大学英语听力教程第三册听力原文(第二版-张民伦主编)

大学英语听力教程第三册（第二版）听力原文

UNIT1IstheEarthBeingSqueezedDry

PartiGettingready

BTheAmazonforestsaredisappearingbecauseofincreasedburning

andtreeremoval.InSeptember,satellitepicturesshowedmorethan

20000firesburningintheAmazon.Expertssaymostofthesefires

weresetbyfarmers.Thefarmerswereattemptingtoclearlandto

growcrops.TheWorldWildlifeFundsaysanotherseriousproblem

isthattoomanytreesintheAmazonrainforestarebeingcutdown.

TheWorldWildlifeFundsaysthefiresshowtheneedforurgent

internationalactiontoprotecttheworld'srainforests.Thegroup

warnsthatwithoutsuchactionsomeforestscouldbelostforever.

2.EnvironmentalissuesswelltothefullinBerlinthisweek,fortheUNspongsored

conferenceonglobalwarmingandclimatechangeisthefirstsuchmeetingsincetheRio

summitthreeyearsago.Withscientistsandgovernmentsnowgenerallyreadytoaccept

thattheearthclimateisbeingaffectedbyemissionsofCO2andothergreenhousegases,

overahundredcountriesaresendingdelegations.Buthowmuchprogresshasbeen

madeimplementingthegreenhousegasreductiontargetagreedonatRio?SimonDary

reports...

Part2Theearthatrisk

I:BrianCowlesistheproducerofanewseriesof

documentariescalled"TheEarthatRisk"whichcanbeseenonChannel4laterthis

month.Eachprogramdealswithadifferentcontinent,doesn'tit,Brian?

B:That'sright.WewenttoAmerica,bothNorthandSouthandthenwewent

overtoAfricaandSouth-EastAsia.

I:Andwhatdidyoufindineachofthesecontinents?

B:StartingwithAfrica,ourfilmshowstheimpactofthepopulationonthe

environment.Generallyspeaking,thishascausedtheSaharaDeserttoexpand.It'sabit

ofaviciouscirclewefind.Peoplecutdowntreesforfirewoodandtheirdomestic

animalseatalltheavailableplants—andsoconsequentlytheyhavetomovesouthas

theSaharaDesertexpandsfurthersouth.Imean,soonthewholeofMaliwillbecomea

desert.AndinEastAfrica:herethegrasslandsaresupportingtoomanyanimalsandthe

resultis,ofcourse,there'snograss—nothingfortheanimalstoeat.

I:Isee.AndthenextfilmdealswithNorthAmerica?

B:That'sright.IntheUSA,asyouknow,intensiveagriculturerequiresaplentiful

supplyofrainforthesecropstogrow,Imeanifthereisn'tenoughrainthecropsdon't

grow.Andgrowingcropsstabilizesoil,withoutthemthetopsoiljustblowsaway.This

isalsotrueforanyregionthatisintenselyfarmed—mostofEurope,forexample.

I:AndwhatdidyoufindinSouthAmerica?

B:InSouthAmerica(asinCentralAfricaandSouthernAsia)tropicalforestsare

beingcutdownatanalarmingrate.Thisisdonesothatpeoplecansupportthemselves

bygrowingfoodortocreaterancheswherecattlecanberaisedtobeexportedtoEurope

orAmericaastinnedmeat.Theproblemisthatthesoilissopoorthatonlyacoupleof

harvestsarepossiblebeforethisverythinsoilbecomesexhausted.Anditcan'tbefed

withfertilizerslikeagriculturallandinEurope.

Forexample,inBrazilin1982anareaofjunglethesizeofBritainandFrancecombined

wasdestroyedtomakewayforanironoremine.Hugenumbersoftreesarebeingcut

downforexportsashardwoodtoJapan,Europe,USAtomakethingslikeluxury

furniture.Theseforestscan'tbereplaced—theforestsoilisthinandunproductiveand

injustafewyears,ajunglehasbecomeawasteland.Tropicalforestscontainrareplants

(whichwecanuseformedicines,forexample)andanimals—oneanimalorplant

speciesbecomesextincteveryhalfhour.Theseforesttreesalsohaveworldwideeffects.

