世界经济学（本）

GeneralTheoryofWorldEconomicsZhangbinDepartmentofEconomicsSchoolofBusinessandManagementDonghuaUniversity3/9/20231GeneralIntroductiontotheCourse1.TheConceptofWorldEconomics（1）The“Total-sum”Definition世界经济是各国国民经济的总和。世界经济是在社会发展到一定阶段形成的处于复杂的相互作用和相互依存关系的各国经济的总和。（2）The“Market”Definition世界经济就是世界市场。3/9/20232（3）The“WorldSystem”DefinitionWorldeconomyreferstoalltraderelationsandmovementsofcapitalbetweengeographicalunits.Itcanbeunderstoodasasystemofrules,organizationsandinstitutionsthatregulateworldeconomicrelations.Itcanalsobeunderstoodasacompetitivestatessystem,wherestatesstandinacontinuousstruggleforpower,actingontheinternationalmarketfortheirowninterests.3/9/202332.TheDifferencebetweenWorldEconomicsandInternationalEconomics

世界经济

大洲经济

区域经济

国家经济国家、区域或集团经济国家、区域或集团经济国际经济3/9/202353.TheResearchFieldsoftheWorldEconomics(1)ThefundamentalsoftheworldeconomyConcept;Motives;Overallstructures;Overallgrowthandperformance;Coordinationoftradepolicies,foreignexchangepoliciesandmacroeconomicpolicies.(2)ThehistoricaldevelopmentoftheworldeconomyTradeliberalization;Capitalinternalization;Productioninternationalizationandintegration..(3)Thestudyofmajoreconomies

Majornationaleconomies;Majorregionaleconomies.3/9/202364。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点a.Neo-realism:HegemonicStabilityTheory①AboutRobertGilpin1930生于佛蒙特；1952毕业于佛蒙特大学1954康乃尔大学硕士；1956加州大学伯克利分校博士1960-1961哈佛大学博士后1961年起普林斯顿大学国际关系学教授1975-1976美国总统技术和经济顾问团成员主要著作：ThePoliticalEconomyofInternationalRelations(1987)是当前西方IPE领域最杰出的研究成果之一3/9/202374。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点b.Neo-idealism:InterdependenceTheory①AboutRobertKeohaneandJosephNye,Jr罗伯特·基欧汉：1966哈佛大学博士，现为杜克大学政治学教授，美国科学与艺术学院院士。约瑟夫·奈：哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长两人为当前IPE领域最具影响力的学者，两人于1977年合著的PowerandInterdependence:WorldPoliticsinTransition是相互依存论的代表作。②ThemainideaofInterdependenceTheoryⅰ多渠道交流ⅱ多领域相融ⅲ武力作用下降3/9/202394。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点c.DependencyTheory①RaulPrebischandtheCore-peripheryTheory②AndreGunderFrankandtheMetropolis-satelliteTheory③DosSantosandthedefinitionofDependence3/9/2023105.Aboutthetextbook(1)

ThemainideaofthetextbookAsyntheticandcomprehensivesurveyofthetrade,monetary,investmentandfinancialdimensionsofthecontemporaryworldeconomy:Internationaleconomicactivitymusthaveasecurepoliticalfoundation,butthecontemporarypoliticalfoundationforinternationaleconomicliberalismarefragile;TheendoftheColdWarremovedthesecurityrationaleforeconomiccooperationamongadvancedeconomies;Themultilateraltradingsystemischallengedbyregionalism;Theglobalmonetaryandfinancialsystemsareunstable;Anti-globalizationandprotectionismarerising.3/9/2023116.ReferenceBooksandPeriodicalsBooks:张幼文等

世界经济概论高等教育出版社2003年第2版张幼文金芳世界经济学立信会计出版社2006年池元吉世界经济概论高等教育出版社2006年第2版樊勇明西方国际政治学上海人民出版社2001年1月宋新宁陈岳国际政治经济学概论中国人民大学出版社1999年12月3/9/2023136.ReferenceBooksandPeriodicalsPeriodicals:《世界经济研究》上海社科院世经所《世界经济》中国世界经济学会和中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所《世界经济与政治》中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所《世界经济与政治论坛》江苏社科院《世界经济》中国人民大学资料复印中心3/9/202314Introduction:TheFragileGlobalEconomy

