银行业投资观察：贝塔弹性主导近期板块表现

目录索引一、期察：A股整体落，H股行于A股 6二、资议贝弹主导期块现 6三、块现银板回落周换率升 四、股现：A股整体落城行对健 16五、债现本银转债均格涨0.06% 24六、利测踪：25利润速致期本变 27七、险示 31图表索引图1：行块市数表现 7图2：行块现盘 7图3：板超收盘 8图4：板绝收况 8图5：2025Q3末募金持仓北持仓VS市场跌（%） 9图6：母利润TTM比增（新得）VS期市涨幅（%） 9图7：2024Q4末募金持仓北持仓VS以来场跌（%） 10图8：母利润TTM比增（新得）VS初以市涨幅（%） 10图9：行块、 全A非融油化表现 图10：行块、 全A非融油化换手（） 12图市率银行 15图12：对盈：/ 全A金石化 15图13：净：行 15图14：对净：/ 全A金石化 15图15：息：行 15图16：对息：/ 全A金石化 15图17：行债对与相收（） 25图18：行债银块、转指累收率 25图19：行债性一览至2025年1月16日） 26图20：行债位一览至2025年1月16日） 26图21：有行利速预（2025E） 29图22：有行收预测（2025E） 29图23：有行利速预（2025E） 29图24：有行收预测（2025E） 29图25：份净润预测（2025E） 30图26：份营增测（2025E） 30图27：商净润预测（2025E） 30图28：商营增测（2025E） 30图29：商净润预测（2025E） 30图30：商营增测（2025E） 30TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u表1：信级业涨跌情（） 13表2：信级业换手情（） 14表3：市行间幅情（） 17表4：市行间率情（） 19表5：市行对/相估值股率所分情况 21表6：A+H上银行AH溢价及处位况 23表7：行债键一览 24表8：行债间幅情（） 25表9：行债间率情（） 25表10：A上银净润增预跟（2025E） 27表股市行增速测踪（2025E） 28一、本期观察：A股银行整体回落，H股银行优于A股本期观察区间：2026/1/12-2026/1/16本数源于 据。（图（2026/1/12-2026/1/16）全A上涨0.5%，（25A-1.92%-2.24%。恒生综合指数上涨2.6%，H股银行涨幅2.4%，跑输恒生综合指数，跑赢A股银行。个股表现方面（表3-6）： 数据显示A股银行涨幅靠前为宁波银行上涨4.09%，跌幅三北京行跌4.90%、夏行下4.73%、浦银下跌4.33%。H股银行幅前工银上涨3.59%设行幅三中大银行下跌6.14%、庆下跌3.10%招银跌3.09%。银行转债方（图72表79） 数显本银行债均格涨，百点券面涨前为重转（+0.58%）兴业转债（+0.18%）、常银转债（+0.02%），跌幅靠前为上银转债（-0.45%）。盈利预期方面（图21-30，表10-11）：本期共3家银行25年业绩增速一致预期有变化（A25-0.08pct、-0.03pct。二、投资建议：贝塔弹性主导近期板块表现近期银行板块相对收益和绝对收益都较弱，主要原因是市场春季躁动资金向高弹性品种和中小市值流动，银行板块弱弹性品种资金被分流。另外，我们1月4号在报告-20260104四季度基数及债券投资收益减少，市场需要消化年报的平淡预期，考虑实体行业ROIC考虑到近期板块再次下跌，消化了一定的上述相对业绩预期，二次筑底也夯实了板块估值，另外监管层近期对市场的表达也有望分流部分资金至大盘蓝筹，总体看板块继续下行空间有限。图1：银行板块和市场指数表现绝对收益行情区间表现(4.01-1.16)36.5%38.8%36.5%38.8%20.7%12.3%7.7%9.6%-0.5%40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%，注：银行指数为 行业指数:银行，国有行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行图2：银行板块表现复盘10.8发革委宣布加力推出一12.3112月制造业PMI连续4.2美国关税政策落地

美国关税政策落地，中国进行反制30.0%

揽子增量政策

三个月稳定在扩张区间4.25政治局会议:加紧实施更加积极有为25.0%

10.12财政部加力支持地方化债，发行特别国债支持国有大行补充核心一级资本

的宏观政策，适时降准降息7.15上半年GDP为66.05万亿元，同比+5.3%20.0%

10.17住建部稳地产政策“组合拳”

