房地产市场报告 -广州写字楼市场报告 Guangzhou office market report - Q4 2025

knightFran

GuangzhouGrade-AOfficeMarketReport

Q42025

ThisreportfocusesontheGrade-AofficemarketinGuangzhou,

includinginformationaboutsupplyanddemand,rents,vacancyratesandtheofficeinvestmentmarket

/research

OverviewandOutlook

Year-enduptick,full-yearpressure

InQ42025,theGuangzhouGrade

Aofficemarketsawmodestshort-

termimprovements,drivenbya

combinationoftighteningnewsupplyandayear-endreleaseofpent-up

leasingdemand.Newcompletions

werelimitedtoaround5,000sqm,

whilenetabsorptionroseto56,433

sqm—thehighestquarterlylevelof

theyear.Asaresult,thevacancyrateedgeddownby0.5percentagepointsQoQto17.0%.Rentscontinuedto

soften,althoughthepaceofdecline

moderated:averagenetefectiverentfellby1.7%QoQtoRMB118.7persqmpermonth.Theseindicatorsdonot

yetsignaladefinitivemarketturningpoint;rather,buttheysuggestthat

adjustmentisshiftingfrombroad-

basedpricecutstomorestructured

deal-making—exchangingbettertermstosecuretransactions.

MarketdynamicsinQ4reinforceademandprofilecenteredon

“relocation,costcontrol,andquality

upgrade.”Bysector,TMTremained

dominant(63.9%),followedby

financialservices(24.8%)and

professionalservices(11.3%).Intermsoftransactions,relocationsaccountedforroughly83%ofdeals,with

nearly40%ofrelocationsinvolving

expansion;Newleasedemand

contributedabout10%.Inotherwords,occupiersremaincautiousoverall,butactivityhasnotstalled.Higher-qualitybuildings,flexibleterms,andlocationsbettersuitedtocostcontrolstillattract‘upgradeplusselectiveexpansion’

demand.Onafull-yearbasis,the

imbalancebetweensupplyand

demandcontinuedtobethedominanttheme.Approximately482,000sqm

ofnewsupplywasdeliveredin2025,whilefull-yearnetabsorptiontotalledonlyabout121,000sqm—keeping

vacancyundersustainedpressure.

Intheinvestmentmarket,activityremainedsubdued,butthepatternwasclear:transactableassetsare

tradingfirst.Q4recordedonlyone

officeen-bloctransaction(around

RMB120million),whilefull-year

officeinvestmentturnoverreachedroughlyRMB3.75billion,aslightYoYimprovementfromalowbase.

Lookingaheadto2026,market

pressurewillcontinuetobesupply-

led.Knownupcomingsupplytotals

around1.4millionsqm,concentratedinFinancialCityandPazhou,implyingongoingcompetitiononbothrentsanddestocking.Twoimplicationsstand

out.First,rentalcompetitionislikelytopersist,butwillincreasinglyfocusontargetedconcessionsandstructuredpackages(rent-freeperiods,fit-out

subsidies,flexibleleaseterms)rather

thanbroadface-rentcuts.Second,

vacancylevelswillbemoresensitive

totheactualdeliverypaceofnew

suppliesandtheconversionofpre-

leasingintomove-ins.Inthenearterm,“terms-for-take-up”willremainthe

corelandlordstrategy.

Fig1:GuangzhouGrade-Aofficemarketreferenceindex[1]

2025Q4

NetAbsorption

56,433

sqm

2025Q4Rent

118.7

RMB/sqm/month

2025Q4

Vacancyrate

17.0%

2025Q4

Newsupply

50,00

sqm

QoQchange:

Outlook(Q12026):

QoQchange:1.7%

Outlook(Q12026):

QoQchange:

Outlook(Q12026):

QoQchange:0.5%

Outlook(Q12026):