Youknow,theyconvertcarbondioxideintooxygen.Theconsequenceofdestroying

forestsisnotonlythattheclimateofthatregionchanges(becausethereislessrainfall)

butthischangeaffectsthewholeworld.Imean,overhalftheworld'srainforesthas

beencutdownthiscentury.

Part3sectionAI-Interviewer

B-BrianCowles

I:So,Brian,wouldyouagreethatwhatwegenerallythinkofasnaturaldisasters

areinfactman-made?

B:Yes,byandlarge.Imean,obviouslynothurricanesorearthquakes,buttake

flooding,forexample.Practicallyeveryyear,thewholeofBangladeshisfloodedand

thisisgettingworse.Youknow,thecauseisthatforestshavebeencutdownupinNepal

andIndia,Imeanhigherup-riverintheHimalayas.Treeswouldholdrainfallintheir

roots,butifthey'vebeencutdownalltherainthatfallsinthemonsoonseasonflows

sraightintotheriverGangesandfloodsthewholecountry.Thereasonforfloodingin

Sudanisthesame—theforestshigheruptheBlueNileinEthiopiahavebeendestroyed

too.

I:Well,thisallsoundsterriblydepressing.Um...Whatistobedone?Imean,

cananythingbedone,infact?

B:Yes,ofcourseitcan.First,thenationalgovernmentshavetobe

forward-lookingandconsidertheresultsoftheirpoliciesintenortwentyyears,notjust

thinkasfaraheadasthenextelection.Somehow,allthecountriesintheworldhaveto

worktogetheronaninternationalbasis.Secondly,thepopulationhastobecontrolledin

someway:therearetoomanypeopletryingtoliveofftoolittleland.Thirdly,wedon't

needtropicalhardwoodtomakeourfurniture—it'saluxurypeopleintheWestmustdo

without.Softwoodsarejustasgood,lessexpensiveandcanbeproducedon

environment-friendly"treefarms",wheretreesarereplacedatthesameratethattheyare

cutdown.

I:And,presumably,educationisimportantaswell.Peoplemustbeeducatedto

realizetheconsequencesoftheiractions?

B:Yes,ofcourse.

I:Well,thankyou,Brian.

sectionBI-InterviewerB-BrianCowles

I:So,Brian,wouldyouagreethatwhatwegenerallythinkofas...er...aser...

naturaldisastersareinfactman-made?

B:Yes,byandlarge...er...Imean,obviouslynothurricanesorearthquakes,but

takeflooding,forexample.Imean,practicallyeveryyear,thewholeofBangladeshis

floodedandthisisgettingworse.Youknow,thecauseisthatforestshavebeencutdown

upinNepalandIndia...Imean...higherup-riverintheHimalayas.Trees...er...would

holdrainfallintheirroots,butifthey'vebeencutdownalltherainthatfallsinthe

monsoonseasonflowsstraightintotheriverGangesandfloodsthewholecountry.The

reasonforfloodinginSudanisthesame—theforestshigheruptheBlueNilein

Ethiopiahavebeendestroyedtoo.

Part4Theworldiswarmingup.Weknowthisbecauseaveragetemperaturesarethe

highestsincescientistsstartedmeasuringthem600yearsago.Theincreaseisabout

0.2℃everyyear.Thismayseemveryslight,butweknowthatslightchangesin

temperaturecanhaveabigeffectonotherthings.Mostscientistsnowbelievethisglobal

warmingisduetohumanactivity.

JeffJenkinsisheadofBritain'sClimatePredictionCenter.Heexplainshow

globalwarmingcanhappen.

"Sunlightstrikestheearthandwarmsitup.Atthesametimeheatleavesthe

earth,butpartofthatistrappedbycarbondioxideandothergasesintheearth's

atmosphere.Thathasbeenhappeningeversincetheearthwasformed.Butthefearis

thatincreasingamountsofcarbondioxideproducedbyindustrialprocessesandtransport

andsoonwillleadtoagreaterwarmingoftheearth'ssurface.Sothat'sthegolbal

warmingthatpeopleareconcernedabout."