1.3央行货币政策委员会24Q4例会提出.7

11.1310月社融公布，存款搬家继续15.0%

10.18金融街论坛潘行长阐述核心政策思路10.2110

1.10央行决定阶段性暂停在公开市场买入国债1.1412月社融增速超预期

8.137月社融数据回升9.3举办抗战胜利80周年阅兵仪式10.0%

月LPR下调25bp10.3110月PMI超季节性好转

8.4对购买国债等债务取得利息收入征收增值税

10.28上证指数突破4000点12.1211月社融公布10.159月社融微降1.9元旦假期后上证指数高1.15

9.18美联储宣布降息25bp涨，突破4100点11.6特朗普胜选

共同推动跨境支付通

9.23央行召开三季度货币政策例会5.0%

12.9中共中央政治局指出明年实施更加积

6.183.60.0%

极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策

正货币政策预期

与高质量发展”12.2央行宣布25年1月起3.5人大开幕，GDP目标5%，赤5.5习主席同特朗普通电话-5.0%

启用新M1统计口径11.29非银同业活期存款利

字率拟按4%左右安排2.17

5.201年及5年LPR均下调10BP，六大行下调存款挂牌利率11.8美联储降息25bp；人大常

习总书记出席民营企业座谈会率纳入自律管理2.141月社融增速超预期，开门红表现亮眼

5.144月信贷增速较弱.501.22六部门印发中长期资金入市方案

5.12中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布-15.0%

相对收益 银行(申万)；注：银行指数为 行业指数:银行图3：分板块超额收益复盘80.0%1月-5月：农商行(相对)5月-8月： 银行(80.0%1月-5月：农商行(相对)5月-8月： 银行(申万)高利润增速银行(相对)月月月： 月年月：月：70.0% -银行板块普涨 -大行防御-板块-相对收益减弱-复苏行情 -银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨价值再现 回调-区域行表现较好 -优质区域行领涨60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图4：分板块绝对收益情况国有大行(绝) 股份行(绝对) 城商行(绝对)90.0%80.0%1月-5月：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨5月-8月：月月90.0%80.0%1月-5月：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨5月-8月：月月月： 月年月：-大行防御-板块-相对收益减弱-复苏行情价值再现回调-区域行表现较好4月-：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图5：2025Q3末公募基金持仓+北向持仓VS本期市场涨跌幅（%）宁波5.00宁波4.00厦门贵阳厦门贵阳中信工商2.00工商苏农中国本期涨跌幅（%苏农中国本期涨跌幅（%）交通张家港齐鲁青岛北京交通张家港齐鲁青岛北京渝农招商江苏长沙兴业南京银行江阴上海重庆光大邮储业建设安民生常熟10杭州864瑞丰青农2紫金1614120苏州-1.00无锡 兰州苏州成都-2.00 郑州 浙商 农成都沪农-3.00沪农西安 浦发西安 浦发华夏-5.00华夏-6.00

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2025Q3）图6：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS本期市场涨跌幅（%）6.00中信宁波中信宁波农业重庆张家港瑞丰苏农厦门工商 建设瑞丰苏农厦门工商 建设邮储本期涨跌幅（%）交通光大0.00-10-2 -10

紫金贵阳 浙商

0 10兰州 青

杭州20常熟

30 40银行沪农民生-2.00无锡银行沪农民生平安兴业招商长沙招商长沙北京华夏

中国 苏州 成都 郑州青岛浦发齐鲁江阴江苏南京青岛浦发齐鲁江阴江苏南京西安-6.00

归母净利润TTM同比增速(最新）图7：2024Q4末公募基金持仓+北向持仓VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）0505江阴成都江苏苏农北京兴业长沙上海交通浦发南京华夏农业招商瑞丰齐鲁青岛沪农中国建设张家港重庆浙商光大工商邮储764渝农贵阳常熟 3厦门 民生西安无锡兰州青农2中信1郑州平安杭州紫金苏州宁波422026年以来涨跌幅（2026年以来涨跌幅（%）-2-4-6-8-10-12-14

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2025Q4）图8：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）常熟0常熟0西安101520253035郑州40建设光大浦发南京中国工商农业青岛齐鲁重庆上海瑞丰长沙银行招商江阴江苏成都苏州张家港邮储5杭州青农交通兰州苏农宁波厦门北京422026年以来涨跌幅（2026年以来涨跌幅（%）-2-4-6-8-10-12-14

归母净利润TTM同比增速(最新）三、板块表现：银行板块回落，周度换手率上升涨跌幅本（信级行业板整下2.60%，在30个中信一级行业第25，跑输 A（金融、石油石化）指数约3.51个百分点。（0.29个百分点，在3030。2026年01月16（）0.67X（/A（指数为在历史平均水平。图9：银行板块、 全A非金融石油石化指数现16.00%

全A非融、油石化 银行（轴）

12周期12周期移动平均( 全A非金、石石化)12周期移动平均(银行（右轴）)433221.61%110014.00% .50%12.00% .00%10.00% .50%8.00% .00%6.00% .50%4.00% .00%2.00% .50%0.00% .00%图10：银行板块、 全A非金融石油石化区换手率（周）15,000

