机构研究报告-German election 2025-外文版培训课件

POLITICS

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SOCIETYGermanelection2025CHAPTER

01OverviewProjectednumberofseatswonintheGermanfederalelection2025,bypartyProjectedseatswonintheGermanelection2025Projectedseatswon100050150200250CDU/CSU207AfDSPD14210995Bündis90/DieGrünenBSWDieLinkeOthers393713Description:Basedoncurrentpolls,theCDUisexpectedtowin201seatsoutof630inthenextGermanelection,duetobeheldonFebruary23,2025.AlthoughthiswouldmaketheCDUthebiggestparty,theywouldstillhavetoofewseatstoformagovernment,andwouldthereforehavetoenterintoacoalitionwithoneormoreoftheotherparties.WhiletheAfDarepredictedtowin142seats,theCDUhasalreadyruledoutworkingwiththem,andwouldhavetolooktotheSPDandGreen[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January17toFebruary5,2025;9,322respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):YouGovProjectedshareofvoteswonintheGermanfederalelection2025,bypartyProjectedshareofvoteswonintheGermanelection2025Projectedshareofvote15%0%5%10%20%25%30%29%35%CDU/CSUAfD20%SPDBündis90/DieGrünenBSW15%13%5%FDP4%2.9%DieLinke2%FreieWählerOthers6%4Description:AheadoftheGermanfederalelection,duetobeheldonFebruary23,2025,theCDUPartyareexpectedtowinthehighestshareofthevoteataround29percent.TheAfDPartyarecurrentlyforecasttoreceive20percentofthevote,aheadoftheSPDon15percentandtheGreenPartyon13percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January17toFebruary5,2025;9,322respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):YouGovProjectedshareofvoteswonintheGermanfederalelection2025,byfederalstateProjectedshareofvoteswonintheGermanelection,byfederalstate2025CDU/CSUAfDSPDBündis90/DieGrünenBSWFDPDieLinkeOthers100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%5Description:InfiveoutofGermany'ssixteenfederalstatestheAfDPartyisexpectedtowinthehighestshareofthevote,withtheirsupportstrongestintheeastofGermany,andthestateofThuringiainparticular.TheCDUareleadingthepollsintenfederalstateshowever,andarecurrentlyoncoursetowintheelectionReadmoreNote(s):Germany;December3,2024toJanuary16,2025Source(s):YouGovVotingintentionsfortheGermanparliamentfromOctober1,2021toFebruary6,2025VotingintentioninGermany2021-2025ChristianDemocrats(CDU/CSU)Liberals(FDP)SocialDemocrats(SPD)LeftParty(DieLinke)Greens(DieGrünen)AlternativeforGermany(AfD)SahraWagenknechtParty(BSW)35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%6Description:AsofFebruary2025,theꢀChristianDemocrats(CDU/CSU)arethemostpopularpoliticalpartyinGermany,with30percentofprospectivevotersindicatingthattheywouldvoteforthepartyifthenextelectiontotheGermanparliamentwereheldthatweek.TheCDU/CSUhasseenaremarkableturn-aroundinitsfortunessincethepreviousGermanfederalelection,whenthepartyrecordeditsworsteverresultinanation-widevote,securingonly24.1percentofthevote.Thepartyhadstruggled[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;October1,2021toFebruary6,2025;Approx1,250perwave;18yearsandolder;GermanvotersSource(s):ForschungsgruppeWahlenCHAPTER

02Polling"WhatarethemostimportantproblemsfacingGermany?"(October2021toFebruary2025)MostimportantissuesfacingGermany2021-2025EnergysupplyandclimateHealthcareWagesandpricesUkraineWar/RussiaImmigrationandintegrationAfD/TheRightEconomicsituationPensions70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%Oct

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258Description:ImmigrationandintegrationwasseenasthemostimportantissuefacingGermanyasofFebruary7,2025,selectedby41percentofpeopleasaproblemthatmonth.Theeconomywasseenby32percentofpeopleinGermanyasamajorissue,andwasthesecondmost-commonresponseinthemostrecentsurvey.Asofthismonth,theCDUwasleadingꢀopinionpollsaheadofthenextGermanElection,scheduledforFebruary23,2025.