KeyWordsandPhrases1.Capitalflow2.tradeprotection3.wealtheffect4.corporaterestructuring5.entrepreneurship6.FederalRernationalcompetitiveness9.NAE10.speculativebubble11.economicboom(recession)12.ernationalfinancialandmonetarysystem18.financialcrisis19.realwages20.regionaleconomicarrangement21.NAFTA22.fasttrackauthority23.BrettonWoodsSystem24.appropriation25.multilateralism26.multitracktradepolicy27.managedtrade28.economicregionalism29.EU30.PlazaAmandeconomy33.deregulation34.privatization

3/9/202315Introduction

I.TheGrowthandInstabilityofCapitalism1.Technologicalprogress:thedrivingforceofcapitalismAboutJosephSchumpeter(1883-1950)美籍奥地利经济学家，当代西方经济学家重要代表人物之一。主要著作：《经济发展理论》1912，《经济周期》1939《资本主义、社会主义和民主主义》1942主要观点：创新就是把一种从未有过的关于生产要素和生产条件的新组合引入生产体系。

创新创造性的毁灭过程经济周期3/9/202317Figure:BusinesscycleRealGDPTimeSlump/TroughRecoveryBoom/PeakSlump/TroughRecessionLongruntrend3/9/202318Introduction

I.TheGrowthandInstabilityofCapitalism2.Instability:theaftermathofcreativedestruction(1)Imbalanceofeconomicdevelopmentwithinandamongnations(2)Threattotraditionalsocialvalues,beliefsandinstitutions(3)Periodicrecessionsanddownturns(4)Concentrationofwealth,powerandeconomicactivities(5)Revoltagainstanopenglobaleconomy3/9/202319Introduction:II.NAE:TriumphofCapitalism1.ThegeneralreasonsforNAE(1)Governmentderegulation(2)Corporaterestructuring(3)Technologicaladvances2.ThespecificreasonsforNAE(1)Largeexportstooverseasmarkets(2)Largeamountsofimportedcapital(3)SkillfulmanagementoftheeconomybytheFed(4)Fullofrawmaterialprices3/9/202321表：ChronologyofAlanGreenspan1926.3.6生于美国纽约市1948纽约大学商学院经济学学士1950纽约大学商学院经济学硕士1977纽约大学博士1966尼克松总统经济政策研究室主任1974福特总统经济顾问委员会主席1981-1983里根总统经济顾问委员会主席1987由里根提名，出任Fed主席1991布什提名，连任Fed主席1996克林顿提名，再任Fed主席2001克林顿提名，第三次连任Fed主席2006卸任3/9/202322Introduction:II.NAE:TriumphofCapitalism3.TheCharacteristicsofNAELowinflationLowunemploymentLowfederalbudgetdeficitHighexpansion/productivityWealtheffect3/9/202323Figure:DowJonesIndexandWealthEffect3/9/202325Figure:NASDAQIndex1971-20103/9/202326图:国际油价变动(1946-2010)3/9/202329Introduction:II.NAE:TriumphofCapitalism4.TheproblemsoftheU.S.economy(1)Thelargestdebtor(2)TheinevitableburstoftheNAEbubbleTheparadoxoftechnologicalinnovationTechnologicalinnovationNAEhighspeedofinnovationthesurplusoftechnologywasteoftechnologyloseofventurecapital3/9/202330图:美国的双赤字(单位:亿美圆)3/9/202331Table:China’sHoldingsofUSSecurities($bn)SecuritiesT-securitiesAmount%ofTotalForeignHoldings20021881189.6200325515910.4200434122312.1200552731015.2200669939718.9200792247820.32008120572723.62009146489524.23/9/202332Introduction:II.NAE:TriumphofCapitalism5.次贷危机（subprimemortgagecrisis）（1）基本情况2007年4月2日：美国第二大次级房贷公司新世纪金融公司申请破产保护。2008年5月29日

贝尔斯登公司股东接受收购协议，同意将公司出售给摩根大通2008年7月13日美国财政部和美联储连手推出了拯救美国抵押贷款业两大巨头——房地美和房利美的计划，其中包含了向这两家公司直接提供贷款和买入其股份在内的一系列措施2008年7月14日索罗斯称当前金融危机是其一生中碰到的最严重的金融危机2008年9月15日