全A非融、油石化 银行 银行/ 全A非融、油石（右）

2.0013,000 1.8011,000 1.609,000 1.407,000 1.205,000 1.003,000 0.802026/1/162026/1/92026/1/22025/12/262025/12/192025/12/122026/1/162026/1/92026/1/22025/12/262025/12/192025/12/122025/12/5年初以来计算机4.31%8.42%0.80%2.89%-1.58%-0.59%-1.52%13.10%电子3.64%7.39%-0.19%4.71%-3.02%2.51%1.17%11.29%传媒3.34%13.55%2.27%-0.11%-0.19%0.10%-3.59%17.34%有色金属3.03%8.66%0.38%6.45%1.23%-0.55%5.07%11.95%机械1.36%5.72%1.00%4.53%-1.71%1.33%2.12%7.16%基础化工1.27%5.39%-0.88%5.41%1.49%-1.22%-0.47%6.73%通信0.77%1.61%-1.15%4.56%-0.61%5.92%3.69%2.39%汽车0.71%2.73%1.49%2.66%0.13%0.09%1.27%3.46%电力设备及新能源0.36%4.96%-1.91%4.10%-3.09%1.34%1.35%5.35%建筑0.06%5.32%-0.51%1.58%0.20%-2.11%-0.04%5.39%家电-0.10%2.19%0.69%0.44%0.16%-1.95%1.73%2.08%商贸零售-0.16%4.43%-3.13%-1.31%6.58%-0.14%-1.45%4.26%电力及公用事业-0.25%2.40%-2.35%0.67%-0.34%-0.29%0.01%2.15%石油石化-0.40%0.17%3.92%3.61%1.91%-3.43%1.86%-0.24%建材-0.48%4.00%-1.25%5.04%-0.04%-1.55%1.54%3.49%医药-0.72%7.70%-2.02%-0.19%-0.11%-1.10%-0.73%6.92%纺织服装-0.85%2.89%0.55%0.46%2.23%-2.68%-1.60%2.01%消费者服务-0.99%2.54%0.59%1.80%4.40%-1.30%-0.39%1.52%轻工制造-1.04%3.47%-0.59%1.74%1.85%-1.11%1.26%2.39%交通运输-1.17%-0.03%-0.68%1.30%2.03%-1.49%1.24%-1.21%钢铁-1.62%3.35%-0.55%3.42%1.93%-2.53%0.54%1.67%综合-1.76%3.17%-0.72%0.75%0.06%-1.00%0.50%1.35%食品饮料-2.03%2.14%-2.28%-0.57%2.01%-1.63%-1.88%0.07%综合金融-2.38%2.48%5.13%3.88%2.26%-2.45%-0.44%0.04%银行-2.60%-1.88%0.99%-0.89%1.23%-1.58%-1.09%-4.42%非银行金融-2.76%2.77%-1.93%1.97%2.99%0.83%2.33%-0.06%房地产-3.28%5.84%-0.68%1.19%-0.26%-2.62%-2.13%2.36%煤炭-3.34%6.26%-0.74%-0.89%0.60%-3.80%0.77%2.72%农林牧渔-3.49%0.99%0.20%0.33%1.12%0.12%-1.53%-2.54%国防军工-5.66%14.56%3.83%6.39%2.41%3.57%3.47%8.08%表2：中信一级行业区间换手率情况（周）2026/1/162026/1/92026/1/22025/12/262025/12/192025/12/122025/12/5年初以来传媒42.13%29.71%10.31%11.75%13.07%14.95%16.35%71.84%计算机40.66%25.77%10.70%14.56%15.07%17.29%17.31%66.43%国防军工38.98%41.93%19.95%29.51%27.51%26.64%22.39%80.91%消费者服务32.90%19.35%9.53%17.83%17.79%15.21%14.69%52.25%电力设备及新能源26.22%21.64%9.88%16.05%15.40%15.25%11.61%47.86%综合金融24.79%21.51%11.86%13.40%10.57%8.78%7.98%46.30%商贸零售22.28%16.56%9.84%22.08%25.75%19.98%13.80%38.84%电子21.85%19.17%7.99%13.00%12.39%16.24%15.64%41.02%有色金属21.39%19.27%10.07%14.53%11.38%13.40%13.60%40.66%机械19.66%18.08%8.63%13.21%11.97%14.04%12.15%37.75%轻工制造19.05%17.43%10.45%19.44%16.57%19.89%17.69%36.48%汽车18.85%17.04%8.99%14.00%11.09%10.15%10.39%35.89%基础化工18.75%17.46%8.10%12.80%11.32%11.24%11.89%36.21%医药17.53%11.77%4.48%8.52%8.95%9.83%9.50%29.31%通信16.31%13.56%6.33%11.42%10.48%10.55%9.07%29.87%家电15.98%11.79%5.89%9.78%8.46%9.39%8.54%27.77%综合15.71%14.58%9.78%14.12%13.32%14.88%13.10%30.29%建材15.42%13.02%7.36%10.76%9.71%12.05%10.93%28.43%农林牧渔14.87%14.09%8.82%15.69%16.10%17.08%16.13%28.95%纺织服装14.17%13.33%8.06%11.33%12.13%13.81%12.62%27.50%房地产12.91%13.02%6.08%8.90%9.45%12.56%11.79%25.93%建筑11.22%7.43%3.64%5.48%5.49%6.43%6.39%18.65%钢铁10.80%8.74%3.33%5.76%5.76%5.45%5.50%19.54%食品饮料8.82%7.62%4.06%9.00%10.93%9.46%8.32%16.45%煤炭8.23%10.64%3.01%4.88%6.07%6.91%9.13%18.88%非银行金融7.98%7.08%2.21%3.80%4.23%4.92%3.83%15.06%电力及公用事业7.51%5.41%3.12%4.47%4.96%5.22%5.01%12.92%交通运输5.15%4.62%2.85%5.73%3.90%4.27%4.04%9.77%石油石化3.87%3.60%1.73%2.10%1.70%1.81%1.85%7.47%银行1.61%1.32%0.67%0.93%1.19%1.40%1.34%2.93%图11：市盈率：银行 图12：相对市盈率：银/ 全A非金融石油石化 均值 均值+1倍标差

均值 均值+1倍标差 均值-1倍标准差 99%分位 均值-1倍标准差 99%分位 1%分位9.00 1%分位8.00 7.00

0.400.350.306.005.004.003.00

0.25 0.150.10 图13：市净率：银行 图14：相对市净率：银/ 全A非金融石油石化 均值 均值+1倍标差 均值 均值+1倍标差 均值-1倍标准差 99%分位1.10 0.451.000.401.10 0.451.000.400.900.350.800.300.700.600.250.20

