mckinsey -协调价值链以实现塑料行业脱碳 Aligning the value chain to decarbonize plastics

Mcsey

&company

Aligningthevaluechainto

decarbonizeplastics

Decarbonizingandbuildingcircularityintoplasticswillrequirealignmentacrosstheentireplasticsvaluechain.

byChristofWitte,GeorgWinkler,andSebastianGöke

withVladislavVasilenko

June2025

Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics2

Executivesummary

Plasticsproductionaccountsforabout3percentof

humanity’sglobalcarbonemissionsfootprint.1Inaddition,

about1.0billionto1.2billionmetrictonsoffossilCO2is

boundupinplasticperyearandmaybereleasedattheendofthatplastic’slifeifnottreatedinacircularwayorburied,

accordingtoMcKinseyanalysis.Plasticsareusedinalmosteveryindustry,inproductsassimpleasplasticbottlesandascomplexasrocketships.Decarbonizingplastics,therefore,

isinthebestinterestofsocietyatlarge.

Today,thestageisalmostsettodecarbonizeplastics.

Technologiesforproducinglower-carbonplasticsexist,butthesystemstodecarbonizeplasticsandmakethemcircularlackcleardemandsignalsandcoordinationacrossthevaluechain,whichareprerequisitesforinvestmentstoprovidethefuelnecessaryforthisinfrastructure-heavyindustry.

Toalignthevaluechainatscale,stakeholderswillneedto

engageincompetitiveyetconstructivecollaboration,aswellasbroad-scaleeducationandcapabilitybuilding,tofind

commerciallyattractivesolutionsforbothproducersand

consumers.Iftheseconversationscanhelpgetsolutions

offthegroundforplastics,circularityandrenewableenergy

couldreduce80to90percentofemissionsfromplasticsby2050.2

Thisarticleispartofaseriesondecarbonizingmaterialsandimprovingcircularityacrossvaluechains.Here,weprovideanoverviewoftheplasticsindustryandthefactorsitmust

contendwith.

Emissionsandcircularitychallengesforplastics

Decarbonizingplasticsandmakingcircularplasticsvaluechainswillbecriticalforourplanet,buttogetthere,theplasticsindustrymustconfrontseveralchallenges:

1.Avarietyofplastictypes.Unlikeothermaterials,plastics

varyinchemicalcompositionandhaveawiderangeof

recyclabilityprofiles.Therearehundredsofplastictypes,eachdifferinginchemicalcomposition,properties,and

applications.Manyoftheseplasticsmayhaveadistinctvaluechain,makingitdifficulttogeneralizeplastics

decarbonizationandcircularity.

2.Dividedinvestmentpriorities.Manyenergyefficiency

leversorcircularityinvestmentsareinthemoneybutarenot(yet)hittingdesiredreturnthresholdsformanyproducers,ascomparedwithaconventionalcapacityinvestmentproject,forexample.Althoughmanyofthetechnologiesrequiredareavailabletoday,theyrequireapushorincentivetobeinstalledamongalltheotherinvestmentprioritiesthesupplysidemayhave.

3.Developingtechnologicalmaturity.Severalotherfull-scaledecarbonizationtechnologies—suchaselectrifiedhigh-temperatureprocessesandselectmonomerrecycling

technologies—remainunprovenonacommercialscale.

Toaddresstheseissues,producersandconsumerswill

needtoraiseawarenessofanddemandforcircularand

decarbonizedplastics.Byfirstgaininganunderstandingofthebroaderplasticsindustry,stakeholderscanworktobuildlow-emissionscircularityfortherelevantplasticsintheir

valuechains.

1HannahRitchie,“Howmuchofglobalgreenhousegasemissionscomefromplastics?,”OurWorldinData,October5,2023.

2McKinseyValueChainTwin.

Emissionsaresplitacrosstheplasticsproductionchain

Globalplasticsproductionwasestimatedatapproximately

400millionmetrictons(Mt)asof2023,3withestimated

annualprocessemissionsofabout1,000to1,200MtCO2

equivalent,accordingtoMcKinseyanalysis.Thisresultsin

atypicalemissionsintensityof2.5to3.0metrictonsofCO2equivalentpermetrictonofplasticsproduced.Inaddition,

thecarboncontainedinplasticsisequivalenttoanother

approximate1.0billionto1.2billionmetrictonsoffossilCO2annually.However,it’simportanttorecognizethatthereis

considerablevarianceinthecarbonfootprintsofdifferent

plastictypes.Someplastics,duetotheirapplicationsand

moreenergy-efficientproduction,exhibitmuchlowercarbonfootprintsthanothers.Processemissionsaregenerated

acrossthevaluechain,withatypicalsplitasfollows:

—Rawmaterials.About20percentofemissionscomefromupstreamproductionofchemicalfeedstocksforplasticsproduction,suchasnaphthaornaturalgas.Alargeshareoftheseemissionsstemfromthemethaneleakage

connectedtotheextractionofcrudeoilandnaturalgas.4

—Monomerproduction.About25to50percentofemissionscomefromthehigh-temperatureprocesses(suchassteamcrackingandsteammethanereforming)thatproducethe

basicmonomersneededtoproducemostplastictypes.

