中国全球基建项目中使用的钢铁与水泥绿色化转型 2026 Greening the Steel and Cement Used in Chinas Global Infrastructure Projects

GlobalDevelopmentPolicyCenter

GreeningtheSteeland

CementUsedinChina’s

GlobalInfrastructureProjects

HANJIEWANG,CECILIASPRINGERANDALIHASANBEIGIMARCH2026

SUGGESTEDCITATION

Wang,H.,Springer,C.,andHasanbeigi,A.2026.“GreeningtheSteelandCementUsedinChina’sGlobalInfrastructureProjects.”BostonUniversityGlobalDevelopmentPolicyCenter.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TheauthorswouldliketothankDanleiLiao,SoyoungOh,andLinZhufortheirvaluableinputtothestudyand/ortheirinsightfulcommentsonearlierversionsofthisdocument.

Cover:Shenzhen,China.PhotobyDylannHendricksviaUnsplash.

ABOUTTHEAUTHORS

HanjieWangisaformerGlobalChinaPost-doctoralResearchFellowattheBostonUniversityGlobalDevelopmentPolicyCenter.Sheisapoliticalscientistwithresearchandteachinginterestsininternationalandcomparativepoliticaleconomy,environmentalpoliticsandChinesepolitics.HercurrentworkfocusesonthecomparativeanalysisofelectricvehiclepoliciesinChina,theUSandIndia,alongsidetheunderlyingpoliticsofglobalEVtradeandinvestmentpolicies.Shehasabroadinterestintheroleofgovernmentsinfacilitatinggreentechnologicaltransitionsandintheinteractionsbetweentradeandenvironmentalpolicies.SheearnedherPhDinPoliticalSciencefromtheUniversityofWashington.

CeciliaSpringerisaNon-ResidentFellowwiththeGlobalChinaInitiativeattheBostonUniversityGlobalDevelopmentPolicyCenter.SheisaPrincipalAssociateatSynapseEnergyEconomics.Previously,sheservedastheAssistantDirectoroftheGlobalChinaInitiative.HerinterdisciplinaryresearchfocusesontheenvironmentalimpactsofChina’soverseasinvestment,policymakingprocesseswithinChinaandindustrialdecarbonization.ShewasaPost-doctoralFellowattheHarvardKennedySchoolandearnedherM.S.andPh.D.fromtheEnergyandResourcesGroupattheUniversityofCalifornia,

BerkeleyandaB.S.in

EnvironmentalSciencefromBrownUniversity.

AliHasanbeigiistheFounder,CEOandResearchDirectorofGlobalEfficiencyIntelligence,LLC,whereheleadsconsultingandmarketresearchinitiativesfocusedonindustrialdecarbonization,energysystemsefficiency,industrialelectrification,embodiedcarboninproducts,decarbonizationpoliciesandemergingtechnologies.With20yearsofinternationalexperience,heprovidesstrategicanalysisandtechnicalresearchtodrivethetransitiontowardalow-carbonindustrialfuture.Hisworkhassupportedawiderangeofstakeholders,includinggovernments,industries,nonprofits,academiaandutilitiesacrosstheUSandglobally.

