【摩根大通】香港-内地房地产

J.PMorgan

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

July2026

HongKong/MainlandChinaProperty

Allthechartsyouneed

KarlChanAC

(852)2800-8513

karl.chan@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

VenusChoi

(852)2800-8599

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheir

investmentdecision.

MainlandChinaProperty

2JEMorgal

IcebergIndex-Real-timesecondarysalesvolume(26-city)

26-cityreal-timesecondarysalesvolumeY/Y

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

40%

50%

30%25%

16%17%

4%

-6%

-15%-25%

-37%

13%12%

11%13%

10%

16%

7%

-50%

Source:IcebergIndex

Note:Thisdatadoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheofficialsalestrend

3J.EMorgan

IcebergIndex-Real-timesecondarysalesvolume(8-city)

Iceberg8-cityrealtimesecondaryweeklysales

Weekending

No.ofunits

YIY

4weekrollingYIY

BJ

SH

GZ

SZ

Tier1*8-city

BJSHGZSZTier1*8-city

BJ

SH

GZ

SZ

Tier

1*8-city

13-Jun-26

20-Jun-26

27-Jun-264Jul-26

4,095

3,398

3,405

3,422

5,572

5,114

5,627

5,190

2,392

1,993

2,012

2,146

1,154

1,045

1,096

1,248

7,64120,917

6,43618,950

6,51318,794

6,81619,285

17%

5%

-2%

16%

12%

8%

20%

19%

5%

2%

0%

-2%

5%

-2%

5%

24%

11%

3%

0%

11%

12%

5%

7%

14%

16%

17%

12%

9%

14%

13%

17%

14%

20%

17%

11%

1%

22%

14%

12%

8%

18%

16%

12%

6%

16%

15%

13%

9%

11-Jul-26

3,149

·

1,937

928

6,01417,974

1%

-4%

-9%

-2%

1%

5%

-

-1%

4%

3%

7%

Source:IcebergIndex4JEMorgan

IcebergIndex-Real-timesecondarysalesvolume(8-city)

Iceberg8-cityrealtime

No.ofunitssold

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

5-May-25

1~Jun-25

28-Jun-25

0

secondarydailysales

18-May-26

No.ofunitssold—1-weekrollingYY—4-weekrollingYY

25Jul-25

21-Aug-25

17-Sep-25

14-Oct-25

10-Nov-25

7-Dec-25

3-Jan-26

30Jan-26

26-Feb-26

25-Mar-26

21-Apr-26

YIYchange

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

14Jun-26

11Jul-26

-50%

JEMorgan

Source:IcebergIndex

IcebergIndex-Real-timesecondarysalesvolume

timesecondarysalesvolumeYIYvs.12-cityofficialsalesregistrationsY/Y

YIY

200%150%100% 50% 0% -50%-100%

Iceberg26-citysecondaryreal-timesalesY/Y

一Wind12-cityseondarysalesregistrationsYY

J.EMorgal

Source:IcebergIndex,Wind

IcebergIndex-secondarylistings

Icebergtier-1citiessecondarylistingvolume

No.ofsecondarylistings('000units)-Tier1cities

JanFebMarMayJunJulAugOctNovDec——2026……2025

480

470

460

450

440

430

420

410

400

Source:IcebergIndex7J.EMorgan

JEMorgaun

Tier-1cities-homeprices

-homepriceM/Mgrowth(NBS&Centaline)

Shenzhen

Primary(NBS)

May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26

Beijing-0.4%-0.3%0.0%-0.4%0.2%-0.1%-0.5%-0.4%-0.3%0.2%0.0%-0.2%-0.2%

Shanghai

0.7%

0.4%

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.2%

Guangzhou

-0.8%

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.6%

-0.8%

-0.5%

-0.6%

-0.6%

0.0%

0.3%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.4%-0.6%-0.6%-0.4%-1.0%-0.7%-0.9%-0.5%-0.4%-0.3%0.2%0.1%0.4%

Tier-1Primary(NBS)