Peoplearemostconcernedabouttheuseoffossilfuels.Fossilfuelsareoil,

coal,woodandsoon.Whenthesebum,theyproducethegascarbondioxide.Many

scientistsagreethatanincreaseintheamountofcarbondioxideandsomeofthegasesin

theatmospherewillincreasetheamountofwarming.Computersarebeingusedto

predictwhatthismaymean.Theyshowedthattherecouldbegreatchangesinrainfall

andtheriseinthesealevelasicecapsinthenorthandsouthpolesmelt.Thiscouldhave

aseriouseffectonagricultureaccordingtoProf.MartinPerryofUniversityCollegein

London.Hesaysitcouldbecomemoredifficulttogrowfoodinthetropicsatlower

latitudesnearertotheequator.

"Themostclearpatternemergingisthepossibilityofreducedpotential

productioninlowerlatituderegions,andmostgenerallyspeaking,increasedpotentialin

higherlatituderegions.Lowerlatituderegionsarealreadywarm,toputitextremely

simply,andplantstherearequiteneartheirlimitsofheatanddroughtstress.Anincrease

intemperatureorreductioninmoisturewouldplacelimitsoncropgrowth."

Woman:Globalwarmingcouldreducefoodproductioninlowerlatituderegions.

Lowerlatituderegionsarealreadywarm.Globalwarmingcouldputmorestressonplans

andplacelimitsoncropgrowth.

Foodproductionisonlyoneareathatcouldbeaffected.Therecouldalso

behealthandsocialproblems.Prof.AntonyMacMichaeloftheLondonSchoolof

HygieneandTropicalMedicinebelievesthatsomeruralareasarealreadysuffering.And

theinsectsandbacteriacouldspreaddiseasemoreeasily.

"Alreadyanumberofruralpopulationsaroundtheworldaresufferingfrom

thedeclineofagriculturalsystems.Climatechangewouldaddtothis.Andwewould

expectthatitwouldacceleratethefloodofenvironmentalrefugeesaroundtheworld.

Butitincludesnotjustthefoodproductionsystems,butthepatternsofdistributionof

insectsandinfectiveagentsaroundtheworld.Itincludeslikelyeffectsonpatternsof

hear-relatedfoodpoisoning,watercontaminationanddiarrheadiseases,lotsofthings

likethisthatwouldrespondsensitivelytochangesinclimate."

Woman:Globalwarmingcouldaffectthedistributionofinsects.Globalwarming

couldchangepatternsofheat-relatedfoodpoisoning.

Manycountriesnowagreethatsomethingmustbedonetoreducethedangerof

globalwarming.Butaworldwideagreementonloweringtheproductionofcarbon

dioxidehasbeendifficulttoreach.Thisisbecausemanyeconomiesdependonfossil

fuelslikeoil.Scientistsbelieveit'snowthepoliticiansineveryregionoftheworldwho

needtotakeaction.

Part5EnvironmenthastakenratherabackseatpoliticallysincetheEarthsummit

inRiodeJaneironearly5yearsago.Buttheproblemsthatmeetinghighlightedhadnot

goneaway.Oneenvironmentalthinktank—theInternationalFoodPolicyResearch

Institute—hasbeenlookingatthefutureofwateranditsreportreflectsgrowing

concernatthehugeleapinusageoverthepastfewyears.

Insomepartsoftheworld,waterconsumptionhasincreasedfivefold.Andthe

institute,knownbyitsinitialsIFPRI,saysshortagescouldsoonbecomethetriggerfor

conflictandamajorbarriertofeedingtheworld'sgrowingpopulation.Here'sRichard

BlackofourScienceUnit.

"It'softenbeensaidthatwaterratherthanoilwillbethecauseofwarfareinthe

nextcentury.AccordingtotheIFPRIreport,thetimewhenthathappensmightnotbefar

away.Thenumberofpeopleaifectedbywatershortagewillincreasetenfoldoverthe

next30years,itsays,whichcouldwellleadtolargescaleconflicts.