CONTENTS

ExecutiveSummary

7

Introduction

12

SteelProductionandCO2Emissions

14

CementProductionandCO2Emissions

16

RoleofCementandSteelinGlobalInfrastructureProjects

18

China’sGlobalInfrastructureProjectsandDemandforSteelandCement

22

OverviewofChina’sGlobalDevelopmentFinanceandSectorDestinations

22

ClimateImplicationsofChina’sGlobalInfrastructureDevelopment

24

ScaleandSourcesofSteelandCementProcurementinKeyEnergyandTransportProjects

FinancedbyChina

25

EstimatedVolumesofCementandSteelinBRIConstructionProjects

25

RegionalDistributionofMaterialUseacrossCountriesReceivingChinese

DevelopmentFinance

28

SourcesofCementandSteelProcurementforChina’sGlobalInfrastructureProjects

32

TotalCO2EmissionsfromSteelandCementusedinKeyEnergyandTransportationProjects

withChineseDevelopmentFinance

34

Cement

34

Steel

35

PotentialEmissionsReductionfromGreenProcurementofCementandSteelinChina’s

OverseasInfrastructureProjects

36

GreenProcurementforChina’sGlobalDevelopmentFinance:CreatingDemandfor

Low-CarbonCementandSteel

36

ScenarioAnalysisofEmissionsReductionPotential

37

SettingGreenProcurementTargets

37

PotentialImpactofGreenProcurementforChina’sGlobalInfrastructureProjects

38

RoleofDecarbonizationLeversinAchievingGreenProcurementTargetsforChina’sGlobal

InfrastructureProjects

41

StrategiesforDecarbonizingCementinBRIProjects

41

StrategiesforDecarbonizingSteelinBRIProjects

42

InternationalBestPracticesonGreenProcurement

45

MultilateralDevelopmentBanks

46

BilateralDevelopmentAgencies

47

LessonsforChinaandBRIFinancingInstitutions

48

PolicyRecommendationsforBRIGreenProcurement

50

ImplementationChallenges

50

FrameworkforaGreenProcurementPolicyforChina’sOverseasInvestment

51

ImplementationMechanisms

55

Conclusions

57

References

60

Appendices

66

MethodologyforEstimatingMaterialProcurementandEmissions

66

CO2emissionsandimpactanalysis

69

DataGapsandUncertainties

70

ListofAcronyms

71

Jakarta,Indonesia.PhotobyFasyahHalimviaUnsplash.

GreeningtheSteelandCementUsedinChina’sGlobalInfrastructureProjects7

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

China’sdevelopmentfinanceinstitutions(DFIs),primarilytheChinaDevelopmentBank(CDB)andtheExport–ImportBankofChina(CHEXIM),havebecomecentralplayersinglobalinfrastructuredevelopment.TheseDFIshavecontributedtoeconomicgrowthinhostcountriesbyunlockinginfrastructurebottlenecks,increasingtradeandimprovinginfrastructureandenergyaccess(Gallagheretal.2023).Atthesametime,China’soverseasinfrastructureprojectshavecomeunderscrutinyfortheirclimateimpact.Whileattentionhasoftenfocusedontheirroleinfinancingfossilfuelversusrenewablepowerprojects,thisreporthighlightsanothercriticaldimensionofclimateimpact:themassivevolumesofsteelandcement,bothcarbon-intensivematerials,usedinBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)projects.Thesematerialsareindispensableforroads,railways,bridges,portsandpowerplants,yettheirproductionaccountsfornearlyone-fifthofglobalCO2emissions.TheBRI,spanningmorethan140countries,thereforenotonlyshapesenergysystemsandtransportbutalsolocksinmaterial-relatedemissionsfordecades.

Steelandcementdemandisexpectedtoremainstrongindevelopingeconomies,especiallyinAsiaandAfricawheremostBRIprojectsarelocated.WithChinesedomesticdemandforsteelandcementplateauing,BRIinfrastructurealsoprovidesanoutletforChina’sindustrialproductionovercapacityinthesesectors,whichexceedsdomesticconsumptionlevels.Againstthisbackdrop,greenprocurementcanbeapowerfultooltoreduceembodiedemissionsbyembeddinglow-carbonrequirementsintothesourcingofcementandsteel.Inthisreport,wequantifythematerialdemandandassociatedemissionsinkeyBRItransportandenergyprojects,exploregreenprocurementscenariosanddiscussimplementationpathwaysthatcouldalignChinese-financedinfrastructurewithglobalclimategoals.

China’soverseasdevelopmentfinance,representingpublicandpubliclyguaranteedloansbyCDBandCHEXIM,hasprovidedoverUS$472billioninloanssince2008,makingitthelargestbilaterallenderforglobalinfrastructureanddevelopment.Whilethismodelhasexpandedeconomicopportunitiesabroad,ithasalsodirectedvastsumsintocarbon-intensivesectors.Theenergysectoristhelargestrecipient,with$184billionsince2008,muchofitforfossilfuelextraction,coalpowerandlargehydropower.Transportisthesecond-largestrecipientsector,spanningroads,railways,airportsandports,allhighlymaterial-intensive.

