新结构经济学——林毅夫

KuznetsLectureNewStructuralEconomics:AFrameworkforRethinkingDevelopment,JustinYifuLinChiefEconomistandSeniorVicePresidenttheWorldBankMarch1,2011,1,OverviewofPresentation,WhydoweneedtorethinkdevelopmentTheNewStructuralEconomicsIndustrialPolicyandGrowthIdentificationandFacilitation:Anapplicationofnewstructuraleconomics,2,WHYDOWENEEDTORETHINKDEVELOPMENT,3,EconomicCrisisandCrisisinEconomics,4,Howhaseconomicdevelopmenttheoryevolved?,SuccessfulEastAsianTigers:ExportPromotion,China,VietnamandMauritius:Dual-trackapproachtotransition,5,WorldBankhasbeenintheprocessofrethinkingeconomicdevelopment,ExportOrientationandMarketFriendlyGovernment,Openness;Macrostability;HighratesofsavingCommitted,credibleandbigbanksandequitymarketwillplayincreasinglyimportantroleasthefirmsizeandrisksincreasewiththelevelofdevelopment.Fiscalstimulus:Oldstructuralism:Keynesianstimulus,usingtaxandexpenditurepoliciestooffsetbusinesscycles.Neoclassics:RicardianEquivalence,warmingagainsttheuseoffiscalstimulus.NewStructuraleconomics:BeyondKeynesianism,usingpublicinvestmentstoinvestinproductivity-enhancing,bottleneck-releasinginfrastructureprojectsascountercyclicalmeasures.,16,THEINDUSTRIALPOLICY&GROWTHIDENTIFICATIONANDFACILITATION,17,ThedesirabilityandfailuresofIndustrialPolicy,Economicdevelopmentisaprocessofcontinuousprocessofindustrialupgradingandstructuraltransformation.Thestateshouldplayafacilitatingroleintheprocess.IndustrialpolicyisanecessaryinstrumentforthestatetoplaythefacilitatingroleContentsofcoordinationwillbedifferent,dependingonindustries.Thegovernmentsresourcesandcapacityarelimited.Thegovernmentneedstousethemstrategically.Thesadfactisthatmostgovernmentsinthedevelopingworldusedindustrialpoliciesbutfailed,thereasonwas:AttempttodevelopindustriesthatwentagainstcomparativeadvantageThefirmsintheindustrialpolicystargetedsectorswerenon-viableincompetitivemarketsandrequiredgovernmentpolicysupportsfortheirinitialinvestmentandcontinuousoperations.Thesupportswereimplementedthroughpricedistortions.Asaresult,planningandadministrativeallocationswererequired.Thisledtorent-seeking,directlyunproductiveprofitseeking,andsoftbudgetconstraints.,18,Theexistingapproachesforindustrialdevelopmentandtheirdrawbacks,Theexistingpractices:BusinessenvironmentThegoalistointroduceawholesetofthefirst-bestinstitutionsTheissuesare:ThegovernmentmaynothavethecapacitytointroduceallthosechangesThefirst-bestinstitutionsmaybedifferentatdifferentstageofdevelopmentNoidentificationofindustrieswithlatentcomparativeadvantagesandnocompensationforthefirstmoversGrowthDiagnosticsThegoalistoremovebindingconstraintsTheissuesare:BindingconstraintsareendogenoustoindustriesItreliesonsurveyofexistingfirms.Manyofthemmaybeinindustrieswherethecountryhasnocomparativeadvantages.NofirmswillbeinthenewindustriesthatthecountrieshavelatentcomparativeadvantageAimbeforefire:Foranindustrialpolicytobesuccessful,itshouldtargetsectorsthatconformtotheeconomyslatentcomparativeadvantage:FirmswillbeviableandthesectorswillbecompetitiveoncethegovernmenthelpsthefirmsovercomethecoordinationandexternalityissuesButhowtopickthesectorsthataretheeconomyslatentcomparativeadvantages,19,WhatCanBeLearnedFromHistory,Historicalexperiencesshowthatsuccessfulcountriesindustrialpolicies,ingeneral,targeteddynamicindustriesinsuccessfulcountrieswithasimilarendowmentstructureandsomewhathigherpercapitaincome:BritaintargetedtheNetherlandsindustriesinthe16thand17thcentury,itspercapitaGDPwasabout70%ofNetherlands.Germany,France,andUSAtargetedBritainsindustriesinthelate19thcentury,theirpercapitaincomewereabout60to75%ofBritainspercapitaGDPInMeijirestoration,JapantargetedPrussiasindustries,itspercapitaGDPwasabout40%ofPrussias.Inthe1960s,JapantargetedUSAsindustries,itspercapitaGDPwasabout40%ofUSAspercapitaGDPInthe1960s-1980s,Korea,Taiwan,HongKong,andSingaporetargetedJapansindustries,theirpercapitaincomewasabout30%ofJapanspercapitaGDPInthe1970s,MauritiustargetedHongKongsindustries,itspercapitaincomewasabout50%ofHongKongs.Inthe1980s,Irelandtargetedinformationindustries,itspercapitaincomewasabout45%oftheUSAs.Inthe1990s,CostaRicatargetedmemorychipassemblyandtesting,itspercapitaGDPwasabout40%ofthatofTaiwan,whichwasthemaineconomyinthissector.UnsuccessfulindustrialpoliciesingeneraltargetindustriesincountrieswheretheirpercapitaGDPswerelessthan20percentofthosetargetedcountries.Anewapproachforindustrialpolicy:Growthidentificationandfacilitation,20,Step1:Identifyingsectorswithlatentcomparativeadvantage,Finddynamicgrowingcountrieswithasimilarendowmentstructureandwithabout100%higherpercapitaincome.Identifytradableindustriesthathavegrownwellinthosecountriesforthelast20yearsasthepotentialtargetsofindustriesforupgradingordiversificationSimilartoHausmannsideaofjumpingtonearbytrees,buteasiertoimplementConsistentwithFDIresearchsuggestingtechnologytransferiseasierwhendomesticandforeignfirmsareclosertoeachotheronthetechnologicalfrontier(Blomstrom,Kokko),Step2:Removingconstraintsforexistingfirms.How?,Seeifsomeprivatedomesticfirmsarealreadyinthoseindustries(ofwhichmaybeexistingornascent).Identifyconstraintstoqualityupgrading,furtherfirmentry,andreductionoftransactioncosts(hardandsoftinfrastructure).TakeactiontoremoveconstraintsMethods:Value-chainanalysisGrowthDiagnostics(Hausmann,Rodrik,andVelasco(2008)InvestmentClimateAssessments(WorldBank)SuccessfulExamplesChile:wineEcuador:cutflowers,Step3:SeekFDIororganizeNewFirmIncubationPrograms,Inindustrieswherenodomesticfirmsarecurrentlypresent,seekFDIfromcountriesexaminedinstep1,ororganizenewfirmincubationprograms.FamousexamplesofFDI:garmentsectorinBangladeshTextileindustryinMauritiusMemorychipassemblyandtestinginCostaRicaElectronicsandotherconsumerproductsinChinaInformationindustriesinIrelandLauraAlfaroandAndrewCharlton,inapaperintheJournalofInternationalEconomics,showthat:ManycountriespromoteFDIselectivelyTargetedsectorsgrowfasterFamousexampleofincubationprograms:Taiwan-ChinasHsingchuScience-basedIndustrialParkforthedevelopmentofelectronicandITindustriesFundacinChilesdemonstrationofcommercialsalmonfarming,Step4:Scaleupprivatefirmsselfdiscovery,Inadditiontotheindustriesidentifiedabove,thegovernmentshouldalsopayattentiontospontaneousselfdiscoverybyprivateenterprisesandgivesupporttoscaleupthesuccessfulprivateinnovationsinnewindustriesExamplesIndiasinformationindustryEthiopiascutflowerexportsPerusasparagusexports,24,Step5:Createzonesorindustrialparks,andencourageindustrialclusters,Incountrieswithpoorinfrastructureandbadbusinessenvironment,specialeconomiczonesorindustrialparksmaybeusedtoovercomethesebarrierstofirmentryandFDIandencourageindustrialclusters.Examples:ChinasspecialeconomiczonesMauritiusexportprocesszoneEnormousIncreaseinNumberofZonesWorldWide:from29in1975to3500in2006!Thezoneswillbes