经济学管理学基础知识及其应用

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《经济学管理学基础知识及其应用》

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TableofContents

ANoteOnFrameworks

StrategicTools&Frameworks

EconomicsFrameworks

Finance&AccountingFrameworks

SampleCases...AnIntroduction

SampleCase&SuggestedSolution

ProfitabilityCases

MarketEntry&GeneralStrategyCases

MoreCaseQuestionsToTry

MarketSizing&EstimationCases

MoreMarketSizing&EstimationCasesToTry

Brainteasers

CasesWithSlides

ANoteOn

Frameworks

Bythetimeyoufaceaclient,wewouldlikeyoutofeelveryconfidentthatyoucanlistentoa

descriptionofasituation,andrapidlyputtogetherasystematic,logicalwayofanalyzingit.Asa

consultant,thefirstimportantthingishowwellyoubreakaproblemdownandthenlogicallytryto

solveit.Wewantyoutobeabletosaytoyourself,*Tvedonethisforseveralcases;IknowIcan

dealwithit.**

Aframeworkcanguideyourintelligentquestioningoftheclients,letsyou

layoutyouranalysisinacoherentmanner,andletsyouapplyyour

experiencetothecasebypointingouthowthecaseisaninstanceofa

moregeneralproblemtowhichyourexperienceapplies.

Wecannotoveremphasizethatthisisaskilldevelopedthroughpractice.Thereisnosubstitutefor

confrontingacase,buildingyourownsystematicwaytoanalyzeit,thenimprovingyourmodel

throughdiscussionswithothers.Neverbeafraidtoexposeyourmodeltoothersforfearthatitis

crude,incomplete,orwrong.Allframeworkshaveholesinthem.Thafsthewholepointof

practicing—tolearnhowtoimproveyourinitialmodelssothatyouwillhavearicherandmore

sophisticatedsetoforganizingschemastodrawupon.

Whatisaframework?

Theworldisconfusing,andtounderstandcause-effectrelationships,wehavetodistillmost

problemstotheiressence.Thafswhattheorydoes,highlightthemostimportantaspectsofa

situationthataccountformostofthevariancebetweenspecificinstancesofthesituation.

Youmightcalltheseimportantaspects"drivers"or^criticalsuccessfactorsMor“independent

variables."Ifourmodeloftheworldisalmostascomplexastheworlditself,itisnotvery

useful—modelshelpusunderstandandpredictonlywhentheystripaproblemdowntosomethingwe

cangrasp,asmallsetofkeydrivingforcesthatwecanfocusonwhileignoringotherthingsthathave

farlessexplanatorypower.Ifyougiveamanagerachecklistof37thingstofocuson,s/hesimply

cannotgrasptheessenceoftheproblem.Ifyoucanhighlightamuchsmallernumberofdriversand

articulatetherelationshipsamongthem,s/henotonlycangrasptheproblembutcanapplythose

insightstoother,similarproblems.

Frameworks-orcallthemmodels,analyticalschemas,analyticallenses,conceptualmaps,etc.

一showthekeycauseandeffectrelationshipsthatyouthinkapersonshouldfocusontoapproacha

givensituation.Theyapplytoageneralclassofproblems;eachcaseisaspecificinstanceofa

problemclass.Theacidtestofwhetheraframeworkisusefulisthatitboth

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explainsandpredicts.Ithelpsyouunderstandwhatisgoingoninthiscaseanddrawappropriate

analogiestoothercasesthatexemplifythesameproblemclass.Ithelpsyoupredictwhatwillhappen

iftheclienttakesagivencourseofaction,andtestyourpredictionbyseeinghowothercasesinthe

sameproblemclassturnout.Thesepredictionsarehypotheses-theyareinsightsintowhatwould

followiftheworldworkedthewayyourmodelsuggests.