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.3%0.0%

0.2%0.1%

0.2%

Beijing

-0.8%-1.0%-1.1%-1.2%-0.9%-1.1%-1.3%-1.3%-0.2%0.3%0.6%0.4%0.1%

Secondary(NBS)

Shanghai

-0.7%

-0.7%

-0.9%

-1.0%

-1.0%

-0.9%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

0.2%

0.4%

0.7%

0.6%

Guangzhou

-0.8%

-0.7%

-1.0%

-0.9%

-0.8%

-0.9%

-1.2%

-1.0%

-0.7%

-0.5%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

Shenzhen-0.5%-0.5%-0.9%-0.8%-1.0%-0.9%-1.0%-0.6%-0.6%-0.4%0.4%0.3%0.6%

Tier-1Secondary(NBS)

-0.7%

-0.7%

-1.0%

-1.0%

-0.9%

-0.9%

-1.1%

-0.9%

-0.5%-0.1%

0.4%0.4%

0.3%

Shanghai

Secondary(Centaline)

Beijing-0.9%-1.6%-1.5%-1.8%-2.1%-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%-0.5%1.2%1.5%0.2%0.1%

-1.4%-1.4%-1.7%-1.7%-1.5%-2.2%-2.0%-2.8%-0.5%0.9%1.0%1.6%0.9%

Guangzhou

Shenzhen

-1.0%

-1.4%

-1.2%

-1.8%

-1.4%

-2.0%

-1.9%

-1.3%

-0.8%-1.5%

0.8%-0.3%

-0.2%

-1.1%

-0.5%

-1.1%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-0.5%

-1.0%

-1.6%

-1.3%0.9%

0.1%1.0%

0.1%

Tier-1Secondary(Centaline)-1.1%-1.2%-1.4%-1.6%-1.6%-1.6%-1.7%-1.9%-0.8%0.4%0.9%0.6%0.3%

Source:NBS,Centaline

Tier-1cities-homeprices

Tier-1cities-homepriceM/Mgrowth(NBS&Centaline)

HPReasinginBeijing

HPReasingintier-1cities

-1.0%

-2.0%FirstHPReasing;

-3.0%

vowtomanageRErisksHPReasinginShanghai

Tier-1

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Lowering

downpaymentratio

cities-secondaryM/Mchange

Callfor

"haltingthedecline"

Callfordestocking

16-pointNotice

NBS—Centaline

Source:NBS,Centaline

JEMorgaun

High-frequencysalesdata-salesregistrations

20-citydailyprimarysales

30-dayrollingYY%change

——7-dayrollingYY—

……30-dayrollingvs.18-21average

No.ofunits■No.ofunitssold

……7-dayrolingvs.18-21average

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

-70%

-80%

-90%

3-Dec-25

13-Dec-25

21-Feb-26

3-Mar-26

23-Mar-26

2-Apr-26

12-Apr-26

22-May-26

1-Jun-26

-100%

23-Dec-25

2-Jan-26

12-Jan-26

22-Jan-26

1-Feb-26

11-Feb-26

13-Mar-26

22-Apr-26

2-May-26

12-May-26

11-Jun-26

21-Jun-26

9Z-Inr-

9Z-Inr-

Source:Wind10JEMorgaun

Developers'contractedsales(CREIS)

Top100developers'contractedsalesY/Y&vs4-yearavg

18%

10%

0%

20%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

-70%

-80%

-12%

-21%25%

62%

68%66%

-6%-5%-4%-4%

-19%21%-18%

-33%-40%

-40%

%80%

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Ju-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

NoV-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

May-26

Jun-26

Y/Yvs.2018-21avg

Source:CREIS11JEMorgaun

——50-city——BeiingShanghai-ShenzhenGuangzhou

naerMEJ

May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25

Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26May-26

吕8宫

品

Rent

50-cityrentalindex

Inventory

Tier-1cities-primaryinventoryvolumeandinventorymonths

Available-for-saleGFA(mnsqm)Inventorymonth

26

35

2520偈

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Shanghaiprimaryinventoryvolume—Shanghaiinventorymonth