Source:KnightFrankResearch[1]Rentreferstoaverageeffectiverent

Fig2:Guangzhouofficedevelopmentpipeline,2025-2028

●Pazhou

●FinancialCity

●Baietan

●GuangzhouSouthStation

●ZhujiangNewTown

‘000sqm

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

20252026202720280

Source:KnightFrankResearch

Note:Projectedsupplyin2025includesprojectsalreadyonthemarket

RentalLevel

Continueddownwardtrend,widerdivergence

InQ4,Guangzhouofficerents

extendedtheirdownwardtrend,falling1.7%QoQtoRMB118.7persqmper

month.Thatsaid,thisrepresentedthesmallestquarterlydropoftheyear,

signalingatransitionfromsteeper

correctionstoamoremoderatephaseofadjustment.Over2025,thepace

ofrentdeclineslowedinphases,yet

volatilityremainedelevatednear

decade-highlevels.Landlordshave

reliedmoreonflexibleleasingterms

todefendoccupancy,whileoccupiershavebecomemoredeliberatein

balancingcostandquality—leavingthemarketoscillatingbetweenattempts

tostabilizeandongoingdownsidepressure.

Submarketperformancediverged.FinancialCitywascomparatively

resilient,whilemostotherareas

weakened.Pazhourecordedthe

steepestdecline(-3.6%QoQ),driven

byproactiveleasingstrategiesat

severalearlier-built,large-scale

projectsaimingtoaccelerateyear-

endtake-up.Insomecases,efectiveconcessionswidenedtoroughly10%,furtherenhancedbyrent-freeperiodsandfit-outsubsidies—materially

loweringefectiverents.ZhujiangNewTown,TianheNorth,andYuexiueachrecordeddeclinesinthe1%–2%range,reflectingincrementaladjustments

followingthepriceresetearlierintheyear.Wherevacancyremainedmanageable,landlordsgenerally

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Fig3:GuangzhouGrade-Aofficerentaltrend

RMB/sqm/month

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source:KnightFrankResearch

prioritizedtermoptimizationand

selectivediscountsoveranother

roundofsharprentcuts.Transactionmixalsotiltedtowardrenewalsand

upgrade-drivenrelocations—typicallyassociatedwithtighterbudgetsand

shorterdecisioncycles.

In2026,Guangzhouisexpectedtoseemorethan1.4millionsqmofnew

supply.Evenifsomeprojectsshift

towardsalesorowner-occupation,

supplypressurewillremainsignificant.Withthemarketstillina“stabilize

first,recoverlater”phase,downward

trendinrentsisunlikelytoreverse

quickly.Competitionwillcontinue,

targetedconcessions—securing

prioritysectorsandkeyoccupiers,

usingrent-free/fit-out/flexiblelease

structurestosecuresigningsand

occupancy.Underabasecase,rents

arelikelytoremainweakin1H2026;

Stabilizationinthe2Hwillhingeonthetimingofnewsupplydeliveries,pre-

leasingconversionincorebuildings,andanymarginalchangesinoccupieroffice-costbudgets.

Table1:MajorGuangzhouGrade-Aofficesub-marketindicators,Q42025

Submarket

RentRMB/sqm/mth

RMB/sqm/day

Rental%

changes(QoQ)

Vacancy

Rate

Vacancyrate

percentagechange

(QoQ)

TianheNorth

116.1

3.8

↓1.4%

7.5%

↑0.3%

ZhujiangNewTown

135.0

4.4

↓1.2%

13.8%

0.0%

Yuexiu

100.8

3.3

↓1.2%

10.0%

↓0.4%

Pazhou

103.5

3.5

↓3.6%

23.6%

↑1.2%

FinancialCity

93.3

3.1

↓0.2%

58.8%

↓1.2%

Source:KnightFrankResearch

SupplyandDemand

Highsupplybase,softerdemand

InQ4,GuangzhourecordedonlyonenewGradeAofficeprojectdelivered—theMarubiGroupheadquarters

building.Asthedevelopmentislargelyforowner-occupation,onlyasmall

portionwasreleasedtotheleasing

market,around5,000sqmofefectivenewsupplyandlimitedincrementalpressure.Withpent-updemand

concentratingtowardyear-end,netabsorptionreboundedto56,433sqm(thehighestquarterlylevelin2025),resultingina0.5ppQoQdeclineinvacancyto17.0%.Forthefullyear,

whiledemandincreasedto121,461sqm,itremainedwellbelow482,076sqmofsupplydelivered.Asaresult,annualnetabsorptionfellinthe

mid-rangeofthepastfiveyears,andtheongoingsupplywaveremainedtheprimarydriverofhighervacancylevels.