Suchprocessescanentailtemperaturesofmorethan

850°C,whichcanonlybeachievedbyburningfossilfuels.

—Plasticsproduction.About30to55percentofemissionscomefromfinalprocessing(suchaspolymerization)intovariousplastictypes.

3Includingfibers.“Plastics—thefastfacts2024,”PlasticsEurope,2024.

4BehrangShirizadehetal.,“TheimpactofmethaneleakageontheroleofnaturalgasintheEuropeanenergytransition,”NatureCommunications,Volume14,

Number5756;Globalmethanetracker2023,InternationalEnergyAgency,February2023.

Emissionsinplasticscomefromrawmaterials,monomerproduction,andbulkplasticsproduction.

Overviewofplasticsvaluechain,shareofemissionsforplastic(bulk)productionbysource,%

Rawmaterial

High-temperature

processes(eg,steam

cracking,steam

reforming)

Plastic

wastePlastic

production

100%=2.5–3.0tCO₂e/t¹

ofmaterial

Plastic

product

Finalprocessing

(eg,polymerization,

modifying)

30–55

~20

Rawmaterials

(ie,naphtha,

naturalgas)

25–50

~45–70

MonomerPlastic(bulk)

Monomerproduction

Fossil

feedstock

1MetrictonsofCO₂equivalentpermetricton.

Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics3

McKinsey&Company

Thissplitcanvarysignificantlydependingonthe

complexityofthechemicalproductionpathway.For

example,polyethyleneisthelargestplasticproduct

byvolume5andhasahigheremissionsshareinthe

monomerproduction,whereasplasticsthataremore

complex,suchaspolycarbonate,haveahigheremissionsshareintheactualproductionofplastics.6

5MehmetDemirors,“Thehistoryofpolyethylene,”in100+YearsofPlastics:LeoBaekelandandBeyond,ACSSymposiumSeries,Volume1080.

6McKinseyValueChainTwin.

Someplastics,duetotheirapplicationsandmoreenergy-efficientproduction,exhibit

muchlowercarbon

Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics4

footprintsthanothers.

Aplastic’scarbonfootprintdependsonasset-andproduct-specificproductionparameters

Today,thereisasignificantspreadinemissionsintensitybetweendifferentplayersandregions,primarilydrivenbyfourfactors:

1.Plastictype.Themanydifferentplastictypescanhavevastlydifferentemissionsfootprints.

2.Productionpathways.Forasingleplastictype,thereareoftendifferentproductionpathwaysthatcanhavevastlydifferentemissionsprofilesdependingontheirspecificenergyrequirementsandprocessengineering.

3.Energyefficiency.Energy-efficientmeasuresinthevariousproductionsteps,suchasheatrecovery,canaffectaplastic’stotalemissions.

4.Energymix.Theenergysourcesusedinplastics

productionprocessesalsoaffectemissions.Thethree

typicalenergysuppliesaredirectheating(through

burners),steam,andelectricity.Thesecanresultinverydifferentfootprintsdependingonwhichfuelsareusedingeneratingthatenergysupply.

Forthesameplastictype,thesevariationscanlead

emissionstovarybyafactoroftwotofive,inextremecases.

Plasticsemissionsvarybypolymer,region,andprocesstype.

Polyethyleneandpolycarbonateemissionintensitybyprocesstypeandregion,¹selectedillustrativeexamples,tCO₂e/t²material

China

Europe

Polyethylene

High-densitypolyethylene(HDPE):ethylenefrom

naphthacracker,highequipmenteficiency

HDPE:ethylenefromnaphthacracker,lowequipmenteficiency(polymerization)

BPA³-based

polycarbonate:

transesterificationofdiphenylcarbonate,benzenefromcracker

BPA³-basedpolycar-bonate:interfacial

polymerizationpro-cess,benzenefromcracker

Polycarbonate

BPA³-basedpolycar-bonate:interfacial

polymerization

process,benzenefromcracker

4.44.86.59.3

BPA³-basedpolycar-bonate:interfacial

polymerizationpro-cess,benzenefromreformer

(polymerization)

2.2

1.4

1.81.9

HDPE:ethylenefromethanecracker,highequipmenteficiency(polymerization)

HDPE:ethylenefromnaphthacracker,

highequipmenteficiency

(polymerization)

1AppliedemissionsfactorsforaverageenergygridmixinChinavsWesternEurope.2MetrictonsofCO₂equivalentpermetricton.

