancomefrommoreclearlyseeinghowtoorchestratesolutionsincomplex,nonlinear,ormultivariatesystems.Analysesofpatentsassociatedwithcomplexareasshowthedisproportionatebenefitsofscienceuncoveringpreviouslyunrecognizedrelationships.Sciencecanhelpinventorsbothfindtheirwaytounfamiliarplacesandconvinceothersthatwhattheyfoundisvaluable.

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StrategicUseofResources

Greaterimpactisrealizedwhenthevalueisleveragedacrossmultipleorganizations.Forexample,acompanywiththerightstobuildroads,bridges,orcommunicationsnetworkscanoperatemoreefficientlyinmovingitsgoodsorinformation.Thisimpact,however,canbefargreaterifthetechnologyissharedamongmultiplecompaniesconnectingmoreproducers,sellers,andendconsumers.Inanotherexample,systemsengineeringchallengeswerenotreadilydivisibleduringtechnologydevelopmentassociatedwithWWII,sothedevelopmentofradarwasconcentratedattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology

.15

Conversely,paralleleffortswerefavoredforfissionandthedevelopmentofpenicillinandmedicinestoaddressmalaria.

IntersectionalThinking

FransJohannsen,inTheMediciEffect,explainedthatincreasedcreativitycomeswhentalentedpeoplewithdifferentbackgroundsanddisciplinescollaborate,yieldingstep-changeimprovements

.11

Creativitywillflourishwhenpeoplewithdiversebackground,cultures,educations,andvaluescollaborate.Attheseintersectionsofthinking,newapproachesandbreakthroughscanoccur.Peopleoutsideacertainfieldofstudydon’thavethesameassumptionsorareabletochallengethosealreadypresent,andideascanbecombinedinnewways.

DARPApromotesthisintersectionalityintheteamstheybuildandinteractionstheyspuramongnetworks.TheAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency-Energy(ARPA-E)promotesitattheirinnovationsummitswheretechnologydevelopersfromallovertheglobeworkingondiverseproblemshaveanopportunitytointeract

.7

SuccessesfromtheARPA-Eprogramincludewide-bandgapsemiconductorsandmobiledetectionformethaneleakdetectionamongthe135companies,morethan1,000patents,andover300licensesresultingfromsupportedprograms.

17

SupportNetworks

Supportnetworksenabletherapidexchangeofknowledgeandspurcreativitybetweenresearchersinoverlappingdisciplines,encouragingcross-fertilizationandinnovation.Whenthesenetworksarefocusedonacommongoal,progresscanbeacceleratedbythecommunityofcollaboratorsthatexpandexpertiseanddrivedurableprogress.

Forexample,DARPAisknownforbuildingstrongnetworksofcollaboratorsthatfocusonagoal,withthenetworkstappingabroadrangeofexpertiseanddisciplines.7Thenetworkscanrangefromacademiatoemergingtechnologyfirmsthatlackexperienceasdefensecontractors.Inanotherexample,theUnitedStatesgovernmentspurredthedevelopmentofpublic-privatenetworksleadingtonumerousPVinventions/innovationsinthe1970s.7However,atthesametime,asimilarfederalprogramencouragingpublic-privatenetworksandinnovationecosystemstodrivetheapplicationoftechnologywaslargelyabsent,allowingGermany,Japan,andSpaintohavetheupperhandininstallationspercapita.

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Goal-DirectedResearch

Creativeinnovationwillmakethegreatestdifferenceinaddressingclimatestabilization,ifdirectedtowardthatcause.Thisalignswithpriorlearnings.Goal-directedresearchwasvitaltotheUnitedStatesOfficeofScientificResearchandDevelopment(OSRD)developmentofinnovativesolutionstochallengesduringWWIIsuchastheManhattanProject.12Thatexperiencealsoshowedthetensionsbetweentheneedsforveryrapidinnovationinmultipleareas,severetimeconstraints/urgency,limitedresources,andhighcosts.Discoveringunusualcombinationsofideasviaamplifiersmayberelativelyinexpensive,butcommercializingthosebreakthroughsmayrequiremoretimetofullydeploy,astheseuniquesolutionsarestillrelativelynewanduntested.