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;October1,2021toFebruary7,2025;1,250perwave;18yearsandolder;GermanvotersSource(s):ForschungsgruppeWahlenPreferredChancellorofGermanyamongvotersfromDecember20,2024toFebruary7,2025ChancellorpreferenceinGermany2024-2025OlafScholz(SPD)FriedrichMerz(CDU)RobertHabeck(Grüne)AliceWeidel(AfD)30%35%30%25%20%15%10%32%24%31%29%25%27%25%16%24%20%18%13%16%15%15%14%13%Dec20,24Jan10,25Jan24,25Jan30,25Feb7,259Description:LessthanamonthbeforethenextGermanelectionscheduledforFebruary23,2025,thepreferredChancellorofGermanyfor32percentofvoterswastheleaderoftheCDU,FriedrichMerz.AroundaquarterofvoterspreferredtheGreenPartyleader,RobertHabeck,totheothercandidatesforChancellor,withthecurrentChancellorandSPDleaderOlafScholzon18percent,andAfDleaderAliceWeidelon13percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;December20,2024toFebruary7,2025;1,250perwave;18yearsandolder;GermanvotersSource(s):ForschungsgruppeWahlenIngeneral,howisOlafScholzdoinginhispositionasChancellor?OlafScholzasChancellorofGermany:publicopinion2024WellBadly80%67%28%70%

65%60%65%24%65%30%65%32%64%29%64%32%63%31%62%33%58%37%57%36%56%39%55%38%54%38%52%42%51%44%51%43%51%44%50%45%50%40%30%17%20%10%10Description:OlafScholzbecamethechancellorofGermanyonDecember8th2021,andbyJanuary14th2022,hehadanapprovalratingof65percent.ThisratingpeakedinMarch2022at73percent.However,asofJanuary2025,only31percentofpeopleinGermanythoughthewasdoingwellinhisposition.Infact,sinceAugust2023,morepeoplehaveconsistentlyperceivedtheChancellorasdoingabadjobthanagoodone.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January14,2022toJanuary24,2025;around1,000respondents¹;18yearsandolder;EligiblevotersSource(s):ForschungsgruppeWahlenOpinionsonimportantGermanpoliticiansinOctober2024RatingofimportantGermanpoliticiansinOctober2024Pointsonascaleof-5to+5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.000.51.011.51.52.0BorisPistoriusHendrikWüstMarkusSöderFriedrichMerzRobertHabeckAnnalenaBaerbockOlafScholz-0.2-0.7-0.7-0.8ChristianLindnerSahraWagenknechtAliceWeidel-1.1-1.2-2.411Description:AsofOctober2024,BorisPistorius,theGermanFederalMinisterofDefence(appointedonJanuary19,2023)hadthehighestapprovalratingoutofthemostimportantpoliticiansinGermanywitharatingof1.5onascaleof-5to+5.Intenthplacewithascoreof-2.4wasAfDpartymemberAliceWeidel.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;October15thto17th,2024;1,228respondents;18yearsandolder;EligiblevotersSource(s):ZDFPolitbarometerSurveyontheevaluationofpoliticalpartiesinGermanyinJanuary2025EvaluationofpoliticalpartiesinGermanyinJanuary20251.00.50.80.30.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0-0.4-1.2FDP-1.5-1.9-2.6AfDCDU/CSUSPDGrüneLinkeBSW12/statistics/1392680/political-parties-evaluation-germanyInJanuary2025,peopleinGermanyratedtheAfD,afarrightpoliticalparty,at-2.6whenaskedtorateGermanpoliticalpartiesonascaleof-5to+5.Thiswasthelowestratingthatanypartyreceived.TheCDU/CSUreceivedthehighestratingat+0.8.

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;January21-23,2025;1,345respondents;18yearsandolder;EligiblevotersSource(s):ForschungsgruppeWahlenIfyoucouldvotefororagainstGermany’smembershipinNATO,howwouldyouvote?(2021to2024)SupportforNATOmembershipinGermany2021-2024VotetostayamemberofNATODon'tknowVotetoleaveNATO100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%9%12%11%13%8%15%10%14%79%77%77%75%202120222023202413Description:In2024,77percentofGermanswouldvotetoremainamemberoftheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)inapotentialvoteonmembership,comparedwithninepercentwhowouldleave.