Tier-1citiesprimaryinventoryvolume——Tier-1citiesinventorymonth

Note:Forthischart,tier-1citiesonlyincludeBeijing,Shanghai&Guangzhou

J.EMorgan

Source:CREIS13

Inventory

Tier-cities-secondarylistingsandinventorymonths

No.ofunitslistedInventorymonth

1,000,000

900,000

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

Sep-22

Jan-23

May-23

Sep-23

Tier-1secondarylisting

一Tier-1inventorymonth

30

25

20

15

10

May-24

May-25

May-26

Jan-24

Sep-24

Jan-25

Sep-25

Jan-26

Shanghaisecondarylisting—Shanghaiinventorymonth

JEMorgun

Source:CREIS

14

Homepricesdrivers

Tier-1citiessecondaryhomeprices12mrollingM/M(Centaline)vs.Tier-1citiesprimaryinventorymonths

M/M

12m

Tier-1

3%

home

prices

rolling

secondary

Inventorymonths(inverted)5

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

——Tier-112mrollingM/M(Centalinesecondary)——Inventorymonth(primary)-tier1cities

Source:Centaline,CREIS15JEMorgaun

StabilizationinShanghaisecondaryhomeprices

ShanghaiIcebergIndex(secondarylistingprice)

Shanghailistingpriceindex

75,000

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000

45,000

40,000

一88

ShanghaiIcebergIndex(secondarylistingprice)changebytotalpricerange

Pricerange(Rmbmnlunit)

Change%

WW

1-month

3-month

YTDLast3Y

0-2mn

0.3%

1.0%

2.8%

4.0%

-38.4%

2-3mn

0.0%

0.6%

1.8%

2.8%

-32.8%

3-5mn

0.1%

0.3%

0.5%

1.0%

-29.9%

5-7mn

0.0%

0.4%

0.2%

0.2%

-27.7%

7-10mn

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

-1.0%

-26.0%

10-15mn

0.2%

-0.3%

-0.7%

-0.1%

-27.4%

15-30mn>30mn

-0.1%

-0.1%

0.1%

1.4%

0.0%

0.1%

-0.6%

5.2%

-28.2%

-38.3%

Sourceforallexhibits:IcebergIndex

16JEMorgaun

Tier-1citysecondarylistingpricebytotalpricerange

IcebergIndex(secondarylistingprice)changebytotalpricerange

Pricerange(Rmbmnlunit)

Change%

WN

1-month

3-month

YTD

0-2mn

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.5%

-0.5%

2-3mn

0.0%

0.1%

-0.7%

-0.8%

3-5mn

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.8%

-0.7%

5-7mn

0.1%

0.1%

-0.3%

-0.5%

7-10mn10-15mn

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.5%

-0.7%

-0.1%

-0.6%

15-30mn

0.0%

0.7%

0.6%

0.2%

>30mn

0.2%

0.3%

-1.2%

2.1%

BeijingIcebergIndex(secondarylistingprice)changebytotalpricerange

Pricerange(Rmbmnlunit)

Change%

WN

1-month

3-monthYTD

0-2mn

-0.3%

-0.8%

-1.5%

-1.6%

2-3mn

3-5mn

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.6%

-0.7%

-0.1%

-1.5%

-1.3%

5-7mn

7-10mn10-15mn

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.5%

-0.9%

-0.3%

-1.5%

-2.0%

-1.3%

-2.1%

-2.3%

-1.2%

15-30mn

-0.5%

-1.0%

-2.5%

-1.6%

>30mn

-0.2%

-1.3%

-3.3%

-5.1%

Source:IcebergIndex

17JEMorgaun

HongKongProperty

18

JEMorgal

Homepricetrend(longterm)

Kongsecondaryhomepriceindex(since1994)

2202021-2025

200-30%in189weeks

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

949596979899000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

1997-2003

-69%in305weeks2008-2009

-23%in41weeks

SincedipinMar25:

+18.3%

2015-2016

-13%in28weeks

Source:Centaline

19J.EMorga

Housepricetrend(past2years)

HongKongsecondaryhomepriceindex(2024to2026YTD)

165

160

155

150

145

140

135

130

BudgetSpeech:

Liftedalladditional

stampduties

PolicyAddress:

EasedLTV&

expandedCIEStorealestate

BudgetSpeech:

PolicyAddress:Stampdutyhike

MildeasinginCIESforhomes>HK$100mn

BudgetSpeech:

Cutstampdutyfor

smallunits

Primeratecut

from5.875%to5.25%HIBORdownto<1%

+19.3%from

trough

Risingconcern

onratehike&

tighteningin

capitaloutflow

control

MiddleEastconflict

Primerate

downto5%

HIBORupto>3%

、

心心心

、

J.EMorgan

Source:Centaline20

Homepricestrend(annual)

AnnualHongKongsecondaryhomepricegrowth

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

39%

p%

-2%

8%

-18%

5%

3%

2%

34%

-8%

-12%

29%

24%

21%20%

3%6%

9%11%8%13%

3%

-15%

JPMforecastfor2026:10-15%

11%

2%

5%5%

-1%

-6%-7%

-15%

40%

-50%

-36%1styearofexpansion

afteradowncycle

9519

9619

9719

9819

9919

0020

200

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0620

20

20

20

20

420

520

620

720

820

920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

26Y20

1

0

1

2

3

TD

Source:Centaline21JEMorgal

Monthlysalesvolume

transactionvolume(primary&secondary)

No.ofunits

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

Eliminationofalladditionalstampduties

12-month

ExpandednewCIEStoresidential

ExpandednewCIESto>HK$30mnunits

Cutstampdutyforsmallunits

1stratecut

rolling

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

May-22

Jun-22

Ju-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Ju-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oc-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

PrimarysalesvolumeSecondarysales

Ju-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Oct-24

volume一

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Ju-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

May-26

Jun-26

Nov-25

12-monthrollingunits

Source:CEIC,Centaline

22JEMorgal

Source:MidlandJEMorgan

N

2020-23ang.

Week1Week3Week5Week7Week9Week11Week13Week15Week17Week19Week21Week23Week25Week27Week29Week31Week33Week35Week37Week39Week41Week43Week45Week47Week49Week51

Weeklysecondarytransactionsin35majorestates

Weeklysecondarysalesvolumehasmoderated

古8豆

MiddleEastconflicts

Weekendsecondaryviewingappointments

viewingappointmentvolume(in15housingestates)美联15大屋苑周末预约看房量

MiddleEastconflict

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26

——Midland-no.ofweekendviewingappointments(15housingestates)

Source:Midland

24JEMorgaul1

Sell-throughrateshavemoderatedduetomoreaggressivepricing

First-daysell-throughratesofprimarylaunchesoverthepastmonth

Vs.VS.

LeadLaunchASPUnitsUnitsSell-

previoussecondary

ProjectLocationDeveloperDate(HK$psf)launchedsoldthroughphaseprices

LimeSPARK

形增

TsuenWan

SHKP

23-May-26

18-20K

87

87

100%

3%

22%

HighwoodPh5

壹沐2期

ToKwaWan

Henderson

23-May-26

20-27K

35

29

83%

1%

26%

LimeSPARK

形增

TsuenWan

SHKP

30-May-26

18-20K

52

52

100%

3%

26%

HighwoodPh6

壹沐2期

ToKwaWan

Henderson

31-May-26

22-27K

23

5

22%

13%

35%

PaviliaRosa

激蕴

KowloonTong

NWD

4-Jun-26

30-36K

65

40

62%

29%

TheHeadlandResidences

海德園

ChaiWan

SwireProp

9-Jun-26

16-19K

78

41

53%

-1%

15%

PaviliaRosa

激蕴

KowloonTong

NWD

12-Jun-26

30-36K

28

16

57%

29%

OneVictoriaCovePh4

首岸4期

HungHom

Henderson

14-Jun-26

20-23K

80

59

74%

-2%

18%

OneVictoriaCovePh4

首岸4期

HungHom

Henderson

18-Jun-26

20-23K

53

5

9%

-2%

18%

LaMontagnePh4B

海盈山4B期

WongChukHang

Kerry

18-Jun-26

28-32K

75

34

45%

5%

13%

Average

576

368

64%

3%

23%

Source:HKET,HKEJ,Centaline,Midland

Note:18June2026maybepartiallyaffectedbyadverseweather(blackrainstormwarningsignal)inHongKong