Themainreasonwhywaterisbecomingascarceresourceisagriculture,which

nowaccountsfor70%ofwaterconsumptionworldwide,90%insomedeveloping

countries.Countlessfarmershaveswitchedfromgrowingindigenouscropsforthehome

markettohighyieldexportvarieties,whichinevitablyneedfarmorewater.Butthe

IFPRIreportsaysthatinsomeregionswatershortageisnowthesinglebiggest

impedimenttofeedingthepopulation.Waterscarcityalsoleadstowaterpollution.Inthe

IndianStateofWestBengal,forexample,overextractionofwaterfromboreholeshas

ledtoarsenicpoisoningwhichisestimatedtohaveaffectedtwomillionpeoplesofar.

ButtheIFPRIreportcallsforbetterwatermanagementworldwideincludingfinancial

incentivestoencourageconservation."

Unit2

Unit2Partl

A:Hello,I'mcallingonbehalfoftheWorldWildlifeFund.

B:Thewhat?

A:TheWorldWildlifeFund.Ifyou'vegotafewminutesI'dliketotellyou

whatthatmeans.

B:Oh,allright.

A:Weworktoconservenaturalareasthatcontain

endangeredwildlife.Theseas,forexample,have

becomepollutedbytheindustrializedworld;whalesare

beinghuntedtoextinction;turtlesarerolledofftheir

eggswhentheycomeashoretobreedorare

slaughteredfortheirmeatandoil...

B:Oh.

A:Crocodilesarekilledtomakehandbagsand

shoes;walrusesarehuntedfortheirivory.

B:Isee.

A:Sealsarebludgeonedtodeathtoprovidefur

coatsandthethreatofextinctionhangsoverseveral

speciesofwhale,dolphinandporpoise.

B:Really.

A:Wearenowcampaigningtoprovideseasanctuariesforsomeoftheseendangered

species.

B:Veryinteresting.

A:Aidedbyourcampaign,protectednestingsitesforturtleshavealreadybeenset

up.Asyoucansee,thisisveryvaluableworkandIwonderthereforeifyou'dliketo

makeadonation?

Part2JohnJamesAudubonwasanAmericanartistintheearly1800s,who

illustratedbirdsintheirnaturalhabitats.TheSocietynamedafterhimwasfoundedin

thelate1800sbyconservationistsconcernedwiththedeclineofbirds,whichwerebeing

killedsotheirfeatherscouldbeusedinthemanufactureofwomen'shats.

SponsoredbytheNationalAudubonSociety,morethan40000volunteerswill

beoutsidecountingbirdsfromtodayuntilJanuary3rd.Volunteersfromall50statesof

theUnitedStates,everyCanadianprovince,partsofCentralandSouthAmerica,

Bermuda,theWestIndiesandPacificislandshavebeguntocountandrecordevery

individualbirdandbirdspeciesobservedduringthetwoandonehalfweekperiodofthe

count.

JeffreyLeBaronistheNationalAudubonSociety'sChristmasBirdCount

editor.Hesaysthecountisthelongest-runningbirdcensusinornithology.

Thisyear,accordingtoMr.LeBaron,morethan1600separatebirdcounts

havebeenscheduled.Somewouldhaveasfewas10peopletakingpart,otherswith

hundreds.ThelogisticsoftheChristmasbirdcount,headds,aresimple.

"Eachindividualcountisinacircle.It'sa15milediametercircle,um,around

theexactcenterpoint.Andit'salwaystheexactlysameareathat'sdoneeveryyear,

usually,evenonthesameweekendduringthecountperiod.Andwhattheidealwouldbe,

whichisvirtuallyimpossible,isthiscensus:everysingleindividualbirdwithinthat

circleonthecountday."

Mr.LeBaronsaysexperiencedbirdcounterscangetagoodideaofthetotal

birdpopulationswithinthecountcirclebasedonthenumberofbirdstheyactuallysee.

Theeditorpointsout,however,thatthecountsarenotonlyforexperiencedbird

watchers.