均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位0.50 0.500.40

0.15图15：股息率：银行 图16：相对股息率：银行/ 全A非金融石油石化 均值 均值+1倍标差 均值 均值+1倍标差

均值-1倍标准差 99%分位 均值-1倍标准差 99%分位 1% 6.50%5.50%4.50%3.50%2.50%1.50%

6.50 4.503.502.501.50四、个股表现：A股银行整体回落，城商行相对稳健+4.09%-1.92%-2.24%，城商行相对稳健。换手率：本期个股换手率靠前的为江阴银行8.00%、郑州银行7.62%、青岛银行7.34%周换手0.81%2.60%4.44%农商行整体交易活跃度更高。7.46X5.89X5.60X0.72X0.56X0.64X、1.080.860.81（LF）分别为1.07、0.83、0.96、0.88。2026/1/162026/1/162026/1/92026/1/22025/12/262025/12/192025/12/122025/12/5年初以来宁波银行4.09%0.21%0.32%-2.64%4.87%-1.81%-0.49%4.31%杭州银行-0.45%1.05%0.20%-2.62%3.57%-3.14%0.13%0.59%紫金银行-0.72%0.36%0.00%-0.36%1.84%-2.86%1.08%-0.36%常熟银行-0.85%-0.14%-0.28%-2.49%2.99%-1.13%-0.28%-0.99%青农商行-0.97%0.00%-0.96%-0.95%0.96%-2.19%1.91%-0.97%无锡银行-1.19%-0.67%0.00%-1.82%2.03%-2.95%0.83%-1.85%建设银行-1.21%-2.37%2.09%-0.87%3.27%-2.61%-3.62%-3.56%瑞丰银行-1.28%-3.68%0.18%3.27%3.38%-3.44%0.00%-4.91%兰州银行-1.28%0.86%-0.43%0.00%0.43%-2.11%0.42%-0.43%工商银行-1.30%-2.77%1.54%-0.89%0.64%-0.25%-1.48%-4.04%贵阳银行-1.54%-0.17%-0.51%-1.83%1.69%-1.50%0.00%-1.70%郑州银行-1.55%0.52%-1.03%-0.51%1.03%-3.00%0.00%-1.04%民生银行-1.57%-0.26%-0.78%-1.28%0.26%-2.74%-1.96%-1.83%苏农银行-1.59%-0.20%-0.98%-1.54%1.37%-1.54%-0.19%-1.78%苏州银行-1.60%-1.81%-0.72%-1.18%4.19%-0.98%-0.12%-3.38%中国银行-1.64%-4.19%2.14%-0.88%1.25%-1.91%-4.28%-5.76%浙商银行-1.65%-0.33%-0.33%-0.65%1.32%-0.66%-0.65%-1.97%成都银行-2.23%0.00%-1.53%-1.62%1.77%-3.54%0.47%-2.23%平安银行-2.36%0.44%-1.13%-0.69%2.38%-1.56%-0.69%-1.93%西安银行-2.41%0.81%-1.07%-1.84%2.42%-1.85%-1.04%-1.62%邮储银行-2.45%-0.55%0.93%-0.37%0.18%-2.70%-2.11%-2.99%重庆银行-2.49%-1.97%-0.18%-2.43%2.58%-1.36%-1.87%-4.41%江阴银行-2.63%0.00%-1.72%-1.48%2.61%-3.56%1.02%-2.63%张家港行-2.64%-0.66%-0.44%-1.50%-0.85%-0.42%3.96%-3.28%农业银行-2.70%-3.52%2.26%-0.53%-0.66%-1.28%-2.74%-6.12%交通银行-2.83%-2.48%0.42%-0.67%1.09%-0.94%-2.24%-5.24%沪农商行-2.88%-2.80%2.65%-1.74%-1.39%-0.74%-0.11%-5.60%光大银行-2.90%-1.15%-0.57%-1.40%1.71%-0.57%-2.49%-4.01%江苏银行-3.14%0.00%1.56%-2.48%1.06%-1.14%-1.96%-3.14%渝农商行-3.35%1.70%1.89%-2.46%2.85%-3.22%0.46%-1.70%南京银行-3.51%-5.25%1.87%-1.67%0.44%-1.13%-0.69%-8.57%兴业银行-3.65%-1.04%-0.38%0.24%2.13%-0.72%-1.47%-4.65%长沙银行-3.69%-2.16%-0.10%-0.10%2.53%-0.63%-1.04%-5.77%招商银行-3.83%-1.90%0.96%-0.69%0.60%-3.94%1.16%-5.65%青岛银行-4.06%-1.12%-1.32%-1.73%0.87%-3.58%-1.86%-5.13%齐鲁银行-4.09%-1.92%2.68%-2.44%1.78%-4.58%-0.34%-5.92%浦发银行-4.33%-7.23%6.14%0.26%0.69%3.11%-1.92%-11.25%华夏银行-4.73%-1.46%0.73%-0.44%1.03%-1.02%-1.15%-6.11%北京银行-4.90%0.55%-0.18%-1.08%0.54%-1.25%-1.58%-4.38%工商银行H3.59%-3.31%3.43%0.16%-0.33%-3.00%0.78%0.95%表3：上市银行区间涨跌幅情况（周）建设银行H3.16%-2.69%3.17%0.93%-1.96%-4.26%0.19%1.82%交通银行H3.12%-2.13%2.50%-1.69%-6.14%-1.11%0.84%2.64%中国银行H2.51%-3.09%2.26%0.23%0.00%-2.86%-0.21%0.90%江西银行H1.