Youshouldnottrytofollowarecipewhenconstructingframeworks.Therearemany,manywaysto

organizeanapproachtoaproblem,identifythekeydrivers,andarticulatetherelationshipsamong

them.However,someoftheseorganizingstructuresareweak.Iwillgiveyouafewsuggestionshere

purelytostimulateyourthinking,notbecausetheyrepresentthe“best”frameworks.

Checklists.Theweakestframeworkisthechecklist.Simplytellingmanagers,"Hereare

somethingstothinkabout,ndoesnothelpmuch.Achecklistdoesextractsome

elementsfromtheproblemformanagerstofocuson,butitdoesnotprovidemuch

insightintothenatureoftheproblem,nordoesitshowtherelationshipamongthe

elements.

SWOTAnalyses.Onestepupfromachecklist,andstillaweakframeworkinmy

humbleview,isaSWOT(Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,andThreats)

analysis.Thisisbasicallyachecklistsupplementedbyuprosandcons."Again,itdoes

notprovidealotofinsightintothecause-effectrelationshipsintheproblem,anditdoes

notshowarelationshipamongthoseelements.

TheFamiliarFrameworks.LetmepauseforamomenthereandsuggestthatIdonot

thinkmuchofthe“7S”frameworkMcKinseyused(thatisintheheartofInSearchof

Excellence)whenitisusedsimplyasachecklist.Similarly,itisamisuseofPorter'sfive

forcesmodelsimplytousetheforcesastopicheadings.Porterlaysoutmanycausal

connectionsbetweeneachforceandindustrystructure;itisthecausalconnections,not

thelistoffiveforcesinandofitself,whichisofintellectualvalue.

Articulatingthethreegenericstrategies(costleadership,differentiation-broad

market,anddifferentiation-narrowmarket)isnotveryinteresting;whatisinteresting

isthenotionthatbeing“stuckinthemiddle"doesnotwork.Breakingaproblemdown

intobusinessprocessesofvaluechainsrepresentsprogressonlyifyoucanarticulate

somethingabouttheinterrelationshipsamongthoseprocessesorlinks.

Matrices.Apopularframeworkthatisoftenmisusedisamatrix,fromthehoary2x2to

thesophisticatedmulti-dimensionalmatrices.Drawingamatrixdoesnotinitself

constitutebuildingaframework.Whatmattersiswhetheryoucanarticulatehowthe

cellsaredifferentinsomesystematicway.

“Fit”Frameworks.Somewhatmoresophisticatedisa"it"framework.Forexample,you

wereexposedtotheTushman-NadlerdiagnosticmodelinOrganizationalBehavior.The

ideaisthattheorganizationworksonlywhenitachievescongruencebetweenits

internalstructureandtheenvironment,andcongruenceamongitsinternalelements.

Forexample,andHorganicnstructuremayrepresentabetterfitinaturbulent

environmentthata“mechanistic“structure,whichworksbetterinmorepredictable

environments.

Similarly,alow-costproducercannotaffordheavyR&Dinvestments,whileafirmpursuing

first-moverstrategycannotcompeteonthebasisofefficiency.Tousethiskindofframework,

youneedtospell-outtheelementsandwhatkindsofcongruentconfigurationstheycan

form.

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DecisionTrees.Anexcellentframeworkisadecisiontree.Youhavehadconsiderable

practiceconstructingtheseduringyourfirstyear,anddecisiontreeshaveagooddealof

rigorandvalue,especiallyinforcingyoutoidentifycontingencies.Thoseofyou

interviewingwithMcKinseywillfindthatdecisiontreesarelookedonwithgreatfavor

there.

Causalmodels.Anoftenlessformalframeworkthanadecisiontreeisacausalmodel,

thatessentiallyshowsthecauseandeffectrelationshipsbetweenasetofdrivers.

Thesemodelstendtooversimplifycontingencies,butnonethelesscanadd

considerableclaritytoyourthinking.Themostformalkindofcausemodelyoucould

proposeisamultivariateequation,whichwithabsoluteprecisionandclarityspecifies

whatyouthinkthedriversare,howtheyaffecttheoutcome,andwhatthefunctional

formoftheirimpactwouldlooklike.