Bytenantprofile,TMT,financial

services,andprofessionalservices

ledleasingactivityduringthe

quarter.TMT(63.9%)remainedthe

largestdemanddriver,withnotable

contributionsfromaerospace

remote-sensingbigdataand

softwaredevelopment.Financial

servicesrankedsecond,supported

bymoreactiveexpansionfromasset

managementfirms.Professional

servicesrankedthird,withincrementaldemandconcentratedininternet

marketing-relatedsegments.By

transactiontype,relocation-driven

demanddominated(83.0%),and

nearly40%ofrelocationdealsinvolvedexpansion—suggestingthatoccupiers,whileoptimizinglocationselection

andcosts,thereremainsdemandfortargetedexpansionsandupgrades.

Newlyestablisheddemandsoftenedto

Fig4:GuangzhouGrade-Aofficesupply,take-upandvacancyrate

Grade-Aofficesupply(left)Grade-Aofficenetabsorption(left)Vacancyrate(right)

‘000sqm

700

25%

600

20%

500

15%

400

300

10%

200

5%

100

020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420250%

Source:KnightFrankResearch

Notes:ThesupplyandnetabsorptionofGradeAofficespacein2025isaccumulated

The2025vacancyrateisforQ4

around10%.

In2025,TMTremainedthelargestdemanddriver(over50%),driven

bysoftwaredevelopersandfilm/

mediacompanies.Professional

servicesrankedsecond,withlaw

firms,education/trainingproviders,andconsultingmaintainingstable

demand.Manufacturingranked

third—outpacingfinancialservices—supportedbyrelativelysteadyleasingfrombeautyandmedicaldevice

companies.Bytransactionmix,

relocationsaccountedforabout51.9%,withexpansionrelocationsnear10%;newleasedemandeasedslightlyto

27.2%.Notably,leaserestructuringsapproached10%,highlightingthattermoptimization(rent-free,fit-outsupport,flexibleleasestructures)is

emergingasakeymeasurebeyondrentlevelstofacilitateleaserenewalsand

securetenants.

In2026,themarketwillfaceover

1.4millionsqmofnewsupply.While

demandimprovedin2025,thesupply–demandgaphasnotmeaningfully

narrowed,andvacancyislikelyto

remainonanupwardtrendthrough

2026.InQ12026,severaldelayed

projectsmaydeliverafter6–12monthsofpre-leasing,potentiallygeneratinginitialnetabsorption.However,

withsupplystilloutsizingdemand,

vacancywilllikelyrisefurther,,and

competitionwillhingeon“targeted

concessionsplusbundledleaseterms”todrivedestocking.

Table2:MajorGuangzhouGrade-Aofficeleasingtransactions,Q42025

DistrictBuildingTenantArea(sqm)TransactionType

Huangpu

HongtaiWisdomValley

TyuanSpace

5,455

Relocation&

Expansion

ZhujiangNewTown

BCC

ChinaCITICFinancialAsset

ManagementCo.,Ltd.

3,500

Relocation

FinancialCity

SkylinePlaza

Zhisuan·Info

2,200

Relocation

ZhujiangNewTown

KingoldCentury

TreasureYourCore

1,100

Expansion

Source:KnightFrankResearch

Note:alltransactionsaresubjecttoconfirmation

InvestmentMarket

Gradualreboundfromalowbase,higherselectivity

InQ42025,Guangzhou’soffice

investment(en-bloc)market

recordedonlyonetransaction,with

aconsiderationofapproximately

RMB120million.Intermsofpaceandstructure,buyersremainedfocused

onsmaller,clearly-definedassets,

prioritizingpricingcomparability,titleclarity,andleasestability—signalinganearly-stagerecovery.Forthefull

year,totalinvestmentvolumereachedaroundRMB3.75billion,representingaslightYoYincrease—areboundfromalowbase.Willingnesstotransact

improvedmarginally,butsentiment

stayedcautious,andexecution

remainedsensitivetofinancing

conditionsandcashflowrequirements.