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-2.90%0.00%1.49%农业银行H0.54%-5.15%3.92%2.19%-1.08%-2.12%-0.50%-3.81%邮储银行H0.40%-3.62%1.46%0.19%0.95%-2.42%-2.18%-2.01%广州农商银行H0.00%-0.66%-1.30%-4.35%5.23%-1.29%-4.91%-0.66%浙商银行H-0.80%-1.19%-0.39%-0.39%-0.78%-0.77%-1.15%-1.59%郑州银行H-0.87%0.00%-1.71%-0.85%-0.84%-3.25%4.24%-0.87%渤海银行H-1.10%-6.19%3.19%2.17%-3.16%-2.06%0.00%-5.26%青岛银行H-1.56%0.52%-1.29%-1.02%2.36%-4.74%1.01%-1.56%重庆农村商业银行H-2.51%-0.17%1.14%-0.16%3.18%-7.73%3.03%-1.57%民生银行H-2.59%-2.77%0.76%-2.72%-0.98%-4.22%-1.84%-4.33%招商银行H-3.09%-6.35%3.78%1.08%-0.39%-4.56%2.68%-7.95%重庆银行H-3.10%-2.52%-0.38%-0.62%2.04%-4.27%1.25%-4.59%中国光大银行H-6.14%-2.19%-0.54%-0.81%1.37%1.95%-5.53%-7.69%表4：上市银行区间换手率情况（周）2026/1/162026/1/92026/1/22025/12/262025/12/192025/12/122025/12/5年初以来江阴银行8.00%6.85%5.17%4.88%5.55%6.87%8.45%14.85%郑州银行7.62%4.97%2.12%3.03%4.71%6.35%7.18%12.59%青岛银行7.34%6.31%3.43%3.49%4.18%5.22%6.02%13.65%兰州银行6.95%4.90%1.93%3.84%4.92%5.52%5.55%11.86%苏农银行6.02%5.17%3.03%4.30%4.88%6.23%7.73%11.20%紫金银行5.99%3.66%2.01%3.21%4.05%4.97%4.32%9.65%建设银行5.80%5.23%2.45%3.29%4.94%5.53%4.35%11.03%常熟银行5.78%5.45%2.21%4.28%5.74%6.56%6.21%11.24%张家港行5.67%5.68%3.79%4.85%7.43%13.43%12.29%11.35%北京银行5.53%2.90%1.32%2.24%3.40%2.93%4.46%8.43%瑞丰银行5.45%5.17%3.91%4.74%3.48%3.90%4.27%10.62%杭州银行5.21%4.26%1.57%2.54%2.98%3.22%2.59%9.47%青农商行4.95%4.09%1.67%2.33%3.16%3.88%5.74%9.04%民生银行4.93%3.47%1.98%4.12%3.99%4.67%5.39%8.40%齐鲁银行4.90%3.98%3.47%4.31%3.70%6.71%5.73%8.89%苏州银行4.72%3.99%2.06%3.24%4.56%3.54%3.98%8.71%成都银行4.45%4.21%2.35%2.03%3.18%3.63%3.16%8.66%贵阳银行4.42%3.62%2.17%3.50%3.03%3.20%4.20%8.04%渝农商行4.15%4.62%2.22%2.24%3.62%3.90%2.79%8.77%江苏银行4.04%3.39%1.78%2.74%3.26%3.45%3.95%7.43%南京银行3.52%4.00%1.07%1.34%1.55%2.25%1.83%7.52%无锡银行3.48%3.95%1.81%2.88%3.18%3.49%4.06%7.44%西安银行3.44%1.88%1.22%1.75%2.88%3.15%3.16%5.32%宁波银行3.43%2.93%0.88%1.53%1.67%1.67%1.33%6.37%招商银行3.40%2.30%1.00%1.30%1.50%1.79%1.14%5.70%交通银行3.11%2.36%1.40%2.22%2.27%2.54%2.80%5.47%重庆银行2.95%3.18%1.59%2.22%1.98%2.90%3.13%6.13%华夏银行2.83%1.67%0.80%1.05%1.58%1.80%2.23%4.50%光大银行2.75%2.10%1.12%1.64%2.25%2.28%2.50%4.85%平安银行2.68%2.70%0.94%1.49%1.92%2.45%2.33%5.37%兴业银行2.57%1.73%0.92%1.24%1.45%1.73%1.43%4.30%浙商银行2.55%1.59%1.03%1.65%3.98%4.11%3.96%4.14%长沙银行2.26%2.22%0.89%1.54%1.99%2.52%2.42%4.48%浦发银行1.33%1.31%0.73%0.65%1.19%1.42%0.86%2.64%沪农商行1.33%1.34%0.58%0.83%1.14%1.72%1.15%2.67%邮储银行1.24%1.08%0.59%0.84%0.93%1.01%1.00%2.32%中国银行0.71%0.82%0.38%0.47%0.57%0.69%0.69%1.53%工商银行0.62%0.57%0.28%0.32%0.42%0.58%0.41%1.20%农业银行0.61%0.41%0.25%0.31%0.42%0.54%0.35%1.02%重庆农村商业银行H2.30%2.54%1.29%0.67%1.95%2.94%1.80%4.91%中国光大银行HHHHHHH广州农商银行H1.77%1.76%1.85%0.99%0.96% 1.60% 1.47% 1.57%3.71%3.68%3.13%1.66%1.78%2.03%1.11%1.80%2.63%1.55%1.49%1.16%1.13%1.08%1.04%1.27%3.10% 3.91%1.18%0.82%0.36%0.90%1.14% 1.18%2.45%0.71%0.43%0.18%0.67%1.83% 1.77% 1.81%1.38%1.10%0.49%1.06% 1.12% 1.03%2.56%0.84%0.78%0.74%0.51% 0.29%0.19%0.17%0.63% 0.66% 0.70%1.38%1.28%0.47%0.34%1.18% 1.29%1.03%0.68%0.55%0.28%0.79% 0.82% 0.77%1.48%1.41%0.57%0.55%0.53%0.82%0.34%0.09%0.43% 0.53%0.43% 0.57%0.61%0.33% 0.23%0.77% 0.90%0.48%0.36%0.19%0.25%0.68% 0.63% 0.53%1.07%0.32%0.33%0.28%0.68%0.55%0.49% 0.35%0.68%0.83%0.27%0.14%0.00%0.45%1.12%0.08%0.06%0.28% 0.19%0.20%0.28%0.22%0.51%0.22%0.42%0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%单家银行（PE单家银行（PE、PB单位：倍） 