Steelandcementareatthecoreoftheseprojects.Forexample,steelisessentialforboilers,turbinesandtransmissiontowersthatunderpinelectricpowersystems,whilecementreinforcedwithrebarformsthefoundationsofdams,roadsandbridges.Thesematerialsensuredurability,buttheyareamongthemostcarbon-intensivetoproduce.TheclimateimplicationsaremagnifiedbyChina’shistoricfocusonfossilfuels:Chinese-financedpowerplantsaroundtheworldalreadyemit287milliontons(Mt)CO2peryear,withanother53Mtlikelyifplannedprojectsproceed.1LifetimeemissionsfromcoalplantswithChinesebackingcouldreach11GtCO2,aboutone-thirdofAsia’stotal.Beyonddirectemissions,BRIprojectsoftendrivedeforestation,biodiversitylossandland-usechangewhilealsofacingclimateriskssuchasfloods,typhoonsandwaterstress.Thisdualdynamicmakesitanurgentneedtoreduceembodiedandoperationalemissionswhileatthesametimeimprovingclimateresilience,acentralpriorityformanyhostcountries.

CementuseinenergyandtransportprojectsfinancedbyChina’sDFIsisestimatedtogenerate2,452ktCO2,assumingallcementissourcedfromwithinthecountrywheretheprojectislocated.Completedprojectsaccountforthemajority,at1,988ktCO2,whileprojectsunderconstructioncontribute406ktCO2andplannedprojectsjust58ktCO2.Emissionsarehighlyconcentrated,with

1Allusesof“ton”throughoutthisreportrefertometrictons.

ExecutiveSummary

Introduction

China’sGlobal

InfrastructureProjects

andDemandforSteel

andCement

ScaleandSources

ofSteelandCement

ProcurementinKey

EnergyandTransport

ProjectsFinancedby

China

TotalCO2Emissions

fromSteelandCement

usedinKeyEnergy

andTransportation

ProjectswithChinese

DevelopmentFinance

PotentialEmissions

ReductionfromGreen

ProcurementofCement

andSteelinChina’s

OverseasInfrastructure

Projects

InternationalBest

PracticesonGreen

Procurement

Policy

Recommendationsfor

BRIGreenProcurement

Conclusions

References

Appendices

8GreeningtheSteelandCementUsedinChina’sGlobalInfrastructureProjects

SouthAfrica,Indonesia,Argentina,EthiopiaandAngolatogetherresponsibleforabout977ktCO2,or40percentofthetotal.Thisshowsthatasmallnumberofcountriesdrivealargeshareofcement-relatedembodiedemissions,andthatcompletedprojectsdominatethefootprintduetothedeclineinnewoverseasdevelopmentfinanceinrecentyears.

Steelemissionsvarymoredependingonsourcingassumptions.IfallsteelwereproduceddomesticallyinBRIpartnerorhostcountries(withChinasupplyingonlythosecountrieslackinglocalsteelindustries),emissionswouldtotalabout3,480ktCO2,comparedwith4,772ktCO2ifallsteelcamefromChina.Wealsomodeledascenariowitha50/50splitbetweendomesticandChinesesupply,forwhichemissionswereanestimated3,966ktCO2.Inallscenarios,completedprojectsaccountformostembodiedemissions,withover2,900ktCO2underthedomesticcaseandmorethan4,000ktCO2undertheChinese-supplyscenario.Thetopfivecountries,Argentina,SouthAfrica,Indonesia,EthiopiaandAngola,makeupabout62percentofsteel-relatedemissionsunderthedomesticcase.Theseresultsunderlinethatsourcingchoicesmatter:relyingonChinesesteelraisesemissionsby37percentduetoitshighercarbonintensity,whileevenamixedapproachincreasesthemby14percent.Greenprocurementstrategies,therefore,playacrucialroleinreducingthecarbonfootprintofBRIinfrastructureprojects(seeFigureES1).

