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INVESTMENTAPPRAISAL
[对应中文教材2008年财务成本管理第五章:投资管理]
A.ROCE(已动用资本回报率)orARR(会计收益率)(AccountingRateofReturn)
、公手写板图示O3OLO2
匕。CE二
2乩M。贝
B.Payback(回收期法)
Paybackperiod
=Initialpayment/Annualcashinflow,paybackisnotalwaysanexactnumber3fyears
Mostcommonformula:
ROCE=EBIT(afterdepreciation)/initialcapitalcosts
、公手写板图示0301-04
CNPV(净现值法)
(1)Basicassumptions:
,cashoutlayoccursinyear0(now).
,cashflowsoccurattheendoftheyear.
,ifacashflowoccursatthebeginningofayear,itisassumedtooccurattheend
ofthepreviousyear.
DIRR(内含报酬率法)
、公手写板图示O3OLO7'
(1)Basicprinciple:IRRisthecostofcapitalatvhichtheNPViszero,iftheexpected
IRRishigherthanatargetrateofreturn;theprojectisfinanciallyworthundertaking.
>____________
、公手写板图示0301-08
NPV
(2)SclcctionbetweenIRRandNPV:whenachoicehas:obemadebetweenmutuallyexclusive
projects,insuchcasetheNPVshouldbeselected,becausehigherNPVcanmaximize
shareholder,swealth.
、公手写板图示030L09
松5
Definition
Thediscountratwhich,whenapp1iedtothecashf1owsofaproject,givesanNPVof
zero.
Or
Thebreak-eveninterestrateforaproject.
Annuityfactor
Initialinvestment
attheIRR=(Equal)AnnualInflow
forthe1ifeoftheproject
Unevencashflows
Thosehavetobofoundbytrialanderrororbyestimatingusingtwopresentvalues.
IRR=A+—^-—
%-为
Where:A=lowerratechcsen"。=NPVatrateA
B二higherrate"二NPVatrateB
IthelpstogetAandBasclosetothetrueIRRaspossible,butitdoosn,tmatter
whether
theresultantNPVsarepositive,negativeoroneofeach.
Somestudentsprefertouseacommonsenseapproachratherthanaformula.Seeingby
now
MuchNPVhasfallen(fromatoQ)asthediscountratehasrisenfromAtoB,
TheyfindhowmuchmorethediscountrateneedstorisetobringtheNPVtozero.
Whethertheformulaisusedorcommonsense,thecalculationassumesalinear
relationship
BetweenNPVanddiscountrate.Infacttherelationshipisnotlinear,hencethe
calculation
Isonlyapproximateand(unlessyouhavebeenluckywhenguessingwhichdiscountrates
to
use)youshouldnotquoteIRR'scalculatedinthiswaytomany,nottoany,decimal
places-
unlesstheexaminerasksyou.
IRRofaperpetuity
Thepresentvalueofaperpetuityistheannualcashflowdividedbythediscountrate
(expressedasadecirraI.Fromthisitfollowsthat:
Annualcashflows
theIRRofaperpetuity二initialinvestment=100
Perpetuity:永续年金
Methodofpresentation
AsimplecalculationsuchasthoseforWoodscanbedoneonasingleline.Forlarger
projects
twopossibilitiesexist:
(i)thecashbudgetapproach
(ii)thetabularapproach.
(1)Cashbudgetapprcach
Time0123
£*000£,000£'000£'000
Investment(X)X
Advertising(X)(X)
Workingcapital(X)X
Materials(X)(X)(X)
Labour一(X)(X)(X)
Overheads—(X)(X)(X)
Revenue一一X
——
Netcashflow(X)(X)(X)X
y%Discountfactor1XXX
Presentvalue(X)(X)(X)X
Netpresentvalue(£'000)X
Thecashbudgetapproachissuitableforshortprojectswithlotsofdifferentcash
flows
Whichchangefromyeartoyear.
(2)Tabularapproach
TimeCashflowy%DiscountPresentva1ue
£'000£'000£,000
0Investment(X)1(X)
0and1Advertising(X)X(X)
0Workingcapital(X)1(X)
0-9Materials(X)1(X)
1-10Labourandoverheads(X)X(X)
1-10RevenueXXX
10SalesproceedsXXX
10WCrecoveryXXX
Netpresentvalue(£'000)X
Thetabularapproachissuitableforlongprojectswithlotsofdifferentcashflows
thatare
Thesamefromyeartoyear(enablingannuityfactorstobeused).
Pickingtherightfigures
Whencarryingoutdiscountedcashflowanalysisitisimportanttoselecttheright
figures.
Ignore:
1.Sunkcosts-<imountsthathavealreadybeenspent
2.Depreciation-notacashflow
3.Bookvalues-notacashflow
4.Non-incrementalfixedcosts(lookoutforthewordswreapportionedfixed
overheadsM)
5.Interestcosts-takenintoaccountbythediscountingprocess
Include:
Thosecashflowsthatarespecificallyreceivedorincurredas<xresultoftheacceptance
oftheproject(future-incremental-cashflows).
Assetreplacementdecision
Factorstobeconsideredwhenrnakingreplacementdecisionareasfo11ows:
,capitalcostofnewequipment;
,operatingcosts,increasedrepairandmaintenancecosts;
lossofproductivity;
lowerofqualityandquantityofoutput;
」公手写板图示0301T2
SCMyO版/叱
几(/以Lc
Oneapplicationofdiscountedcashflowistomakedecisionsconcernedwiththe
replacementof
Machinery.Thisappliestoshort1ifeassetsthatwillneedtobereplacedin
perpetuity(e.g.motor
Carsorphotocopier
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