单家银行/银行板块（PE、PB单位：倍）PE所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位PETTM所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位工商银行7.4089.20%0.7248.90%4.02%89.20%1.0799.00%1.0792.30%0.852.30%建设银行6.9478.80%0.6935.90%3.12%78.80%1.0153.30%1.0343.20%0.667.80%农业银行8.7496.60%0.9491.00%3.40%96.60%1.2796.60%1.3996.70%0.725.20%中国银行7.2693.50%0.6650.00%4.02%93.50%1.0579.40%0.9873.50%0.858.00%邮储银行7.1273.60%0.6217.10%4.12%73.60%1.0334.20%0.9224.20%0.8754.20%交通银行6.4077.20%0.5439.60%4.38%77.20%0.9366.10%0.8055.00%0.937.80%招商银行6.5519.20%0.929.10%7.78%19.20%0.950.20%1.360.50%1.6499.90%兴业银行5.5045.50%0.5215.90%5.28%45.50%0.8014.70%0.782.60%1.1173.40%浦发银行7.3592.50%0.5035.90%3.37%92.50%1.0778.20%0.7446.20%0.7133.70%民生银行5.4259.40%0.291.60%5.27%59.40%0.7929.10%0.441.40%1.1147.30%光大银行4.9132.90%0.403.60%5.64%32.90%0.713.30%0.591.90%1.1962.90%平安银行5.0419.90%0.494.50%5.34%19.90%0.734.00%0.733.30%1.1382.80%华夏银行3.7823.30%0.335.60%6.28%23.30%0.551.30%0.490.60%1.3294.00%浙商银行5.8759.70%0.4618.40%5.23%59.70%0.8534.40%0.6926.20%1.1072.30%北京银行4.2223.70%0.406.50%6.11%23.70%0.610.60%0.590.10%1.2958.10%江苏银行5.2440.60%0.7243.40%5.59%40.60%0.762.30%1.0743.50%1.1877.20%宁波银行6.7021.30%0.9019.20%4.10%21.30%0.9714.00%1.3317.00%0.8699.60%南京银行6.0039.60%0.7212.20%4.74%39.60%0.8710.10%1.084.50%1.0041.90%杭州银行5.8622.70%0.8629.50%4.29%22.70%0.859.80%1.2739.60%0.9189.80%成都银行5.0222.50%0.797.90%5.65%22.50%0.731.60%1.1719.30%1.1992.30%长沙银行4.4824.60%0.5317.10%6.78%24.60%0.658.60%0.7811.20%1.4396.90%重庆银行6.3658.70%0.6562.40%4.09%58.70%0.9242.40%0.9756.10%0.8654.50%贵阳银行4.1337.00%0.332.40%5.03%37.00%0.603.30%0.503.00%1.0689.00%郑州银行9.0956.30%0.384.70%1.05%56.30%1.3231.30%0.5611.30%0.2269.20%青岛银行5.154.20%0.6218.50%3.76%4.20%0.7510.70%0.9313.40%0.7939.90%苏州银行6.6733.20%0.7336.30%5.12%33.20%0.9723.60%1.0825.20%1.0891.40%齐鲁银行6.0360.30%0.6942.50%3.88%60.30%0.8846.00%1.0345.10%0.8280.90%兰州银行6.936.10%0.431.80%4.37%6.10%1.0152.60%0.6453.50%0.9287.40%西安银行6.0720.30%0.475.80%2.75%20.30%0.8813.90%0.7015.70%0.5838.00%渝农商行6.0674.70%0.5568.20%4.80%74.70%0.8849.30%0.8172.40%1.0140.70%沪农商行6.8478.00%0.6771.40%4.95%78.00%0.9957.40%1.0066.00%1.0477.10%青农商行5.7419.10%0.4611.20%3.91%19.10%0.8316.00%0.6816.90%0.8281.90%常熟银行5.511.60%0.783.50%5.41%1.60%0.803.20%1.163.70%1.1496.30%紫金银行6.8247.80%0.502.60%3.64%47.80%0.9922.90%0.7414.50%0.7787.20%无锡银行5.5117.90%0.583.00%5.67%17.90%0.803.50%0.864.30%1.2098.40%张家港行5.5017.50%0.606.40%6.79%17.50%0.804.80%0.897.70%1.4397.40%苏农银行4.9413.00%0.548.80%5.11%13.00%0.723.00%0.803.50%1.0896.40%江阴银行5.019.90%0.5812.00%6.74%9.90%0.731.30%0.863.00%1.4298.70%表5：上市银行绝对/相对估值、股息率及所处分位情况瑞丰银行5.308.80%0.558.40%3.69%8.80%0.7745.50%0.8248.40%0.7894.30%工商银行H5.8779.80%0.5447.80%5.29%79.80%0.8575.30%0.8070.30%1.123.70%建设银行H5.6775.80%0.5441.20%5.45%75.80%0.8274.20%0.8168.50%1.157.90%农业银行H6.6094.80%0.6564.20%4.84%94.80%0.9697.90%0.9698.10%1.025.20%中国银行H5.9287.60%0.5053.10%5.59%87.60%0.8695.00%0.7487.50%1.189.50%邮储银行H6.8972.30%0.5522.30%5.08%72.30%1.0052.90%0.8223.10%1.0746.00%交通银行H6.1194