FigureES1:CO2EmissionsAssociatedwithSteelUsedinChina’sOverseasDevelopmentFinanceintheEnergyandTransportationSectors

Source:Authors’elaboration.

Note:ProjectscoveredinthisstudyincludeonlykeytransportandenergysectorsreceivingdevelopmentfinancefromChina,seeSection3.

Forcement,theanalysisshowsthatgreenprocurementcouldsignificantlycutemissionsfromChinese-financedtransportandenergyprojects.Totalcement-relatedemissionsinthedatasetamounttoabout2,452ktCO2,withnearly2,000ktCO2alreadylockedintocompletedprojects.ApplyingprocurementstandardsthatprogressivelyreducedCO2intensitycouldhavedeliveredmeaningfulsavings:around368ktCO2inalow-reduction(15%)case,735ktCO2inamediumcase(30%),andover1,226ktCO2underahigh-reductionpathway(50%).Themostambitiousscenario,aimingfora75percentcut,couldhaveachievedareductionof1,840ktCO2.Whilecompleted

GreeningtheSteelandCementUsedinChina’sGlobalInfrastructureProjects9

projectsdominatethefootprint,applyingsuchpoliciestoprojectsunderconstructionandplanningwouldstillsecurereductions.Beyonddirectsavings,thesepolicieswouldcreatestrongmarketsignalsforhost-countryproducerstoinvestinefficiency,clinkersubstitutionandinnovativetechnologiessuchasLimestoneCalcinedClayCement(LC3),therebyacceleratingbroaderdecarbonization.

Forsteel,theemissionsreductionpotentialdependsonboththelevelofprocurementambitionandthesourcingmix.Underalow-reduction(15%)target,greenprocurementcouldcut522–716ktCO2dependingonsourcing,orabout595ktCO2ifsteelissplitequallybetweendomesticandChinesesupply.Thesesavingsgrowto1,044–1,432ktCO2underamedium(30%)target,1,740–2,386ktCO2underahigh(50%)targetand2,610–3,579ktCO2underatransformative(75%)target,withmid-mixprojectsachieving1,190,1,983and2,974ktCO2reductionsrespectively.Mostofthispotentialcomesfromcompletedprojects,thoughprojectsunderconstruction(70–349ktCO2)andunderplanning(8–38ktCO2)stilladdmeaningfulreductions.Theresultsunderlinetwolevers:ambitiousprocurementtargetsandsmartsourcing.Domesticsteel,whereelectricarcfurnace(EAF)routesdominate,generallylowersemissions,whilerequiringlow-carbonstandardsforimportedChinesesteelcandrivedeeperoverallcutsandstimulatedecarbonizationinbothsupplyregions(seeFigureES2).

FigureES2:CO2EmissionsReductionPotentialfromSteelUsedinAnalyzedTransportandEnergyProjectsunderDifferentSourcingScenarios

Source:Thisstudy.

Note:TheChinesedevelopment–financedprojectscoveredinthisstudyincludeonlyprojectsinkeytransportandenergysectors.TheimplementationofgreenprocurementforcementandsteelinBRIprojectsfacesmajorchallenges.TheseincludegapsingovernanceframeworksacrossChineseandhost-countryinstitutions;limitedemissionsdataandreportingcapacity;highercostsoflow-carbonmaterials;costconstraintsforcertaindecarbonizedsteelandcementproductiontechnologies;andvaryinglevelsofpoliticalsupportforstricterstandards.However,strongenablerscansupportadoption.Theseincludealignmentwithglobalgreenprocurementpolicies;theleverageofChineseDFIsandstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs)indrivingsupplychainshifts;capacity-buildingforhost-country