25JEMorgal

MainlandChinesebuyersinHKresidentialmarket

12MainlandChinesebuyersforprivateresidential

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

091Q

093Q

101Q

103Q

111Q

113Q

121Q

123Q

131Q

133Q

141Q

143Q

151Q

153Q

161Q

163Q

171Q

173Q

181Q

183Q

191Q

193Q

201Q

203Q

211Q

213Q

221Q

223Q

231Q

233Q

241Q

243Q

251Q

253Q

261Q

Source:Centaline

Note:"MainlandChinesebuyers"aredefinedashomebuyerswithaPutonghuapingyininthelastname.

26J.EMorga1

MainlandChinesebuyersinHKresidentialmarket

tial(byvalue)

PercentageofMainlandChinesebuyersforprivateresiden

081Q

084Q

093Q

102Q

111Q

123Q

132Q

141Q

144Q

153Q

162Q

171Q

174Q

183Q

192Q

201Q

204Q

213Q

222Q

231Q

234Q

243Q

252Q

261Q

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

14Q

Primary——Secondary

Source:Centaline

Note:"MainlandChinesebuyers"aredefinedashomebuyerswithaPutonghuapingyininthelastname.

27J.EMorgan

MainlandChinesebuyersinHKresidentialmarket

PercentageofMainlandChinesebuyersinprivateresidentialsales(byvalue)

%09

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

品

081Q

084Q

093Q

102Q

111Q

114Q

123Q

132Q

141Q

144Q

153Q

162Q

171Q

174Q

183Q

192Q

201Q

204Q

213Q

222Q

231Q

234Q

243Q

252Q

261Q

Source:Centaline

Note:"MainandChinese”sdefinehereusingtheMandarinpinyinofthebuyerslastnameanddoesnotdistinguishthebuyer'scurentresicencoridentity.saresult,"MainlandChinese"whoareresidinginHongKong-aselasocalHongKongresidentswithMandarin-pinyinlastnames-arealsoclsifiedas"MainlandChinese"ithisdataset.

N

JEMorgan

MainlandChinesebuyersinHKresidentialmarket

PercentageofMainlandChinesebuyersinprivateresidentialsalesbyvolume)

品

081Q

084Q

093Q

102Q

111Q

114Q

123Q

132Q

141Q

144Q

153Q

162Q

171Q

174Q

183Q

192Q

201Q

204Q

213Q

222Q

231Q

234Q

243Q

252Q

261Q

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

Source:Centaline

Note:"MainlandChinese”isdefinehereusingtheMandarinpinyinofhebuyerslastnameanddoesnotdistinguishthebuyer'scurentresidencoridentity.saresult,"MainlandChinese”whoareresdinginHongkong-aselasocalHongkongresidentswithMandarin-pinyinlastnames-arealsoclsifiedas"MainlandChinese"itisdataset.

JEMorgan

MainlandChinesebuyersinHKresidentialmarket

HKprivateresidentialmarket-%ofbuyerswhoareNOTholdersofHongKongIdentityCard(HKID)

Individualbuyerswho

arenotHKIDholders

Volume

(units)

as%oftotal

Value

(HK$bn)

as%oftotal

FY20/21

110

0.1%

1.1

0.2%

FY21/22

153

0.2%

1.6

0.2%

FY22/23

168

0.3%

1.6

0.4%

FY23/24

700

1.6%

6.8

2.0%

FY24/25

2,997

5.5%

31.3

7.2%

Source:HKInlandRevenueDepartment

Note:FYdenotesHKgovernment'sfiscalyear(yearending31March).Forexample,FY24/25referstotheperiodfrom2Q24to1Q25.