3BisphenolA.

Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics5

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Recyclingcanreduceemissionsfromfeedstocksandproductionbyskippingproductionsteps

Recyclingpathways(mechanicalandchemical)canaddressthecarbonequivalentcontainedinplasticsbecause

recyclingdoesnotconsumeadditionalfossilfeedstocksforrawmaterials.

Inaddition,recyclingtechnologiescanenableproducers

toskipmanystepsinthelinearplasticsvaluechain,which

canalsoleadtomuchlowerenergyconsumptionandthus

loweremissions.However,thisisbynomeansaguarantee.Therearealsoplasticsrecyclingpathwaysthatdonothavebetterprocessemissionsthantherespectivevirgin-plasticsvaluechain.

Additionally,notallplastictypescanberecycledusingeverymethod,andformanytypes,recyclingtechnologiesare

stillnotoperatingatfullindustrialscale.Ontheotherhand,

someplastictypes,suchaspolyethyleneterephthalate,havenotablyhighrecyclingratesandwell-establishedrecycling

infrastructuresinmanycountries,underscoringtheprogressthat’salreadybeenmadetowardacirculareconomyandtheopportunitiespotentiallyinstoreforotherplastics.

Therearemanyrecyclingoptionsforplasticsthateliminateprocessemissions.

Overviewofplasticsrecyclingpathwaysandselectedapplicationexamples

FossilChemicalrecyclingMechanicalrecycling

feedstock

bRawmaterialbMonomerbPlastic(bulk)

Mechanicalrecycling(eg,PET¹bottlestoPET¹chips)

Depolymerization (eg,polystyrenewastetostyreneoil)

Pyrolysis

(eg,cartirestopyrolysisoil)

Plasticproduct

Plastic

X

waste

1Polyethyleneterephthalate.

Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics6

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Afewkeyabatementleversarecommontoallplasticscircularitychains

Almosteveryplastictype—fromcommodityplasticssuchaspolyethylenetoengineeringplasticssuchaspolycarbonate—requiresspecificproductionsystemsandtechnologies.

However,somefactorsforachievingbothdecarbonizationandcircularityholdtrueacrossallplasticsvaluechains.

First,boththelinearvirgin-polymervaluechainandthecircular-recyclingvaluechaincanbedecarbonizedwithleversavailabletodayandatrelativelyincrementalcost.Availableabatementleversincludethefollowing:

—energyefficiencyandwaste-heatrecovery

—changeoffuels(torenewablesorhydrogen,forexample)

—useofbiobasedfeedstockstoeliminatecarbonemissionsfromproductionyieldlosses7

Second,theshorterthecircularloop,thebetterthecarbonfootprintofthesystem.Investmentsintechnologiesthat

enableshorterloopswillalwaysbeatothersolutions—

includingbiomasssolutions,whoselongloopsgothroughtheatmosphere—intermsofdecarbonizationpotential.

Asaruleofthumb,themorethatprocessingstepsare

skippedinthevirginchain,thebetterthefootprintof

therecyclingroute.Conversely,thelongertherecyclingpathway,themoredecarbonizationisneededalongthe

productionchaintoreduceemissions,comparedwiththevirginroute.

7Inpetrochemicalconversionprocesses,yieldlossesoftenleadtodirectCO2

equivalentemissionsinthewastetreatmentprocessasthefossilcarbonfeedstockconvertstoCO2.Theselossescanbecompensatedforwhenusingbiomass

feedstocks.

Decarbonizingplastics—bothvirginandrecycledmaterial—ispossibletoday,butshortercircularloopsaremoreachievable.

Keyabatementlevers

1Energy

e代ciencymeasures,includingwasteheat

recovery

2Changeoffuels(eg,

electrifyingprocesses,switchingtobiogasfor

heating)

3Useof

biobased

feedstockstocompensate

forcarbon

emissionsfromyieldlosses

12

Forexample,

injectionmold-

ingrunon

renewable

electricityPlastic

product

Mechanical

recyclingrunonrenewable

electricityPlasticwaste

12

Forexample,

steamcrackerelectrification,switchto

biogas,orboth

Pyrolysisrunonrenewable

electricityandbiogas

Fossilfeedstockfromsources

withlow

methane

leakage,energyeficiency

measuresfor

extraction,andbiobased

feedstockfor

yieldlosses(eg,bionaphtha)

Monomer

12

Forexample,polymerizationrunon

renewableelectricity

Fossil

feedstock

Raw

material123

Abatementleverapplicationacrossdi仟erentvaluechainsteps,selectedexamples

Chemicalrecyclingrunonrenewableelectricityand

biogas

VirginpathwayRecyclingpathway

Plastic(bulk)

1

2

1

2

1

2

Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics7

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Decarbonizationatscalewillthusrequiremassive

investmentintoinnovationandassets.Theindustrystill

facesfundamentaltechnologicalbottlenecksthat,if

overcome,woulddecarbonizelargesharesofemissions

inonego.Forexample,theelectrificationofthehigh-energyprocesses(andrunningthemwithrenewableelectricity)

isstillatechnologicalchallenge,andreplacingtheexistingassetswilltakesignificanttimeafterthetechnology

ismature.