Thequarter’stransactioninvolvedTopscoreCo.,Ltd.sellingunits3501–3505atIGC,locatedatNo.222XingminRoad(TianheDistrict),toNingbo

ShengdeRontaiZhonghePrivateFundManagementCo.,Ltd.andindividualcounterparties.ThetransactedGFA

totaled2,712.8sqm,structuredasan

assettransaction,implyingaunitprice

ofapproximatelyRMB44,500persqmandatotalconsiderationofaboutRMB121million.Thistransactionrepresents“standardizedsmall-scaleasset

disposal/configuration”withlimitedspillovertomarketpricingsignals.

Thatsaid,itisdirectionallyindicativeforyear-endsentiment:inahighly

uncertainenvironment,capitaltendstofavorassetsthatarecontrollableinsize,cleaninlegalstructure,andlowerinclosingrisk.

Lookingbackat2025,investmentactivitywasmoreconcentratedin

non-officeassetssuchasindustrial,retailmalls,andhotels,withofficescomparativelyquiet.Ononehand,leasingfundamentalswerestill

adjusting,leadingbuyerstotakea

moreconservativeviewonfuture

cashflows.Ontheotherhand,someownersfacedfinancingandcashflowpressure,increasingwillingnesstosell—yetbid/askgapsonpricingandtermsremained.InH2,marginal

shiftsininterestratesandfinancingconditionsimprovedfeasibilityfor

certaintrades,andencouragedmoreproactiveportfolioactions,resultinginincrementalofficedealflow.Still,transactionsremainedcase-drivenratherthansignalingasustained

upcycle.

In2026,officeinvestmentin

Guangzhouislikelytoseeagradual

increaseinnumberbutwitheven

greaterassetselectivity.Expansionintransactionvolumewilldependmainlyon(i)whetherfundingcostscontinuetofall,and(ii)whetherleasing

cashflowsbecomemorepredictable.

Withelevatedsupplyandtenants

retainingbargainingpower,themarketisexpectedtopriceandtransactmorereadilyintwocategories:(1)core-

locationassetswithstabletenantsandclearerremainingleaseterms;and

(2)assetswherepricinghasalready

adjustedsufficiently,oferinghigher

certaintyofreturns.Overall,market

activityshouldimproveversus2025—butasagrowingsetofcashflow-drivenindividualcases,ratherthanbroad

rapidrecovery.

GuangzhouGrade-AofficemarketdashboardQ42025

GuangzhouGrade-Aofficeinventory,rentsandvacancyratesofmajorbusinessdistricts

●Yuexiu

FinancialCity

Inventory:526

Rents:93.3

VR:58.8%

TianheNorth

Inventory:1,587

Rents:116.1

VR:7.5%

●Pazhou

ZhujiangNewTown

Inventory:2,314

Rents:103.5

VR:23.6%

Inventory:1,131

Rents:100.8

VR:10.0%

Inventory:4,464

Rents:135.0

VR:13.8%

Grade-Aoffice

TotalInventoryapprox.

10,022

thousandsqm

Source:KnightFrankResearch

Note:unitformarketinventory–1,000sqm;rentsusingaverageeffectiverentatRMB/sqm/month;VRreferstoaveragevacancyrate.

Welikequestions,ifyou’vegotoneaboutourresearch,orwouldlikesomepropertyadvice,wewouldlovetohearfromyou.

Research&ConsultancyGuangzhouOffice

Strategy&Solutions

ReginaYang

Director,HeadofResearch&Consultancy,Shanghai&Beijing

+8613918723123

regina.yang@

HenryChen

Analyst,Research&Consultancy,Shenzhen

+8613642314481

henry.chen@

MartinWong

SeniorDirector,

HeadofResearch&Consultancy,GreaterChina

+85228467184

martin.wong@

KenKan

ManagingDirector,Shenzhen

HeadofOfficeStrategy&Solutions,SouthChina

+8618666825418

ken.kan@

AaronHuang

Director,

HeadofOfficeStrategy&Solutions,Guangzhou

+8616658010718

aaron.huang@

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