.10%0.4750.50%5.83%94.10%0.8993.40%0.7075.10%1.238.10%招商银行H7.6340.70%1.0026.50%6.96%40.70%1.1120.50%1.4921.30%1.4799.80%民生银行H5.7790.30%0.2736.50%5.77%90.30%0.8490.80%0.4042.70%1.2218.30%中国光大银行H4.9475.00%0.3536.50%6.45%75.00%0.7275.40%0.5235.90%1.3620.80%浙商银行H4.7930.10%0.3517.40%6.87%30.10%0.7015.60%0.529.60%1.4564.90%渤海银行H3.2817.10%0.144.80%0.00%17.10%0.4833.70%0.2137.50%0.000.00%重庆银行H4.5372.70%0.3845.30%6.04%72.70%0.6689.20%0.5679.30%1.2737.90%郑州银行H6.6181.90%0.2127.00%1.92%81.90%0.9670.10%0.3121.40%0.4167.60%青岛银行H4.4016.80%0.5123.80%4.61%16.80%0.649.20%0.7526.30%0.9726.50%江西银行H5.9332.40%0.094.70%6.12%32.40%0.8633.10%0.149.70%1.2986.50%重庆农村商业银行H5.1881.10%0.4651.20%5.90%81.10%0.7590.30%0.6884.50%1.249.30%注：所处分位指2017年至今表6：A+H上市银行AH溢价率及所处分位情况所处分位2026/1/162026/1/92026/1/22025/12/262025/12/192025/12/122025/12/5年初交通银行75.50%33.34%39.79%38.48%40.80%42.00%42.99%38.85%39.58%43.80%27.18%32.67%31.72%32.88%35.02%28.04%28.34%33.61%93.40%44.28%48.93%45.85%47.94%51.67%53.23%51.72%47.11%64.30%33.52%38.99%40.04%39.95%41.22%39.32%40.47%42.24%28.80%27.90%13.23%19.05%14.93%12.39%12.78%13.51%13.68%13.42%15.46%22.40%22.36%24.67%25.87%13.72%13.36%24.45%浙商银行1.00%-9.34%-8.47%-12.96%-10.69%-9.29%-10.28%-10.99%-11.72%4.40%3.50%11.26%9.99%6.81%8.27%6.47%5.04%3.31%7.90%14.69%7.11%5.57%5.41%5.83%5.34%7.86%6.15%65.90%33.70%34.71%33.03%32.70%32.77%29.87%29.54%33.56%重庆银行13.50%51.37%50.25%51.20%50.64%53.10%52.12%47.43%52.74%15.80%86.41%87.50%85.81%84.19%83.18%79.58%78.87%85.81%30.90%25.10%28.22%29.84%29.65%30.31%32.07%30.30%29.17%渝农商行9.20%21.19%22.11%14.99%13.93%16.37%16.62%11.02%16.30%注：所处分位指2017年至今五、转债表现：本期银行转债平均价格上涨0.06%1.02+0.58%+0.02%10.28%9.76%2026年01月130.15元，转股溢价率为9.98%，正9.86%。表7：银行转债关键信息一览转债名称纯债溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)平价底价溢价率(%)最新转债价格(元)平价(元)底价(元)触发强赎正股涨幅()最新余额(亿元)已转股比例(%)剩余期限(年)最新转股价格(元)常银转债25.009.9813.66130.15118.34104.129.8659.990.012.665.89重银转债16.1318.99-2.41127.63107.26109.9121.20129.990.012.189.50兴业转债14.6230.12-11.91123.3194.76107.5837.19413.5217.301.9521.19上银转债11.8812.96-0.96127.07112.49113.5815.57199.780.111.028.57青农转债1.1140.87-28.22108.1276.75106.9369.3850.000.010.614.00紫银转债0.8946.02-30.91110.0275.34109.0572.5545.000.010.523.65表8（周）2026/1/162026/1/92026/1/22025/12/262025/12/192025/12/122025/12/5年初以来重银转债0.58%0.26%0.23%-0.49%0.32%-0.13%0.20%0.84%兴业转债0.18%1.94%-1.27%-0.30%-0.23%0.38%-0.32%2.13%常银转债0.02%0.39%-0.12%0.15%0.38%0.00%-0.46%0.41%紫银转债0.00%0.27%-0.08%0.06%-0.19%-0.18%0.00%0.27%青农转债-0.18%0.47%-0.23%-0.05%-0.15%-0.36%0.09%0.29%上银转债-0.45%0.47%0.44%-0.48%0.60%0.13%0.17%0.01%表9（周）2026/1/162026/1/92026/1/22025/12/262025/12/192025/12/122025/12/5年初以来青农转债10.62%14.46%7.31%13.12%8.90%8.41%7.38%25.08%上银转债10.28%8.36%3.89%4.92%4.79%3.38%3.76%18.65%紫银转债9.76%11.59%5.49%9.44%9.31%8.72%6.18%21.35%重银转债8.69%8.03%2.88%6.58%5.94%5.33%5.11%16.71%常银转债8.56%7.09%3.35%6.14%4.88%4.39%6.29%15.64%兴业转债6.26%5.75%3.10%4.40%2.89%2.12%2.13%12.01%图17：银行转债绝对收与相对收益（元） 图18：银行转债、银行块、可转债指数累收益率0.290.280.270.260.250.240.230.220.21