TheHumanGenomeproject’ssuccesswithprivateRD&Ddirectedtowardasocietalgoalchangedthewaybiomedicalresearchisstructured.

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Theevolutionof“grandchallenges”providesadditionalsteeringforresearch.

19

Thenotionofchallenge-basedresearchhasbeenpickedupinEuropetocreatearesearchagendawithsocietyandactiveparticipantstakeholders.

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HOWCANWEFOSTERAMPLIFIERS?

Thereareseveralroutestobolsteramplifiers.Projectsandeventsthatgatherexpertsfromdifferentfieldsofstudyencouragecross-fertilizationofideas,learning,andcollaborationsthatleadtonewcombinationsofapproachestosolutions.

Gatheringinnovatorsinmultiplefieldsacrossart,sciences,literature,etc.harkensbacktotheMedicis,awealthybankingandmerchantfamilythatspurredinnovationin16thcenturyFlorenceviathismethod.TheresultingnexusofintellectualthinkingcontributedtoEurope’s renaissance.

21

Thecollisionofdifferentperspectives,lifeexperiences,andculturescanleadtoexperimentationoutsidetheboundsofpreviousthoughtpatterns—whichsometimesareconstrainedbytheestablished“rules”ofafieldofpractice.Peoplethatconsiderproblemsinareasthatarenewtothemdon’thavethebiasesandthereforedon’thavetounlearn“traditional”learning.Thisallowspeopleworkingattheseinterfacestospontaneouslyconnectdisparateconcepts,ideas,ingredients,approaches,etc.

Diversenetworks,collaborations,andpartnershipsformwhenpeoplewithdivergentexperiencesandperspectivescometogether.Akeytofosteringintersectionalthinkingistogatherpeoplefromdifferentfieldsandfocustheircreativethinkingonachallenge(e.g.,goal-directedRD&D).Peoplewhoarenaturallycuriousandinterestedintopicsbeyondtheirexpertiseandtraining—andasklotsofthought-provokingquestionsandenjoypursuingthem—aregoodcandidates.

ThestrategyoffosteringnetworksiscentraltoDARPA,anditintentionallybringstogetherarangeofexpertsfrommultipledisciplinesandfocusesthemonachallenge.

22

ThismodelisalsoemployedintheNationalNetworkforManufacturingInnovation(NNMI),wheretheinvolvementofnetworkstoaddresscrosscuttingopportunitiesisrecognized.

23

Expansionofnetworkstoincludeinternationalpeersinoverlappingfieldscanspeedthetransferofknowledge,identifyinnovationgaps,andavoidduplicationofefforts.ExistingmultilateralprogramsincludetheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA’s)technologycollaborationprograms,MissionInnovation,andtheCleanEnergyMinisterial.6

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Spurringdevelopmentofnewinsightsincomplexareasisanotherroute.Thiscanoccurinareasthatarewellcovered—wherenewapproaches,tools,orre-examinationofassumptionscanyieldnewpathstosolutions.Oritcanoccurinunexploredareas.Theimprovedabilitytomodelmyriadparametersquicklywithemergingartificialintelligence(AI),machinelearning,quantumcomputing,etc.isexpectedtoprovidegreaterunderstandingofhowtooptimizecomplexsystemsanddynamicallyadjusttochangingmarketneedsandopportunities.Understandinghowtoconnectmarketpushandpullmechanisms,andhowtooptimizeinteractionsacrosscomplexsupplychains,presentsadditionalopportunitiesinthisarea.

24

Expandingaccesstoinformationorusingthevoluminouslevelofdigitaldataavailabletoidentifytrendsandinterpretthemformorerapiddecision-makingfitshereaswell.