"Anybodythatisinterestedorconcernedcanbecomeinvolved.Beginnerswill

gooutinapartywithexperiencedindividualswhoknowboththeareaandthebirdsin

thearea,inthefieldwheremoreeyesandearsarebetter.Andthenanybodycanpoint

outabird,andsomeoneinthefieldwillalwaysbeabletoidentifythebird."

Part3A—AlanTuR—RickTroudD—DeborahDuffieldP—Peter

Jones

J-JeanMichelCousteau

[AlanTuisanannouncerforColoradoPublicRadio;PeterJonesisareporterfor

ColoradoPublicRadio.Theotherspeakersareidentifiedinthereport.]

A:AplannedaquaticparkinDenverisraisingtheireofanimalrightsactivistswho

objecttoaproposaltoincludeacaptivedolphindisplay.Althoughofficialsfor

Colorado'sOceanJourneyssaytheyhaveyettomakeafinaldecisionontheissue,local

andnationalactivistshavealreadyinstigateda"NoDolphinsinDenver'campaign.As

ColoradoPublicRadio'sPeterJonesreports,thebattlelineshavebeenclearlydrawn.

P:RickTroud,aformernavydolphintrainerbasedinFlorida,istakinganactiverole

inthe"NoDolphins"campaign.

R:Averageageinthewildrangesanywhereinsomeofthestudiesbetween30and

40yearsofage.Incaptivity,youcanexpectadolphintolivemaybe5.13years,and

every7yearsincaptivity,thedolphinpopulationisdead.

P:AccordingtoTroud,therearemanyreasonswhydolphinscan'tlivefulllivesin

captivity.

R:Ifyoutakealookatwheretherealdolphinisintherealocean,youfindthe

dolphinwhoswims40milesaday,isveryfamily-oriented.Theseanimalsareseparated

fromtheirmothers;that'sastress.Youputtheminaconcretetankwheretheirsonar

bouncesoffofwalls,theycan'tswiminthesameamountoftimeanddirectionthatthey

caninthewild.

P:Environmentalistandoceanexplorer,JeanMichelCousteau:

J:Therearesomeanimalswhichrejectcaptivityrightaway,andthey'revery

suicidal.I'vehadoneofthoseinmyownarmsformanydays.ThenextmorningwhenI

cametotakecareofhim,hewasdead.Andwhathe'ddonewastoswimasfastashe

couldfromoneendofthepoolon...totheothersideanddestroyedhisheadbyhitting

thewall.Theyhaveaverysophisticatedbrain.Idon'tthinkwehaveanyrightstoplay

withthelivesoftheseanimals.

P:Cousteau'santi-captivitypositionischallengedbyDr.DeborahDuffield,a

biologyprofessoratPortlandStateCollegeinOregon.Her1990studycomparedcaptive

dolphinstothewildpopulationofSarasotaBay,Florida.Amongotherfindings,the

studyshowedlittleifanydifferenceintheaverageageofdeath.AndDuffieldsayslifeis

generallygettingbetterforcaptivedolphins.

D:ThecensusdatasaythateverytimeIdoacensus,I'vegotolderandolder

animalsinitaswellasthisnormalagedistributionthatwe'vebeenlookingat.Somy

feelingisthatthetrendincaptivityhasbeenthatthegroupofanimalsthatwe're

followingaregettingolder,andiftheycontinuetodothatoverthenextfiveyears,they

willthenindeedbeolderthanthewildpopulation.

P:Thereisalsoadebateovertheeducationalbenefitsofkeepingmarine

mammalsincaptivity.AccordingtoDuffield,captivedolphinsplayanimportantrolein

ourbasicunderstandingoftheanimals.

D:Ifirmlybelievethatwecannotlearnanythingaboutorganismsthatweshare

thisworldwithifwedonotunderstandhowtheyliveinanenvironment,andwhatthey

do,andthatwatchingthemgobyinthewildwillnotdoit.Icannottellwhatananimal

needs,unlessIknowhowitoperates,howitbreeds,whatitneedsmetabolically,andI

can'tlearnthatfromanimalsinthewild.

P:ButTroudsaysthedolphindisplaysareanti-educationalbecausetheanimals'

naturalbehaviorpatternsarealteredbycaptivity.