Somecausalmodelsspecifythedynamicsofasituation,oftenbyuncovering

interlockingcyclesofabehaviorovertime.Again,thepointisnotthatsuchmodelsare

perfectovertime,butcyclicalbehaviorisverycommonintheworld,andpowerful

insightscanbegainedfromidentifyinginterlockingcyclesthatdampenand/orreinforce

oneanother.

Withimaginationandinsight,youwillcreateothertypesofframeworks.Whatallgoodframeworks

haveincommonisthattheyidentifythedriversofasituationandspecifyboththeinterrelationships

amongthosedriversandhowtheyaffectimportantoutcomes.

StrategicTools&

Frameworks

Generalmarketing,strategyandoperations

conceptsforuseinconsulting

GeneralToolsForConsulting

Thelistpresentedinthefollowingsections,thoughnotexhaustive,coversmostofthestandardtools

youwilluseinconsulting.Usethesetoolstothinkaboutthekeyissuesandtoleadyoufromthefacts

toaconclusion.

Asyoulookatthesetools,though,rememberthatnoframeworkortoolisasgoodasanoriginal

frameworkortool.Playwiththeseideasandframeworksuntilyoudevelopasetofyourown

frameworksthatyoufeelcomfortableusing.

Finally,payattentiontohowlogicallyyoustructureyourproposaloranswer.Thisisabitmore

straightforwardtolearnthantheframeworks,butisnolessimportant.Anexampleofastructurefor

yourinteractionis:

1.Stateorrestatetheproblem.

2.Identifythekeyissuesforfurtherinvestigation.

3.Applytherelevantframeworks.

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4.Summarizeandprovidearecommendation.Itmayalsobeusefulto

discussimplicationsofyourrecommendationsuchascompetitive

reactionsandacceptancewithintheclientorganization.

TheFiveForces

MichaelPorter*s"FiveForces”Modelforindustrystructureandattractivenessanalysisisaclassic

analysisforcasesthatinvolveadecisionastowhethertoinvestinorenteragivenindustry.Thefive

forcesare:

ThreatOfNewEntrants

ThreatOfSubstitutes

SupplierPower

BuyerPower

IndustryRivalry

ThreatOfNewEntrants.Thisforcemeasurestheeasewithwhichnewcompetitors

mayenterthemarketanddisruptthepositionofotherfirms.Thethreatthatoutsiders

willenteramarketisstrongerwhenthebarrierstoentryareloworwhenincumbents

willnotfighttopreventanewcomerfromgainingamarketfoothold.Inaddition,whena

newcomercanexpecttoearnanattractiveprofit,thebarrierstoentryarediminished.

ThreatofSubstitutes.Thethreatposedbysubstituteproductsisstrongwhenthe

featuresofsubstitutesareattractive,switchingcostsarelow,andbuyersbelieve

substituteshaveequalorbetterfeatures.

SupplierPower.Supplierstoanindustryareastrongcompetitiveforcewhenever

theyhavesufficientbargainingpowertocommandapricepremiumfortheirmaterials

orcomponents.Suppliersalsohavemorepowerwhentheycanaffectcompetition

amongindustryrivalsbythereliabilityoftheirdeliveriesorbythequalityand

performanceoftheitemstheysupply.

BuyerPower.Buyersbecomeastrongercompetitiveforcethemoretheyareableto

exercisebargainingleverageoverprice,quality,service,orothertermsorconditionsof

sale.Buyersgainstrengththroughtheirsheersizeandwhenthepurchaseiscriticalto

theseller'ssuccess.

IndustryRivalry.Often,themostpowerfulofthefiveforcesisthecompetitivebattle

amongrivalsthatarealreadyintheindustry.Theintensitywithwhichcompetitorsjockey

forpositionandcompetitiveadvantagesindicatesthestrengthoftheinfluenceofthis

force.

