2010年 第23届韩素音翻译比赛-英译汉 (Are we there ye.doc

【转载自李长栓的博客】第23届（2010年）韩素音翻译比赛周蕴仪的译文中国译协中国翻译编辑部与对外经济贸易大学联合举办第二十三届韩素音青年翻译奖竞赛按语：有博友问，也有学生问，所以大致做了一篇。仅供参考。汉译英的还没时间做。英译汉译文：何时走完复苏路？ 美国本次经济复苏之慢史无前例，但政府能够有所作为。周蕴仪 译李长栓 审“美利坚，汝欲何往？”美国“垮掉的一代”（Beat Generation）代表人物杰克凯鲁克（Jack Kerouac）半世纪前的疑惑，如今成为悬挂在全球经济上空的最大问号，也是美国选民的首要困扰。十一月二日中期选举在即，参加投票的选民却要面对居高不下的百分之十失业率。美国民众要做好准备，面对漫长磕绊的复苏之路。尽管自上世纪三十年代以来杀伤力最大的经济衰退已结束一年，但并不强劲的复苏步伐又在年初骤缓。第二季度按年折算之国内生产总值增幅微乎其微，仅仅上升百分之一点六，而且此后再无起色。暂时购房税优惠措施届满，房地产市场随之暴跌；私营企业新增岗位少之又少，失业率上升似乎在所难免。今年夏天，眼见复苏势头持续放缓，民心于是日趋惶恐，忧心美国经济回归衰退。幸好，目前看来，美国民众似乎担心过度。第二季度经济疲软，或许因为进口中国商品暂时激增。最新数据显示，八月零售业绩表现尚佳，申请失业津贴人数减少；经济形势虽然偏软，但已不再节节败退。况且，历史证明，即使复苏初期步履蹒跚，却罕有返回萎缩之例。目前形势显示，美国经济极可能以百分之二点五的涨幅缓慢爬升，虽然高于失速，却无济于降低失业率。美国经济衰退向来迅速回弹，为何此次复苏前景如此堪忧？原因是，过去经济萎缩源于紧缩性货币政策；只要放宽货币政策，便可提振需求。但本次衰退的罪魁祸首是金融危机。一般而言，经济若遭金融危机重创，复苏进程便会疲弱缓慢，因为银行体系必须修复，银行资产负债结构有待重组。由于银行减持债务通常需要七年之久，也就意味着美国要到2014年才能走出低谷。美国家庭减债速度之快，可说非同寻常；但即使乐观估计，其减债征程至多只走了一半。复苏路上的党派博弈 美国的主要问题，是政客尚未承认经济复苏将是一场漫长拉力，因此，更别指望他们做好准备应对衰退后果。尽管若干官员已挺身而出，警告国人失业率可能“居高不下”，但国内的政治争论更关心诿过于人，而非提供妙计良方，为复苏引擎注入新动力。共和党辩称，经济疲软不振是奥巴马转向“大政府”政策所致，而高失业率则“证明”用财政手段刺激经济毫无成效。其实，迄今为止，政府职权扩大，大都是必要的权宜之策；政府职权的长期扩幅相对较小，奥巴马并未背离自身或其前任的执政理念。而把高失业率归咎于财政刺激手段失灵是大谬不然；根据金融危机传导机理，若无财政刺激，衰退必然更严重。在党派诿责的游戏中，民主党惯用阶级斗争理论：华尔街的肆意妄行是祸根；提高富人的税率是一个脱困方案。因此，中期选举前，奥巴马的立法工作重点将针对布什政府的减税政策，即确保年底结束对年收入二十五万美元以上家庭的减税待遇，但对其它家庭延长减税优惠。然而，对经济的短期恢复而言，此举会招致无谓风险。美国1937年和日本1997年的经历便是前车之鉴。提税时机不对，偏弱的经济将会返退。加重高收入群体税负，加上财政刺激减少与各州的紧缩政策，只会让疲弱的增长更加软绵无力。另外，奥巴马的财政计划有个鲜受关注的问题：对中产阶级实施永久性减税，将会加剧中期预算危机。翻修经济引擎之道理想方案，是致力于中期税改，并削减开支，以控制预算；与此同时，预留暂时放松财政政策的空间。可惜，美国政坛党派交锋、硝烟弥漫，实施理想对策简直是异想天开。唯今之计，只能设定比较保守的目标：继续扶助虚弱经济复苏，尽量减少不确定因素，为日后财政辩论做好准备。为此，国会应该把布什的全部减税措施延至2013年；届时，所有减税优惠将一齐到期。到那时候，经济底盘更加牢固，政府可对财税政策进行大修。政策配套越全面，会越快消除衰退后遗症。重点之一是鼓励银行减记抵押贷款债务。美国约四分之一的按揭房产，是贷款余额高于房产市值的“溺水屋”。银行如不实行资产减值，止赎案例上升和房价下跌的恶性循环将交替持续。可供借鉴的对策其实不少，比如，通过修订破产法，赋权法官重组抵押债务，或政府授权特别受托人，由特别受托人冲减债务账面价值等。尽管这些方案美中不足，但若任其自然，势必重蹈日本政府当年巨资搭救“僵尸企业”的覆辙：臭甚的溺水僵尸会吸走金融体系的血液，破坏经济复苏的进程。清理房地产市场可促进就业迁移，从而降低失业率。然单凭此举远不足够。要避免高失业率变成顽疾，则需要采取更多措施，比如，实施薪工税抵减，以降低雇佣成本。（医改的效果则相反；至少小企业因医改而增加成本。）有些工人转岗缺乏必要技能，政府还需深入思考就业培训方案。复苏路漫漫，但美国民众早已习惯长途跋涉。关键是接受路途遥远的事实。美国民众和政界越早接受这事实，便越快走完复苏路。-原文：Are We There Yet?Americas recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit. “WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the countrys unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recoverynone too powerful to begin withslowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, Americas economy would slip back into recession.Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that Americas economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.Why, given that America usually rebounds from recession, are the prospects so bleak? Thats because most past recessions have been caused by tight monetary policy. When policy is loosened, demand rebounds. This recession was the result of a financial crisis. Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt. Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014. By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the process is much more than half over.Battling on the busAmericas biggest problem is that its politicians have yet to acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul, let alone prepare for the consequences. A few brave officials are beginning to sound warnings that the jobless rate is likely to “stay high”. But the political debate is more about assigning blame for the recession than about suggesting imaginative ways to give more oomph to the recovery.Republicans argue that Barack Obamas shift towards “big government” explains the economys weakness, and that high unemployment is proof that fiscal stimulus was a bad idea. In fact, most of the growth in government to date has been temporary and unavoidable; the longer-run growth in government is more modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his predecessor. And the notion that high joblessness “proves” that stimulus failed is simply wrong. The mechanics of a financial bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the recession would have been much worse.Democrats have their own class-warfare version of the blame game, in which Wall Streets excesses caused the problem and higher taxes on high-earners are part of the solution. That is why Mr. Obamas legislative priority before the mid-terms is to ensure that the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year for households earning more than $250,000 but are extended for everyone else.This takes an unnecessary risk with the short-term recovery. Americas experience in 1937 and Japans in 1997 are powerful evidence that ill-timed tax rises can tip weak economies back into recession. Higher taxes at the top, along with the waning of fiscal stimulus and belt-tightening by the states, will make a weak growth rate weaker still. Less noticed is that Mr. Obamas fiscal plan will also worsen the medium-term budget mess, by making tax cuts for the middle class permanent.Ways to overhaul the engineIn an ideal world America would commit itself now to the medium-term tax reforms and spending cuts needed to get a grip on the budget, while leaving room to keep fiscal policy loose for the moment. But in febrile, partisan Washington that is a pipe-dream. Todays goals can only be more modest: to nurture the weak economy, minimize uncertainty and prepare the ground for tomorrows fiscal debate. To that end, Congress ought to extend all the Bush tax cuts until 2013. Then they should all expireprompting a serious fiscal overhaul, at a time when the economy is stronger.A broader set of policies could help to work off the hangover faster. One priority is to encourage more write-downs of mortgage debt. Almost a quarter of all Americans with mortgages owe more than their houses are worth. Until that changes the vicious cycle of rising foreclosures and falling prices will continue. There are plenty of ideas on offer, from changing the bankruptcy law so that judges can restructure mortgage debt to empowering special trustees to wri