雷曼兄弟申请破产保护，美林证券被美国银行收购，当日美股大泻504点；最大保险集团AIG陷入财政危机2008年9月21日美联储宣布批准美国第一大投行高盛和第二大投行摩根斯坦利实施业务转型，转为银行控股公司，即普通商业银行。2008年10月3日布什签署了7000亿美元的救市计划3/9/202333Introduction:II.NAE:TriumphofCapitalism（2）什么是次贷危机无房少房、支付能力低、信用差的穷人，在购买住房后无力偿还抵押贷款而引发的金融问题。美国房地产贷款系统里面分为了三类：优质贷款市场、次优级的贷款市场、次级贷款市场。目前出问题的就是美国的第三类市场。一类贷款市场面向信用额度等级较高、收入稳定可靠的优质客户，而三类贷款市场是面向收入证明缺失、负债较重的客户，因信用要求程度不高，其贷款利率通常比一般抵押贷款高出2%至3%，在美国次级贷款市场所占份额并不大。按照官方说法，次级房贷占美国整体房贷市场比重的7%到8%，但其利润最高，风险最大。3/9/202334图:次贷危机示意图3/9/202335Introduction:II.NAE:TriumphofCapitalism（3）爆发及蔓延原因①互联网泡沫问题未解决②虚拟经济过度膨胀③美国的经济政策：双赤字+出口管制④经济自由主义理念导致对金融业放松监管⑤其他国家金融市场的开放

3/9/202336Introduction:II.NAE:TriumphofCapitalism（4）全球蔓延冰岛：货币贬值一半，3家银行欠债610亿美圆，12倍于经济总量，人均负债20万美圆，濒临破产。2008年10月24日，IMF向该国提供20亿援助贷款。此后，IMF同意向乌克兰提供160亿援助贷款；向匈牙利提供100亿，目前仍在与IMF协商贷款的有白俄罗斯、塞尔维亚、巴基斯坦等。雷曼兄弟破产后，欧洲金融机构因与之衍生产品交易而面临巨额损失。3/9/202337Introduction:III.TheGlobalEconomy1.Thecharacteristicsofglobaleconomy(1)Fromasharplydividedinternationaleconomytoanincreasinglyintegratedglobalcapitaleconomy(2)Emergingmarketsshiftingglobaleconomicpowerandcreatingancompetitiveinternationaleconomy,resultingglobaleconomicimbalance(3)Advancedindustrializedcountriesshiftingfrommanufacturing-basedtoservice-basedeconomies(4)Thetideofglobalization3/9/202338Table:

China-USMerchandiseTradeImbalance（bnUSD）YearChineseDataUSDataExportsImportsBalanceExportsImportsBalance19801.03.8-2.719852.74.4-019904.85.0-0.24.815.2-10.4199524.716.18.611.745.6-33.8200052.122.429.716.3100.1-83.8200154.3102.3-83.1200270.027.242.822.1125.2-103.1200392.533.958.628.4152.4-124.02004124.944.780.234.7196.7-162.02005162.948.7114.241.8243.5-201.62006203.559.2144.355.2287.8-232.52007232.769.4163.365.2321.5-256.32008252.381.4170.967.2337.7-266.33/9/202339Table:USMerchandiseTradeBalanceswithMajorTradingPartners(BnUSD)CountryorTradingGroupUSTradeBalanceShare%200720082009200720082009World-791.0-800.0-500.9100.0100.0100.0China-256.3-266.3-226.832.433.345.3OPEC-127.4-175.6-61.8EU27-107.4-93.4-60.5Japan-82.8-72.7-44.8Mexico-74.3-64.4-47.5Canada-64.7-74.6-20.2ASEAN-50.6-50.6-38.23/9/202340Introduction:

III.TheGlobalEconomy2.ThenegativeimpactofglobalizationGlobalizationoffinancialcrises1997.7.2Thaibahtdepreciated20%7.11Philippinepesofell10.4%IndonesianrupiahandMalaysianringgitfellSingaporedollarfell17%(endDec.)KoreanwonfellJapaneseyenfell1998.8.17Russianroublefell50%1997.10.27Mexico,Brazil,Argentina,Venezuela,ChileandPerustockmarketsfell13-14%