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2021to2024;18yearsandolder;*Surveycountisfor2024ReadmoreSource(s):NATOCHAPTER

03GermaneconomyGermany:Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)from2010to2022(inbillioneuros)GDPofGermany20224,5004,0003,5003,867.053,601.753,473.263,405.433,365.453,267.163,134.743,026.182,927.433,0002,564.42,5002,811.352,745.312,693.562,0001,5001,0005000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202215Description:In2022,Germany'sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)amountedto3,867.05billioneuros.GermanyisthusamongtheleadingfivecountriesintheworldGDPranking.ReadmoreNote(s):Source(s):StatistischesBundesamtInflationrateinGermanyfrom1992to2024(changeofCPIcomparedtothepreviousyear)InflationrateinGermany1992-20248%7%6%6.9%5.1%5%4%3%2%1%0%2.6%2.6%2.2%2%1.8%1.7%1.6%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.1%1%1%0.5%0.5%'92

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'24¹16Description:TheGermaninflationratehasreturnedtonormallevelsofaround2.2percent,basedonpreliminaryfiguresfor2024.Comparedtoskyrocketingratesin2022and2023,thiscanbeseenasanimprovementofthenationaleconomicsituation.VariousfactorsinfluencedtherecentdevelopmentofinflationinGermany.Thesearethesamethatpushedinflationlevelsaroundtherestoftheworld,particularlysincethebeginningoftheRussia-Ukrainewarin2022.Themostrecentrecordedannual[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;1992to2024Source(s):StatistischesBundesamtGermany:Unemploymentratefrom2004to2023UnemploymentrateinGermany202312.0%11.17%10.73%11.0%10.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%10.25%8.66%7.74%7.53%6.97%5.82%5.38%5.23%4.98%4.62%4.12%3.86%3.75%3.64%3.38%3.14%3.13%3.04%2004

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202317Description:TheunemploymentrateinGermanydeclinedto3.04percentin2023.Theunemploymentratetherebyreacheditslowestvalueinrecentyears.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2004to2023Source(s):WorldBankAverageannualwagesinGermanyfrom1991to2023(ineuros)AverageannualwagesinGermany1991-202351,00049,79449,51348,29948,30149,00047,00045,00043,00041,00039,00037,00035,00047,07545,25844,24642,93342,99442,78442,79442,39341,84540,79640,50439,57637,04418Description:Asof2023,theaverageannualwageofGermanywas48,301eurosperyear,agrowthofalmost6,000Euroswhencomparedwith2000.From2000until2007,wagesrosebylessthanathousandeuros,withwagegrowthacceleratingmainlyintheperiodafter2010.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;1991to2023Source(s):OECDGermany:Nationaldebtinrelationtogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)from2019to2029NationaldebtofGermanyinrelationtogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)202980%67.86%67.88%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%64.79%62.66%62.68%62.1%60.95%59.94%58.56%58.95%57.82%201920202021202220232024*2025*2026*2027*2028*2029*19Description:Theratioofnationaldebttogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inGermanywasforecasttocontinuouslydecreasebetween2024and2029byintotal4.9percentagepoints.Afterthefifthconsecutivedecreasingyear,theratioisestimatedtoreach57.82percentandthereforeanewminimumin2029.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2019to2029;*Estimate.Figureshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFCHAPTER

04GermansocietyDevelopmentofpopulationnumbersinGermanyfrom1990to2023(inmillions)PopulationnumbersinGermany1990-202385.084.083.084.3683.1683.0282.5482.5282.582.3182.2682.0182.048281.7582.081.5481.280.9781.080.079.080.5279.7521Description:ThisstatisticshowsthedevelopmentofpopulationnumbersinGermanyfrom1990to2023.In2023,thepopulationinGermany,asofDecember31ofthatyear,amountedto84.67millionpeople.Anincreasecomparedtothepreviousyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;1990to2023Source(s):StatistischesBundesamtCruderateofbirthinGermanyfrom2008to2022*(per1,000population)CrudebirthrateinGermany2008-2022129.69.61089.59.59.49.398.88.88.58.48.38.38.38.1642020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202222Description:ThecrudebirthrateinGermanydeclinedto8.8livebirthsper1,000inhabitantsin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2008to2022Source(s):WorldBankNumberofin-andoutwardmigrationmovementstoandfromGermanyfrom1993to2023(in1,000)ImmigrationandemigrationtoandfromGermany1993-2023ArrivalsDepartures3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500023Description:Thisstatisticshowsthenumberofin-andoutwardmigrationmovementstoandfromGermanybetween1993and2023.In2023,thenumberofmovementsfromGermanyamountedtoroughly1.27million.Ontheotherside,around1.9millionpeopleimmigratedtoGermany.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;1993to2023;*Theresultsfor2016arenotcompletelycomparabletofiguresfrompreviousyearsduetomethodologychangesandtechnicaldevelopments.Theprecisionoftheresultsislimitedduetodiscrepanciesin[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):StatistischesBundesamtNumberofBachelor'sandMaster'sdegreesinuniversitiesinGermanyfrom2000to2023NumberofBachelor'sandMaster'sdegreesinuniversitiesinGermany2000-2023BachelorMaster300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,00002000

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202324Description:243,633Bachelor'sdegreeswereawardedatGermanuniversities.Thiswasadecreasecomparedtotheyearbefore.ThistimelineshowsthenumberofBachelor'sandMaster'sdegreescompletedatuniversitiesinGermanyfrom2000to2023.

ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2000to2023Source(s):StatistischesBundesamtCriminaloffensesrecordedbypoliceinGermanyfrom2013to2023(per100,000inhabitants)Crimesrecordedbypoliceper100,000inhabitantsGermany2013-20238,0007,5007,0006,5006,0005,5002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202325Description:Since2016,thenumberofcrimesper100,000inhabitantshasbeenonadownwardtrendandwasatitslowestin2021,althoughthiswaslikelyduetothelockdownscausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Sincethen,crimerateshaverisenagain.In2023,thepolicerecordedroughly7,000criminaloffensesper100,000inhabitants.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;2013to2023;IncludingattemptedcrimesSource(s):BundeskriminalamtCHAPTER

05PreviousElectionsProvisionalnumberofseatswonintheGermanfederalelection2021,bypartySeatswonintheGermanelection2021Estimatednumberofseatswon100050150200196250SPD206CDU/CSUDieGrünenFDP11892AfD83DieLinkeSSW39127Description:TheSPDwonthehighestnumberofseatsintheGermanelectionsof2021,withapproximately206oftheBundestag's735seatsgoingtotheparty.Inordertoformagovernment,theSPDwillhavetoformacoalitionwithotherpartiessuchasDieGrünenorthepro-businessFDPparty,althoughtherearevariouscoalitionpossibilities,someofwhichevenexcludetheSPD.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;September26,2021Source(s):BundeswahlleiterPercentageofvoteswonintheGermanfederalelection2021,bypartyPercentageofvoteswonintheGermanelection2021Percentageofvotes0%5%10%15%20%25%30%SPDCDU/CSUDieGrünenFDP25.7%18.9%14.8%11.5%AfD10.3%DieLinkeOtherParties4.9%8.7%28Description:TheSPDwonthelargestshareofvotesintheGermanelectionof2021,whichtookplaceonSeptember26,2021,withapproximately25.7percentofGermanvotersvotingforthecenter-leftparty.AngelaMerkeldidnotruninthiselectionafterbeingintheroleofGermanChancellorfor16years,withherCDUpartyfallingintosecondplace,on18.9percentofvotes.ReadmoreNote(s):Germany;September26,2021Source(s):BundeswahlleiterShareofvotesfortheChristianDemocraticUnion(CDU)andSocialDemocraticPartyofGermany(SPD)inGermanFederalElectionsfrom1953to2021ShareofvotesforCDUandSPDinGermanelections1953-2021CDUSPD55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%1953195719611965196919721976198019831987199020022005200920132017202129Description:BoththeSPD(SocialDemocraticPartyofGermany)andtheCDU(ChristianDemocraticUnionofGermany)receivedtheirlowestshareofthevoteforover60yearsintheGermanFederalElectionsof2017,atjust20.5percentand26.8percentrespectively.TheCDUvotesharefellfurtherin2021,to18.9percent,withtheSPDvoteshareincr