R:Inthewild,youdon'thavedolphinswhobeateachothertodeath.Thereare

nodolphinsthatI'veeverseenstrandedonthebeach,whoaresufferingfromfractured

skulls,fracturedribsorfracturedjaws,asisthecaseincaptivity.

P:TheOceanJourneyboardwilltakeallfactorsintoconsiderationbefore

makingafinaldecisiononwhethertoincludedolphinsinthepark.ForColoradoPublic

Radio,I'mPeterJones.

Part4Mr.LeBaronsaysthereareabout9300differentknownspeciesofbirds.

Largernumbersofthemliveinthewarmerclimates.Forexample,morethan300

differentspecieshavebeencountedinPanama,whilefarfewerspeciesarenativeto

colderclimates.Asidefromtheirestheticvalue,Mr.LeBaronsaysbirdsareimportantto

theenvironmentbecausetheycansignalchangesinit.

"Birdsareoneofthebestindicatorsthatwehaveofthequalityofthe

environmentwithinthegivenarea.Whetheritisarelativelylocalarea,orevenprimarily

ontheworldwidebases,theyareoneofthefirstthingstobealtered.Theyarequite

sensitivetoahabitatalterationortootherthreats.Andoftentimeswhenbirdsare

disappearingoutofthearea,itjustmeansthereisadegradationofthequalityofthe

habitatwithinthatareawhichwilladverselyaffecteverythinginthereincluding

humans."

NationalAudubonSocietyeditorJeffreyLeBaroncallstheworld'sbird

populationsasourceofwealththathumansmustprotect.

"Peoplegetsomuchpleasureoutoflookingatbirdsandlisteningtobirds.

Andiftheystartdisappearingjusttheer,thequalityoflife,um,maybenotphysically,

butthementalqualityoflifecanbedegradedquickly."

JeffreyLeBaronsaysthatwhiletheNationalAudubonSociety'sannual

Christmasbirdcountsshowadeclineinsomespecies,manytypesofbirdsareactually

increasingtheirpopulations.

Pa.1?15Scientistshavecatalogedmorethanoneandone-halfmillionofthe

speciesthatexistonEarthtoday.Bysomerecentestimates,atleast20timesthatmany

speciesinhabittheplanet.

.Upto100speciesbecomeextincteveryday.Scientistsestimatethatthetotal

numberofspecieslosteachyearmayclimbto40000bytheyear2000,aratefar

exceedinganyinthelast65millionyears.

.Aroundtheworldmorethan3500protectedareasexistintheformofparks,

wildliferefugesandotherreserves.Theseareascoveratotalofabout2millionsquare

miles(5millionsquarekm,or3%ofourtotallandarea).

.Today,morethan200animalspeciesintheUnitedStatesareclassifiedas

endangered.Morethan1000animalspeciesareendangeredworldwide.

.Little-noticedaquaticanimalsareinbigtrouble.InNorthAmerica,athirdofour

fishspecies,two-thirdsofourcrayfishspeciesandnearlythree-quartersofthemussel

speciesareintrouble.

Unit3

Unit3partiLookinghereatWednesday'sweatherforecastforEurope.It's

certainlyclearthatwinterisstartingtotakeitsgriponthecontinent.Berlinon

Wednesday,mostlycloudyandverycold,and-2degreesforyourhigh.Brussels,

Belgium,alittlewarmeratonedegree,partlysunny.London,5degreesforyourhigh,

mostlycloudythroughouttheday.InParis,yourhightemperatureis0degreeson

Wednesday,partlycloudyaswell.Rome,8degreesforyourhigh,withperiodsofclouds

andsunshine.AndVienna,Austria,-2degreesonWednesday,cloudyandofcoursecold.

Athens,Greece,alittlewarmerat10degrees,periodsofcloudsandsunshineon

Wednesday.Belgrade,Yugoslavia,1degreeforyourhigh,mostlycloudy.Istanbul,5

degrees,andpartlysunny.AndKiev,Ukraine,-7degrees,andyoucanexpectsnow.