2008U.S.subprime(mortgage)crisis

3/9/202341Introduction:

III.TheGlobalEconomy3.ThereasonsfortheinstabilityofglobaleconomyVulnerabilityoftheinternationalfinancialandmonetarysystemSpreadofregionaleconomicarrangementsPoliticalfoundationoftheinternationaleconomyunderminedPoliticalfoundationsofastableandprosperousworldeconomyStronginternationalleadershipCooperativerelationsamongmajoreconomicpowersCommitmentbyworldcitizenstoanopeneconomy3/9/202342Introduction:

III.TheGlobalEconomyB.ThepoliticalfoundationsunderminedAmericanleadershipweakenedGlobalizationaccusedbyAmericancitizensEconomiccooperationamongmajoreconomicpowerserodedU.S.:multilateralismmultitracktradepolicy,managedtradeandregionalismEU:concentrationoneconomicunificationoftheContinentJapan:renewalofattentiontoPacificAsia3/9/202343Introduction:

III.TheGlobalEconomy(4)MarketvsstateTheviewofeconomicliberalism:ThefailureofthecommandandclosedeconomiesmarketeconomyDeregulationandprivatizationofdevelopedcountriespromotionofmarketmechanismmarketforcesdefeatthestateintheeconomymarket-dominatedworldeconomywillprogresstowardhigherlevelofprosperityandstabilityGilpin’sview:Theprocessofcreativedestructioncapitalismcreatesitsowninternalenemiescapitalismwithoutregulationwilldamageitself3/9/202344Introduction:

IV.ConclusionInternationalpoliticssignificantlyaffectsthenatureanddynamicsoftheinternationaleconomy.Theinternationalrules/regimesthatgoverninternationaleconomicaffairscannotsucceedunlesstheyaresupportedbyastrongpoliticalbase.Theunderpinningofthepost-WWIIglobaleconomyhassteadilyerodedsincetheendoftheSovietthreat.Toensuresurvivaloftheglobaleconomy,themajorpowersmustrecommitthemselvestoworktogethertorebuildtheweakenedpoliticalfoundations3/9/202345Chapter1:TheSecondGreatAgeofCapitalism

KeyWordsandPhrases

1.Bipolarstability2.multipolarworld3.geo-economics4.Unilateralism5.import-substitution6.export-ledgrowth7.tradebarrier8.tradenegotiation9.averagetariff10.barriertotradetoservices11.capitalcontrol12.financialinstrument13.mutualfund14.pensionfund15.Derivative16FDI17.capitalintensivesector18.tradeliberalization19.globalandregionalintegration20.welfarestate21.manufacturedgoods22.WorldEconomicForum23.Deindustrialization24.Productivecapacitysurplus25.Sovereignnation26.Merger27.Overcapacity28.Underconsumption29.Expansionaryeconomicpolicies30.Laissezfaire3/9/202346Chapter1:TheSecondGreatAgeofCapitalism

KeyWordsandPhrases31.BrettonWoodsSystem32.Ethnicandnationalisticconflict33.Informationeconomy34.Knowledgeeconomy35.Nonresidentialfixedcapital36.Productlifecycle37.Diffusionoftechnology38.Strategicandtechnologicalalliances39.Luddite40.Downsizing41.Reengineering42.Assemblyline43.Tradesurplus44.Dependencytheory45.Budgetdeficit46.Inflationrate47.ASEAN48.CairnsGroup49.Percapitaincome50.Totalfactorproductivity51.EU52.EEC53.Regionalintegration54.Regionaleconomicbloc55.SingleEuropeanAct56.UruguayRound57.tradenegotiation58.RTA59.Dillon/Kennedy/TokyoRound60.Economiesofscale3/9/202347Chapter1:TheSecondGreatAgeofCapitalism