Althoughthismodelcanprovidealotofinsightintoanindustry,bewareofbecomingtoodependent

onPorterinyourcaseinterviews.Also,makesureyouunderstandtheunderlyingdriversofthe

forces,andwhyandhowtheycreatevariedcompetitiveenvironments.Inaddition,youmaywishto

addtothisframeworkanyexternalimpactsfromgovernment/politicalfactorsandtechnology

changes.

TheThreeCs(OrIsIt7?)

Thissimpleframeworkcanbehelpfulformarketingcasesasasimplewaytobeginlookingintoa

company'spositioninthemarket.ThefirstthreeC'srarelygettoalloftheissues,buttheydo

provideabroadframeworktogettheanalysisstarted.ThelastfourC'smaybeusefuladditionsto

furtheryouranalysis.Asyoupracticecases,begintodevelopaseriesofpotentialquestionsrelated

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toeach"C"thatwillhelpyouto“drilldown"furthertowardstherootcausesoftheproblemathand.

Someexamplesaregivenforthefirst3C'sbelow.

Customer

Whatistheunmetneed?

Whichsegmentarewe/shouldwetarget?

Aretheypricesensitive?

Competition

Whatarestrengths/weaknesses?

Howmanyarethereandhowconcentratedarethey?

Arethereexistingorpotentialsubstitutes?

Company

Whatareitsstrengths/weaknesses?

Whereinthevaluechaindoweaddvalue?

Cost

Capacity

Culture

Competence

The4Ps

Thisframeworkissuitableformarketingimplementationcases.Itisnotusuallyappropriatefor

beginningtheanalysis,butitcanbeveryhelpfulwhenyoudiscussimplementationtomakesure

thatyoucoveralloftheissues.

Product

Promotion

Price

Place(distributionchannel)

ValueChainAnalysis

Thisanalysiscanprovideagoodoutlineforanalyzingacompany'sinternaloperationsandthevalue

ofeachstepinmakingaproductorservicegofromrawmaterialstoafinishedgoodorservice.Value

chainsvarydramaticallyforeveryindustry,butherearetwoexamplesthatcanbecustomized:

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Valuechainanalysesstepyouthroughthecompany'sprocessesandhelpyouunderstandhowmuch

valueeachstepadds.Throughthistypeofanalysis,youcandiscernpossiblesynergiesamong

variousunitsofanorganizationanddeterminewhichvalueactivitiesarebestoutsourcedandwhich

arebestdevelopedinternally.Itcanalsoshowyouwheretheremaybepotentialtoremoveastepin

theprocessthataddslittlevalue.Finally,itmayuncoverwhereacompanyisweakandthus

vulnerable.

PrimaryActivities.Createtheproductorservice,deliverittothemarket,createa

demandfortheproduct,andprovideafter-salesupport.Thecategoriesofprimary

activitiesareinboundlogistics,operations,outboundlogistics,marketingandsales,

andservice.

SupportActivities.Providetheinputandinfrastructurethatallowtheprimaryactivities

totakeplace.Thecategoriesarecompanyinfrastructure,humanresource

management,informationsystems,andprocurement.

VerticalIntegration

Somecompaniesfindbeneficialtointegratebackward(towardstheirsuppliers)orforward(towards

theircustomers).Verticalintegrationmakessensewhenacompanyrequiresgreatercontrolofa

supplierorbuyerthathasmajorimpactonitsproductcostorwhentheexistingrelationshipinvolvesa

highlevelofassetspecificity.

SWOTAnalysis

Thisisanotherbasicframeworkthatmaybehelpfulinstructuringananalysisaboutacompany's

positionandtheexternalenvironment.

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunitis

Threats

AswiththethreeC's,thisframeworkprovidesastart,butisrarelysufficienttoanalyzethoroughlya

case.