ExecutiveSummary

Introduction

China’sGlobal

InfrastructureProjects

andDemandforSteel

andCement

ScaleandSources

ofSteelandCement

ProcurementinKey

EnergyandTransport

ProjectsFinancedby

China

TotalCO2Emissions

fromSteelandCement

usedinKeyEnergy

andTransportation

ProjectswithChinese

DevelopmentFinance

PotentialEmissions

ReductionfromGreen

ProcurementofCement

andSteelinChina’s

OverseasInfrastructure

Projects

InternationalBest

PracticesonGreen

Procurement

Policy

Recommendationsfor

BRIGreenProcurement

Conclusions

References

Appendices

10GreeningtheSteelandCementUsedinChina’sGlobalInfrastructureProjects

ExecutiveSummary

Introduction

China’sGlobal

InfrastructureProjects

andDemandforSteel

andCement

ScaleandSources

ofSteelandCement

ProcurementinKey

EnergyandTransport

ProjectsFinancedby

China

TotalCO2Emissions

fromSteelandCement

usedinKeyEnergy

andTransportation

ProjectswithChinese

DevelopmentFinance

PotentialEmissions

ReductionfromGreen

ProcurementofCement

andSteelinChina’s

OverseasInfrastructure

Projects

InternationalBest

PracticesonGreen

Procurement

Policy

Recommendationsfor

BRIGreenProcurement

Conclusions

References

Appendices

producers;partnershipstoscaleinnovationssuchasLC3cementandhydrogen-basedsteel;andsynergieswithdevelopmentgoalssuchaslowerenergycosts,competitivenessandcleanerair.

DevelopingagreenprocurementframeworkforChina’soverseasdevelopmentfinanceisessentialtoreducingthecarbonfootprintofBRIinfrastructureprojects.Bysettingclearstandardsforlow-carbonsteelandcement,Chinacanalignitsglobalinvestmentswithclimategoals,supportindustrialmodernizationinhostcountriesandmaintaincompetitivenessinincreasinglyclimate-consciousmarkets.TherecommendationssummarizedinTableES1highlightactionsforministries,DFIsandSOEs,alongwithcross-cuttingmechanismstoenableeffectiveimplementation.

TableES1:PolicyRecommendationsforBRIGreenProcurement

Actor

KeyRecommendations

Regulatoryministries:

MinistryofCommerce(MOFCOM),

NationalDevelopmentandReform

Commission(NDRC),Ministryof

Finance(MOF),MinistryofHousingand

Urban-RuralDevelopment(MOHURD),

MinistryofIndustryandInformation

Technology(MIIT),MinistryofEcologyandEnvironment(MEE)

•

•

•

•

•

Jointlyissueoverseasgreenprocurementguidelineswithcarbonintensitybenchmarksforsteelandcement

MandateEnvironmentalProductDeclarations(EPDs)orverifiedcarbondataintendersandprojectapprovals

Establishtieredcarbonintensitythresholds(Basic,Advanced,Best-in-Class)alignedwithglobalstandards

Leveragedomesticexperience(e.g.,MOFprocurementcatalogs,MOHURDgreenbuildingstandards)toinformoverseas

guidelines

Integrategreenstandardsintooutboundinvestmentapprovalsandoversight

Developmentfinanceinstitutions:

ChinaDevelopmentBank(CDB),Export-ImportBankofChina(CHEXIM)

•

•

•

•

•

Requiregreenprocurementplans(withsourcingstrategiesandemissionsdata)inloanapplications

Providefinancialincentivesforlow-carbonmaterialuseEstablishinternalscoringsystemstorateprojectsonprocurementperformance

PublishtechnicalguidelinesandcasestudiesforborrowersCollaboratewithinternationalfinancialinstitutions(IFIs)toalignstandardsandrecognizeEPDs

State-ownedenterprises(SOEs),overseenbyState-OwnedAssetsSupervisionandAdministrationCommission(SASAC)

•

•

•

•

Incorporatelow-carboncriteria(EPDs,thresholds,life-cycleassessments/LCAs)intosuppliercontractsandprocurementrules

Pilotdemonstrationprojectsforlow-carbonsteelandcementprocurement.

AlignSOEperformancemetricswithclimategoalsbyaddinggreenprocurementkeyperformanceindicators(KPIs)

Buildtechnicalcapacityanddatasystemsforprocurementofficersandprojectmanagers

Cross-cuttingimplementationmechanisms

•

•

•

•

Harmonizewithinternationalstandards(ISO14040/44,

ResponsibleSteel,GlobalCementandConcreteAssociation)Buildcapacityinhostcountriesthroughtraining,technicalassistance,andSouth–Southlearning.