KeyWordsandPhrases61.SouthAmericaregionalbloc(Mercosur)62.Customsunion63.Freetradearea64.Bargainposition65.TreatyonEuropeanUnion(MaastrichtTreaty)66.Optimuntariff67.Strategictradepolicy68.Oligopoly69.Oligopolisticcompetition70.Economicnationalism71.Stagflation72.Governanceoftheworldeconomy73.Bilateraltreaty74.Goldstandard75.Internationalmonetarysystem76.BankofEngland77.GreatDepression78.KeynesianEconomics79.Principleofnondiscrimination3/9/202348Table:DavosWorldEconomicForum1970瑞士日内瓦大学商业管理学教授克劳斯·施瓦布(KlausSchwab)第一次尝试与1971年1月召集欧洲一些企业领袖在Davos举办非正式聚会；1971施瓦布创立“欧洲管理论坛”，使达沃斯的非正式聚会演变成年度正式会议1976欧洲管理论坛发展成一以成员为基础的组织；1979论坛首次出版年度《全球竞争力报告》，同年邀请中国参会1982第一次世界经济领袖非正式会议召开，并成为一年一度的达沃斯论坛的一项传统；1987管理论坛更名为“世界经济论坛”；1997论坛主题：持续的全球化问题；1999论坛主题：负责任的全球化；2002主题：911后世界政治、经济形势论坛网址：3/9/202349Chapter1:TheSecondGreatAgeofCapitalism

MainPointsIntroductionTheTriumphofEconomicLiberalismEconomicGlobalizationTechnology,theInformationEconomyandServicesTheGlobalShiftofEconomicPowerTheDemographicRevolutionTheChallengeofGlobalRegionalismManagingtheGlobalEconomy3/9/202350Chapter1:I.Introduction1.ThetwoGreatAgesofcapitalism(1)PaxBritannica:thedominanceoftheBritishEmpire,economically,politicallyandmilitarily,intheinternationalsystembetween1815and1914,whenBritainprovidedsuchinternationalpublicgoodsastheencouragementoffreetradeandtheprovisionofalenderoflastresort.(2)PaxAmericana:thedonimanceoftheUS,botheconomicallyandpolitically,intheinternationalsystemofthepost-WWIIperiod,whentheUSpromotedtheestablishmentofGATTandIMF.3/9/202351Chapter1:I.Introduction2.Theprofoundtransformationofworldeconomicandpoliticalsysteminthepost-ColdWarworldThecollapseoftheSovietUnionAstagnantandyetrichJapanThereunificationofGermanyanditsreturnasthedominantpowerinEuropeTheriseofChinaandPacificAsiaThetechnologicalrevolutionandinformationeconomyTheredistributionofeconomicpowerTheretreatofthestateThedemographicrevolutionTheeconomicglobalization3/9/202352Chapter1:II.TheTriumphofEconomicLiberalism1.Unipolar,bipolar,ormultipolar:whichoneisthemostexpected?(1)Bipolarsystem:securityinterestsandalliancecohesionheldtheworldeconomytogetherstability(2)Multipolarsystem:nationalinterestsfirstethnic,politicalandeconomicconflictA.ShiftinAmericanpolicya.Militarysecurityeconomicsecurityb.Geo-politicsgeo-economicsc.Mutilateralismunilateralism,regionalismmanagedtrade3/9/202353Chapter1:II.TheTriumphofEconomicLiberalismB.ShiftintheprioritiesofEuropeandJapanLesswillingtofollowAmericanleadershipRegionalism:EUandPacificAsia2.TheramificationsoftheshiftsinnationalprioritiesfortheworldeconomyClosecooperationweakenedthehealthandstabilityofworldeconomythreatened3.ReasonsfortheeconomicturmoilafterColdWarPublic’smisconceptionsandself-servingdemandsEconomists’responsibility3/9/202354Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization1.DefinitionGlobalizationreferstoasetofprocessesleadingtotheintegrationofeconomicactivityinfactor,intermediate,andfinalgoodsandservicesmarketsacrossgeographicalboundaries,andtheincreasedsalienceofcross-bordervaluechainsininternationaleconomicflows.Globalizationreferstothegrowingeconomicinterdependenceofcountriesworldwidethroughtheincreasingvolumeandvarietyofcross-bordertransactionsingoodsandservicesandofinternationalcapitalflows,andalsothroughthemorerapidandwidespreaddiffusionoftechnology.3/9/202355Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization2.Theevolutionofglobalization虽然国内外多数学者认为全球化并非新现象，而是一个历史过程，但对阶段的划分尚不一致。