Encouragingnewapproachesandbusinessmodelsisyetanotherapproach.Forexample,increasingthescaleofproductionaidstheabilityofcompaniestocompete.Thisleadstolargerandlargerfacilitiesincentralizedlocations.Thepandemic,however,exposedseveralsupplychaingapswiththatmodelandinherentvulnerabilitieswithjust-in-time-delivery.Aconverseapproachispursuingsmallermodularunitsclosertocustomers(shortersupplychains)thatarenimblerandcanachievescalebystackingproductionfromidenticalunits.Thosepursuingdistributedmanufacturingtouttheincreasedopportunitiesforradicallydifferentbusinessmodelsinwhichdata-drivenopeninnovationprovidesgreaterflexibilityandtheabilitytocustomize,andmeetfastdeliveryrequirementsofcustomers.

25

Inspiringthedevelopmentofdeepexpertiseinareaswithbroadapplicabilityiscentraltoamplification.Therearemultipleopportunitieswheresharedexpertisecouldbenefitcleanenergyinnovation.Forexample,theareaofelectrochemistryiscentraltoinnovationinbatteries,electrolyzers(e.g.,generationofrenewablehydrogen),fuelcells,andmanyothercleantechnologyapplications.9Developmentofexpertiseinthisareaandencouragingexpertstomovefromoneapplicationareatoanotherisawaytoencourageinnovation.Otherareaswhereexpertisecouldbecentraltoinnovationscouldincludeenergystorage,separations,lightweightmaterials,quantumcomputing,AI,advancedmanufacturing/automation,andbiotechnology.

Supportingearlymarketsiskey.It’schallengingforentrepreneurstocommercializeinventions.Encouragementintargetedareasofmarketorsocietalchallengescandecreasethehurdlesandspeedinnovation.DARPAusesthisapproachbyservingasanearlymarketforinformationtechnology(IT)products.Byencouraging“connectedRD&D,”DARPAprovidesnotonlyinsightsintocustomerneedsbutalsoconnectionstointerestedpartieswillingtotrialconcepts.

26

DARPAandtheDepartmentofDefense(DOD)werethefirstadoptersofITadvancesforworkstations(SunMicrosystems,SiliconGraphics)andInternetforerunnersARPANETandMILNET.

27

DARPAprovidedacriticalassisttothelaunchingofSunbyextendingfundstoacademicinstitutions,therebypermittingthemtoacquireworkstations.OrdersfromDARPA-connectedacademicpartnersaccountedfor80percentoftheordersreceivedbySuninitsfirstyearofbusiness

.34

DARPAreliedonitsconnectionsandtiestolargerinnovationsystemstonurtureinternalandexternalmultilayerednetworkstospurinnovationwhileengagingadiverserangeofresearchersandendusers.

28

There’salsotheapproachofofferingprizestospurinnovation,whichwouldseemtosupportinnovationbyentrepreneurs.There’sbeenaboominlargeprizessince1970,withinducementprizesaccountingfor78percentoftotalprizes.

29

Yet,quantitativeevidencefortheeffectof

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prizesisnotstrong.Whereprizesarechosen,theymaybeparticularlyappropriatefordevelopingtechnologytobreakcriticaltechnologicalbarriers,achievehigherperformance,orstimulatethediffusionorcommercializationoftechnologies.

30

Theseareasalignwithamplifieruse,socarefulselectionofgoalsandmetricsinthedesignofprizescouldbeconsideredtoinspirethosepursuingearlymarkets.

Bealertforadjacentmarketsandapplications.Goal-orientedRD&Dshouldrecognizethatwhileinnovationsaretargetedforonearea,theremaybeadjacentmarketsorapplicationswithevenlargerimpactoramoredirectpathwaytoadoption.

Ofteninnovatorshavetunnelvision—focusedonmeetingamarketneedthatjustifiestheirtimeandenergyindevelopingasolution—butareunawareofadjacentorunseenmarkets,asnotedbyPeterDruckerdecadesago.

31

Amplifierscanrevealabroadermarkettoinnovatorsaugmentingthebusinesscaseandprovidinggreaterscale.The