30J.EMorgan

MainlandChinesebuyersinHKresidentialmarket

market-%ofcorporatebuyers(以公司名义购入)

5%

4%

4.5%

4.1%

3.3%

3%

2%

0.7%

1%

0%

4M26

202320242025

Source:Midland

31J.EMorgal

MainlandChinesebuyersinHKresidentialmarket

Personalcross-boundaryremittanceregulationsfromMainlandChinatoHongKongSAR

Category

Quota

Details

Facilitativeforeignexchange

arrangement

購匯便利化額度

US$50,000perpersonperyear

DireclyconductcurrencyconversionatMainlandbankswithidenitydocumentandremitoutsidetheMainland.

Ifaremitterprefersnottousethequota/theconversionquotaisreached,remitershallprovidethebankwithsupportingdocumentsforverificationoftheuseoffunds(,studyabroad,dailylife,andmedicalcare.)

PaymentConnect

跨境支付通

Followthefacilitaiveforeignexchange

arrangement(US$50,000peryear)

Real-timeandsmall-valuecross-boundaryremittancesatparticipating

institutionsintheMainland

Withdrawcashusingdebt/creditcardsissuedinMainland

AnnuallimitofRMB100,000,andadailylimitofRMB10,000

Cross-bordercashcarrying

r

Rmb20,000perpersonpertip;orUSD5,000foforeigncurrency

Source:HKMA

32J.EMorgan

出

品

Jun-19Oct-19Feb-20Jun-20Oct-20Feb-21Jun-21Oct-21Feb-22Jun-22Oct-22Feb-23Jun-23Oct-23Feb-24Jun-24Oct-24Feb-25

Jun-25Oct-25Feb-26Jun-26

CentalineRentalIndex(CRI)

CentalineRentalIndex(CRI)

公

CentalineRentalIndex(CRI)

CentalineRentalIndex(CRI)seasonality(Jan=100)

Peakseasonforrental

110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

Source:Centaline

34JEMorgan

Homepricedrivers

CorrelationwithHKhomepricesY/Y

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

DisposableMortgageRateHKDLoantoPopulationYYHKDLiquidityAffordabilityIncomeY/Ydepositratio(depositminus(priceto

loanYY)incomemultiple)

HangSengUnemploymentChinaGDP

IndexY/YRateYYY/Y

31%28%

21%19%

47%45%

Inventory

Month

34%

58%

-17%

-2%

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgan,Centaline,CEIC,HKET,Mingpao,HKMA.

JEMorgal

35

Stockmarket

HongKongsecondaryhomepriceindex(CCL)Y/YversusHangSengIndexY/Y

80%

60%40%20%0%

-20%

-40%

-60%19941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026

CCLIndex一HSI(3monthlag)

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.

J.EMorga

36

Inventory

HongKongsecondaryhomepriceindex(CCL)Y/Yversusinventorymonth

SecondaryhomepriceY/YInventorymonth(inverted)

60%-4

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

ar-01

-40%

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

ar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

ar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

6

11

16

21

26

——HKsecondaryhomepriceY/Y——Inventorymonth

Source:Centaline,BloombergFinanceL.P.

37JEMorgal

Inventory

HongKongresidentialinventorymonths

No.ofunitsunsoldInventorymonth

30,00030

25,00025

20,00020

15,00015

10,00010

5,0005

Mar-17

Mar-18

00

Mar-01

Z0-JeW

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-06

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

No.ofunitsunsold——Inventorymonth

...38J.EMorgan

Source:Centaline,JPMorgan

Inventory

HongKongprivateresidentialsupplyinnext3-4yearsversus2026Eprimarysalesvolume

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

101,000

construction/planning

Under

Potential

launchesover22,000

thenextyear

No.ofunsold

units

Privateresidentialsupplyfornext2026Eprimarysalesvoume3-4years

Source:J.P.Morganestimates,HKSARgovernment,Centaline,HKET

JEMorgal

39

Inventory

inventoryyearbasedonpotentialsupplyinnext3-4years

No.ofpotentialsupplyInventoryyear

120,00012

100,00010

80,0008

60,000

40,000

20,000

Mar-14Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25

Source:HKSARgovernment,CEIC

JEMorgal

40

Disclosures

AnalystCertification:TheResearchAna