Moscow,-9degreesonWednesday,alsosnowy.AndinPrague,theCzechRepublic,-4

degreeswithsnowflurries,sosoundsliketypicalofweatherforthatareaoftheworld.

Let'slookatwhatwehavehereinWashingtonD.C.,nosnowyet,butitwillbecoming.

As1998endsandpeoplelookforwardtothelastyearofthecentury,theWorld

Almanacspokewithexpertsaboutwhatcomesnext.Almanaceditorialdirectorsaysthe

expertsbelievethenextcenturywillbringlotsofchanges.

"Warm,ofcourse,thatourclimateisgoingtocontinuegettingwarmer.That'sthe

subject,bytheway,ofanothernewarticleonthe1999WorldAlmanac.Thegreenhouse

effect,exactlywhatcausesit,andwhatstepstobetakento,um,perhaps,toalleviate

globalwarmings.I'veseenrecentlythat1998isgoingtogodownasthewarmestyear

everonrecord.Andsothat'sgoingtobeamajorissueofthenextcentury,andpossible

tremendousconsequencesoftheglobalwarmings,whetheritisrisingsealevels

affectingthecoastalareas;changesinclimatezonesaffectingwhatcropscanbegrown,

andinwhatregions.Thisispotentiallyaverysignificanttrendtobewatched."

Majoroceanstormsinthenorthernpartoftheworldusuallydevelopin

latesummerorautumnoverwatersneartheequator.Theyareknownbyseveral

differentnames.Scientistscallthesestormscycloneswhentheyhappenjustnorthor

southoftheequatorintheIndianOcean.InthewesternPacificOceanortheChinaSea,

thesestormsarecalledtyphoons.IntheeasternPacificandAtlanticOcean,theyare

calledhurricanes.

Part2SatellitereadingsconfirmthatconditionsarerightforanotherElNino,a

cyclicweatherpatternthataffectstheglobalclimate.

"ElNino'snormallyshowupabouttwiceadecadeanditlastsabout12to18

months,bringingwarmerweathertopartsoftheearth.Someregionsbecomewetterthan

usual,othersdrier.TheElNino,whichbeganin1991haslingeredthroughthisyear.

Althoughseveralyearsmighthavebeenexpectedtopassbeforethenextone,an

American-FrenchsatelliteobservingtheoceanshasfoundasignthatElNinomaycome

backquickerthanexpected.

'"Thesekindsofthingsstillhappen.'ThisisBrigJacker,anoceanographerof

theUSNavalResearchLaboratoryinMississippi.

"'Everyyearisunpredictable.OneyearmightbeElNinoyear,oneyearmight

not.GenerallyElNino'scomeinfouryearcycles.Butthere'snothingtosaythatyou

can'thavetwoElNinoyearsinarow.,

"ElNino'sbeginwiththedeclineofwindspullingcoldwaterawayfromSouth

America'swestcoasttoaroundtheequator.Thisallowswarmwaterinthewestern

PacificOceantoexpandeastwardtowardtheAmerica's.Atthesametime,theclouds

andrainoverthewarmwatermoveeastwardtoo.RadaraboardtheAmerican-French

satellitedetectedthehintthatsuchwatermovementbeganinearlyAugustandreached

SouthAmericatwomonthslater.Itsawaripplecalleda'Calvinwave'movingslowly

eastward.SuchpulsessometimesgiverisetoElNinoconditionsintheeasternequatorial

Pacific.

"ElNino'scanchangetheweatheraroundtheworld,buthowmuchdependson

itsstrength.Astrongonein1982and1983hasbeenlinkedtodroughtsinAustraliaand

Indonesia,rainsandfloodinginSouthAmerica,andunseasonablywarmweatherin

muchoftheUnitedStates.ButeventhemildElNinothatbeganin1991hascaused

trouble.IthasbeenassociatedwithdevastatingfloodsintheUSsoutheastlastyearand

intheUSmidwestthisyear.ElNino'sarehardontheSouthAmericanfishingindustry.

Thewarmwaterspreventnutrientsrichcoldwaterfromrisingtothesurface,causing

fishstockstobecomedepletive.Mr.JackersaidanewElNinoapparentlywouldbemild

butheisn