3/9/202356Table:Epochalshiftsinglobalizationsince1820阶段产品市场一体化程度劳动力市场一体化程度资本市场一体化程度前工业化时期要素流动程度低；贸易为少数国家垄断并局限于奢侈品第一次全球化高潮（1820-1914）

产品价格差距削减81%。原因：72%来自运输成本下降，28%来自关税削减

各国外来移民比重上升。原因：运输成本下降

由完全分割向市场一体化推进，一体化程度达60%

全球化进程倒退期（1914-1950）

产品价格差距扩大一倍，倒退至1870年水平。原因：新的贸易壁垒

各国外来移民比重下降。原因：限制性的移民政策

倒退到完全分割状态

第二次全球化高潮（1950至今）

产品价格差距削减76%原因：74%来自运输成本下降，26%来自关税削减

各国外来移民比重上升。原因：运输成本下降完全分割向市场一体化推进，一体化程度达60%

总体上（1820至今）

产品价格差距削减92%原因：82%来自运输成本下降，18%来自政策效果

各国外来移民比重无明显变化。原因：政策的限制抵消了运输成本的下降

完全分割向市场一体化推进，一体化程度达60%

3/9/202357Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization3.FactorsinitiatingglobalizationTechnologicalchangeSpreadofmarket-basedsystemsProgressofDomesticpoliticsglobalizationInter-staterivalry

3/9/202358Table:GlobalizationChronology（I）3/9/202359Table:GlobalizationChronology（II）3/9/202360Table:GlobalizationChronology（III）3/9/202361Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization4.Thefacetsofglobalization(1)TradeliberalizationA.TwotidesoffreetradeIndustrialrevolutionin1760sfreetradepolicyinUKsince1820UKbecameafree-tradenationin1860stheNetherlands,Belgium,etcbecamefreetradenationsanintegratedworldmarketwithfreetradeemergedin1870Britisheconomywentdownfreetradeenthusiasmdissipatedinlate19thcenturyb.TheenforcementofGATT8roundsoftradenegotiationTBsandNTBseliminatedexpansionofworldtrade3/9/202362表世界货物及服务贸易增长统计（十亿美元）货物贸易a服务贸易b国际贸易cb/c(%)19702836634918.9197579815695416.419801856353221815.919831508333184118.119882880625350517.8199440901080517020.9199549201170609019.2199651001200630019.0199852001300650020.0200264551570802519.62004888021001098019.120051039324151280818.920061208327551483818.620071395032901724019.13/9/202363表:两次经济全球化浪潮3/9/202364Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalizationB.Reasonsfortradeexpansiona.Eliminationoftradebarriersb.Deregulationandprivatizationc.Technologicaladvancesincommunicationsandtransportation3/9/202365Appendix:Aboutprivatization●Definition:transferringassetsfromthepublicsectortotheprivatesector.●Advantagesofprivatization①Providingrevenueforthegovernment②Cuttingpublicspending③Increasingcompetition●advantagesofnationalization①Economiesofscale②Preventingmonopoly③Strategicreasons3/9/202366Table:GATTNegotiatingRoundsandTariffCut

NegotiatingRoundDateParticipantsTariffCut(%)Geneva19472321Annecy1949332Torquay1951383Geneva1956264DillonRound60-61262KennedyRound64-676235TokyoRound73-799933UruguayRound86-93125343/9/202367Table:UruguayRoundTariffCutonIndustrialProductsbySelectedCountries

CountryAverageTariffRate(%)Pre-UruguayRoundPost-UruguayRoundIndustrialcountries6.03.6Australia20.112.2Canada9.04.8EU5.73.6Japan3.91.7U.S.5.43.5Argentina38.230.9Brazil40.727.0India71.432.4Korea18.08.33/9/202368Table:USTariffHistory:averagetariffratesTariffLawsandDatesAverageTariffRate(%)TariffLawsandDatesAverageTariffRate(%)MacKinleyLaw(1890/10/06)48.41930-193943.6WilsonLaw(1894/08/28)41.31940-194924.1DingleyLaw(1897/07/24)46.51950-195912.0Payne-AldrichLaw(1909/08/06/40.81960-196911.8UnderwoodLaw(1913/10/04)27.01970-19797.4Fordney-McCumberLaw(1922/09/22)38.51980-19895.3Smoot-HawleyLaw(1930/06/18)53.019955.43/9/202369Table:ChinaTariffHistoryDateAverageRateDateAverageRateBefore199243.2%2001/01/0115.61992/01/0139.92002/01/0112.0End199236.42003/01/0111.0End199335.92004/01/0110.41995.335.62005/01/019.91996/04/01232006/01/019.91997/04/01172007/01/019.81999/01/0116.52008/01/019.83/9/202370Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization(2)FinancialinternationalizationRemovalofcapitalcontrolsCreationoffinancialinstrumentsTechnologicaladvancesincommunicationFinancialinternationalizationLargetradevolumecloseeconomiclinkageBorrowedinvestmentcomplexityandinstabilityofDerivativesofinternationalfinanceFinancialcrises