Establishstrongmonitoring,reportingandverification(MRV)systems,includingthird-partyauditsanddigitaltrackingtoolsCreateacentralizedgreenmaterialsregistryforsteeland

cementusedinoverseasprojects

China.PhotobyV1r7zZviaUnsplash.

12GreeningtheSteelandCementUsedinChina’sGlobalInfrastructureProjects

INTRODUCTION

China’sdevelopmentfinanceinstitutions(DFIs)playanimportantroleinglobalinfrastructuredevelopment.EmpiricalresearchhasshownthattheseDFIshaveprovidedfinancingforliquidityanddevelopmentfinanceatalevelthathasledtosignificanteconomicgrowthinhostcountries.Asaresultoftheirfocusoninfrastructurelending,ChineseDFIshaveunlockedinfrastructurebottlenecksandincreasedenergyaccessmorethantraditionalDFIssuchastheWorldBank.TheyhavealsosupportedSouth-ledalternativeinstitutionsinglobaleconomicgovernanceandhelpedincreasethescaleofadditionalandalternativefinancing,furtherprovidingopportunitiesforhostcountries(Gallagheretal.2023).

However,giventheworseningeffectsofclimatechangeandglobalcommitmenttoenergytransition,theseDFIs,namelytheChinaDevelopmentBank(CDB)andtheExport–ImportBankofChina(CHEXIM),areincreasinglyawareoftheneedtoaligninvestmentportfolioswiththegloballow-carbonenergytransition.MuchrecentattentionhasfocusedonthecompositionofChineseDFIs’lendingforpowergenerationprojects,particularlycoal-firedpowerplants,whichareamajorsourceofCO2emissions(e.g.,KongandGallagher2021;Springer2022).

WhiletheshiftinChina’soverseaslendingfromfossilfuelstowardrenewableenergyisacriticalstepinmeetingclimategoals,thereisanothermajordriverofemissionsembeddedinChina’sglobalinfrastructurepush:theuseofcarbon-intensiveconstructionmaterials.Steelandcementareattheheartofnearlyallinfrastructure,bridges,ports,powerplants,railwaysandroads.Theyareessentialinputs,buttheyarealsoamongthemostcarbon-intensivematerialsproducedglobally.ForChina’sDFIsandcontractorsengagedintheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI),addressingtheembodiedemissionsofsteelandcementisanequallyimportantfrontierofclimateaction.

Globaldemandforsteelandcementhasgrownsharplyinrecentdecadesascountriesindustrializeandurbanize.Thisdemandisprojectedtoremainstrongindevelopingeconomies,whereBRIprojectsareconcentrated,especiallyinAsiaandAfrica.Yet,theproductionofsteelandcementaccountsforsomeofthelargestsharesofindustrialgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsworldwide.CementaloneisresponsibleforoversevenpercentofglobalCO2emissions,whilesteelcontributesaround11percent(Hasanbeigi2021,2025).

Chinadominatesbothsectors,producingmorethanhalfoftheworld’ssteelandcement.Asdomesticdemandhasbeguntoplateauand,insomecases,decline,particularlyinconstruction,raisingconcernsaboutthelong-termeconomiccompetitivenessoftheseindustriesinChina.TheBRIhashelpedChinesecompaniesaccessnewmarkets,withChinesefirmsexportingsteelandcement,investinginoverseasproductionfacilitiesandsupplyingmaterialsforlarge-scaleinfrastructureabroad.Thus,BRIprojectsnotonlyembodylargeamountsofmaterial-relatedemissionsbutalsoinfluencethetrajectoryofglobalsteelandcementproduction.

TheBRIistheworld’slargesttransnationalinfrastructurefinanceprogram,spanningmorethan140countriesandmobilizinghundredsofbillionsofdollarsinfinance.Manyparticipatingcountriesarehighlyvulnerabletoclimatechangeandareunderpressuretobalance