银行转债加权平均价格/中证可转换债券指数银行转债加权平均价格(右轴)

银行转债加权平均价格中证银行指数中证可转换债券指数图19：银行转债债性股性一览（截至2025年1月16日）常银转债青农转债常银转债青农转债转债紫银转债上银兴业转债2520纯债溢价率(%)纯债溢价率(%)10500 5 10

20 25 30 转股溢价率(%)

40 45 50图20：银行转债价位估值一览（截至2025年1月16日）转债转债转债454035转股溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)252015105090 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135最新转债价格(元)六、盈利预测跟踪：25年利润增速一致预期基本不变本期共3家银行25年业绩增速一致预期有变化（招商银行、民生银行、杭州银行）。本期A股银行25年净利润增速、营业收入增速一致预期环比上期分别变动-0.08pct、-0.03pct。250.00pct-0.39pct-0.01pct0.00pct250.00pct-0.14pct-0.01pct0.00pct。较最新财报披环比上期净利润 评级机 最新财报披露露前变动 变动 2026/1/16 2026/1/9 2026/1/2 2025/12/262025/12/19 2025/12/122025E 构家数 同比（较最新财报披环比上期净利润 评级机 最新财报披露露前变动 变动 2026/1/16 2026/1/9 2026/1/2 2025/12/262025/12/19 2025/12/122025E 构家数 同比（PCT） （PCT）工商银行150.520.000.52%-0.40%-0.40%-0.40%-0.40%-0.40%-0.40%建设银行150.260.000.52%0.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%0.81%农业银行15-0.020.003.28%1.11%1.11%1.11%1.11%1.11%1.11%中国银行165.720.001.12%0.66%0.66%0.66%0.66%0.66%0.66%邮储银行22-0.050.001.07%0.62%0.62%0.62%0.62%0.62%0.62%交通银行9-0.350.002.16%0.32%0.32%0.32%0.32%0.32%0.32%招商银行250.24-0.130.44%0.08%0.22%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%兴业银行18-0.140.000.59%-0.43%-0.43%-0.43%-0.43%-0.43%-0.43%浦发银行149.76%6.57% 6.57% 6.57% 6.57% 6.57%民生银行5-3.41-4.10-7.09%-4.21%光大银行13-0.510.00-3.40%-4.19%-4.19% -4.19% -4.19% -4.19% -4.19%平安银行21-0.530.00-3.50%-4.22%-4.22% -4.22% -4.22% -4.22% -4.22%华夏银行40.00-2.31%-10.40%-10.40%-10.40%-10.40%-10.40%-10.40%浙商银行83.150.00-8.76%-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%北京银行14-1.950.000.21%0.27%0.27%0.27%0.27%0.27%0.27%江苏银行204.330.008.87%6.73%6.73%6.73%6.73%6.73%6.73%宁波银行261.070.008.70%6.97%6.97%6.97%7.01%7.01%7.01%南京银行161.010.008.16%6.43%6.43%6.43%6.43%6.43%6.43%杭州银行20-0.82-0.1614.53%14.24%14.40%14.40%14.40%14.40%14.40%成都银行24-1.360.005.02%5.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%长沙银行100.680.004.52%3.65%3.65%3.65%3.65%3.65%3.65%重庆银行1610.880.0010.42%7.75%7.75%7.75%7.75%7.75%7.75%贵阳银行1-1.78%郑州银行00.48%青岛银行114.310.0015.86%15.74%15.74%15.74%15.74%15.74%15.74%苏州银行164.880.007.43%6.39%6.39%6.39%6.38%6.38%6.38%齐鲁银行9-0.460.0016.14%15.62%15.62%15.62%15.62%15.62%15.62%兰州银行00.63%西安银行05.32%渝农商行181.930.003.32%4.64%4.64%4.64%4.64%4.64%4.72%沪农商行152.660.000.93%1.13%1.13%1.13%1.13%1.13%1.13%青农商行03.92%常熟银行317.290.0011.64%12.38%12.38%12.38%12.38%12.38%12.38%紫金银行10.00-10.90%-2.31%-2.31%-2.31%-2.31%-2.31%-2.31%无锡银行41.350.003.71%4.36%4.36%4.36%4.36%4.36%4.36%张家港行4-0.050.005.71%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%苏农银行6-1.080.005.05%4.84%4.84%4.84%4.84%4.84%4.84%江阴银行60.190.0011.71%12.02%12.02%12.02%12.02%12.02%12.02%瑞丰银行110.970.005.50%5.99%5.99%5.99%5.99%5.99%5.99%；注：表中数据为 一致预期预测值营收 评级机较最新财报披露环比上期变动最新财报披露2026/1/16 2026/1/9 2026/1/2 2025/12/262025/12/19营收 评级机较最新财报披露环比上期变动最新财报披露2026/1/16 2026/1/9 2026/1/2 2025