3/9/202371Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization(3)FDIandMNCs:productioninternationalizationA.IncreaseofMNCsB.IncreaseofFDI(see:textbookp.23figure1.2)C.HighconcentrationofFDID.MNCs:thedeterminantofworldeconomycontroloftradecontroloftechnologycontrolofFDItransfer

Inequalityofsocialandrace-to-the-bottomeconomicbenefitscapitalgains,laborlosesenvironmentaldumping3/9/202372Figure:FDIInflow1980-20083/9/202373Table:GlobalMNCsandTheirBranchesYearNumberofMNC(10thousand)OverseassubsidiariesandBranches(10thousand)1970s1.0approximate4.0approximate19831.3n.a.19923.72019944.0approximate2519964.427.719986.050.0+19996.370.0+20006.0+80.0+20046.190.0+3/9/202374Table:FDI区位格局

（十亿美圆，%）国家和地区流入流出金额比重金额比重19982003199820031998200319982003发达国家47336768666325709293发展中国家1941722830533686中、东欧2421442701全球6915601001006876131001003/9/202375Table:ShareoftheLargestRecipientsofFDIamongDevelopingCountries,1985-2000(%)EconomyAverage83-85EconomyAverage98-00SaudiArabia20.4China19.2Mexico11.3HongKong16.0Brazil9.2Brazil14.4China7.0Argentina6.5Singapore6.9Mexico5.6Malaysia5.5Korea4.0Egypt4.7Singapore3.1Bermuda4.6Bermuda2.8HongKong2.3Chile2.7Argentina2.7CaymanIslands2.4Top10Total76.6Top10Total76.73/9/202376Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization5.Thenegativesideofglobalization(1)IntensificationofglobalcompetitionCompetitionbetweenhi-wageandlow-wageeconomiesDeindustrializationinadvancedeconomiesUnemploymentandincomeinequalityinadvancedeconomiessentimentagainstdevelopingcountriesProtectionismandregionalism3/9/202377Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization(2)ProductiveovercapacityrisingofNICsovercapacityinmanufacturingoversupply/underconsumptionindustrialadjustmentunemploymentorlowerpayKrugman’sview:JapaneseandGermananti-inflationarypoliciesinsufficientmoneysupplyoversupply/underconsumption3/9/202378Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalization6.Thecontroversyoftheroleofeconomicfactors(1)ThesimilarityofthetwoschoolsBothadmitthateconomicinterestisthefirstpriorityininternationalaffairs.(2)ThedifferenceA.Schoolofthemarket-orientedposition:emphasisonmarketforceandcooperation.a.Inthe21stcenturyfreemarketsandeconomicforceswillincreasinglydetermineeconomicaffairs.b.Theworldismovingtowardapoliticallyborderlessandhighlyinterdependentglobaleconomy.c.Americaneconomicandpoliticalsystemhasbecomethemodelfortheworld.3/9/202379Chapter1:III.EconomicGlobalizationB.Schooloftherevisionistposition:emphasisonthestateandeconomicconflicta.Theworldischaracterizedbyintenseeconomicconflictatboththedomesticandinternationallevels.b.Theclashbetweencommunismandcapitalismhasbeenreplacedbyconflictamongrivalformsofcapitalismandsocialsystemrepresentedinregionaleconomicblocs.3/9/202380Chapter1:IV.Technology,theInformationEconomy,andServices1.Technologicalrevolutions(1)Thefirsttechnologicalrevolution:mid-18thcenturyinUKTheageofformationoflaissezfairecapitalism