Investmentsin

technologiesthat

enableshorterloops

willalwaysbeatothersolutionsinterms

Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics8

ofdecarbonizationpotential.

Unlockinguntappedsourcesofsecondary

plasticswillbecriticalforbuildingcircularity

Inadditiontodecarbonizingprocesses,plasticscompaniescanworktoincreasetheiraccesstosecondaryplasticstorampupcircularvaluechains.

Toillustratethepotentialofthisopportunity,wecanlookat

aselectexampleofanengineeringpolymer.Forthispolymer,70percentoftoday’spostconsumerscrapisnotcollected,

and70percentofcollectedscrapisnotrecoveredand

notrecycled.Theseunrecoveredandunrecycledvolumescomefromvariousindustries,includingconsumergoods,construction,automotive,packaging,andmedical.

Toincreasecollectionandrecoveryratesforthispolymerineachoftheseindustries,stakeholderswillneedtocontend

withthespecificdynamicsthatareatplay.Forexample,

recoveryratesarelowinconstruction,andthegoodsthat

arerecoveredareoftencontaminated(andthusunrecyclablebyconventionalmechanicalrecycling).Therefore,

stakeholderscanfocustheireffortsonsuchareastohave

thegreatesteffectinunlockingadditionalscrapstreamsforadvancedrecyclingtechnologies.8

Fromaglobalperspective,twoofthebiggestopportunitiestoaccessmorepostconsumerscrapforthisexamplepolymerareconsumergoodsandautomotiveproductsinEurope

andChina.Theseopportunitiesstandoutduetothelarge

overallvolumesofwasteintheseregions,combinedwiththepotentialtoaugmentthesubscalecircularvaluechainsthatalreadyexistinEuropeandChinaforthispolymer.

Similaranalysescanbedonetosizetheopportunityfor

otherpolymers,withsolutionstailoredtothespecificfactorsaffectingthewasteandvaluechainsofthosepolymers.

8ChrisMusso,ZhouPeng,AndrewRyba,andJeremyWallach,“Beyondthebottle:Solutionsforrecyclingchallengingplastics,”McKinsey,November14,2022.

Asjustoneexample,asingleengineeringpolymerisexpectedtoaccountfor4.3millionmetrictonsofunrecycledpostconsumerscrapin2035.

Uncollectedandunrecoveredpostconsumerscrapforanillustrativeengineeringpolymer,2035,metrickilotons(estimate)

400

200

100

50

10

Collectedbutnotrecovered

Uncollected

Bubblesize

B

A

ConsumergoodsConstructionAutomotivePackagingMedicalOther

Europe

MainlandChina

CIS¹and

Balticstates

Korea,

Taiwan,

andJapan

MiddleEast

North

America

South

America

SoutheastAsia

Collection

Lowcollection

Lowcollection,

Collectedbut

Established

Contaminated

Opticalmedia

and

ratesandfocus

materialsoften

disassemblyof

collectionand

waste

(eg,CDs,DVDs)

recovery

onmetalrecovery

contaminated

plasticpartsnot

recycling

incineratedby

collected,but

dynamics

economical

specialized

companies

decreasing

volumesin

circulation

SelectedopportunitiesIncreasecollectionandrecoveryofpostconsumerscrap²

AForrecoveryfromconsumergoodsinEuropeandChinaBForrecoveryfromautomotiveinEuropeandChina

Note:Categorieswithnocircleindicatevaluesof0and<1.

1CommonwealthofIndependentStates.

2Increasedrecoverypartiallyenabledbyfurtherdevelopmentofadvancedrecyclingtechnologies.

Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics9

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Aligningthevaluechaintodecarbonizeplastics10

Conclusion

Tobuildthesystemstodecarbonizeandincrease

circularityinplastics,stakeholderscanconsideraligningtofindcommerciallyattractiveandcompetitivesolutionsmovingforward.Fourcriticalstrategiescanaccelerate

decarbonizationandenhancecircularityinplastics:

—Boostenergyefficiency.Manyenergy-