BCGMatrix

Thismatrix,sometimesreferred-toasthegrowth/sharematrix,isnamedafteritsoriginator,the

BostonConsultingGroup.Itprovidesinsightintothecorporatestrategyofafirmandthepositioningof

eachofitsbusinessunits.Thetwovariablesbeinganalyzedaremarketshareandindustrygrowth.

Thematrixoftenlookslikethefollowing:

MarketShare

HighLow

HighQuestionMark

Industry

Growth

Rate

Low

Thestrategiesassociatedwiththismatrixaretoholdstars,buildquestionmarks,harvestcashcows,

anddivestdogs.Inotherwords,asacorporationlooksatitsbusinessunits,itshouldusecashcows

toprovidefundstobuilditsquestionmarksandtomaintainitsstars.Itshouldsellitsdogbusinesses

tokeepthemfromdragging-downtheothers.

Thisframeworkcanbeeasilyoverusedandoversimplified,butitcanprovidesomeinsight.For

example,ifacompanyhasacashcowamongitsbusinessunitsanditisinvestingagreatdealof

moneyinthatbusiness,youmayconcludethattheyshouldusethemoneyelsewhere.Likewise,ifa

corporationismostlyacollectionofdogs,thenyoumayconcludethatithasaroughfutureahead.

Onecaution:donotforgetcommonsensewhenusingthisframework.Forexample,itmaybeneither

profitablenorpossibletosella“dog.”

McKinsey7-SFramework

Thisframeworkcanhelpyouanalyzehowwellachangecanbeimplementedinanorganizationor

cangiveyouanideaofthegeneralwellbeingoftheorganization.Problemsarisewhentheseseven

componentsdonoreinforceoneanother.

Usethisframeworkwithcaution,though,becauseitcanbemisusedasachecklistanditisveryeasy

toforgetoneoftheS'sduringtheinterview.Thesevenfactorsare:

1.Strategy2.Systems3.Structure

4.Style5.Staff6.Skills

7.SharedValues

Product/MarketExpansionMatrix

Thisframeworkcanstructureadiscussionaboutgrowthoptionsforacompany.Theoptionsare

whethertogrowincurrentornewmarketsand/orproducts.Eachstrategycarriesdifferentrisks,with

thediversificationstrategybeingtheriskiestandthepenetrationstrategythemostconservative.

Products

CurrentNew

CurrentMarketPenetrationProductExpansion

Markets

NewMarketDevelopmentDiversification

Product/TechnologyLifeCycle

Thisconcepttakesintoaccountthepassageoftimewhendiscussingthesalesofaproductor

technology.Bothtendtogothroughfourphases:introduction,growth,maturity,anddecline.

Ifdrawninadiagram,thelifecyclecurveisS-shaped;thus,thenameTroduct/Technology

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S-Curvenissometimesusedforthisidea.Eachstagerequiresadifferentstrategyandmanagement

style.Themodelcanbeespeciallyusefulwhendiscussingthesalespatternsofanewcomputeror

othertechnology.ThefollowingfigureisanexampleofagenericScurve.

CoreCompetencyAnalysis

C.K.PrahaladandGaryHamelbroughtcorecompetenciestotheforefrontofbusinessstrategy.Very

briefly,oneoftheirideasisthatbyanalyzingwhichprocessesafirmexecutesverywell,youcan

determinehowtheymaybeabletoexpandtheirbusinessintonew,andsometimesunexpected,

areas.

AnexampleisHonda,whotranslatedtheircorecompetencyofenginebuildingintocars,

lawnmowers,boatmotors,motorcycles,etc.Wheninacase,thinkaboutwhatprocessesacompany

executesparticularlywellanddeterminewhethertheseprocessescouldbevaluableindifferent

businesses.Thisframeworkisoftenusefulinanalyzingthevaluechainofabusiness.

RelativeCostPosition

Therelativecostpositionofafirmcanbedeterminedbystackingupthevariablecostsand

allocated(asbestpossible)fixedcostsofaunitproducedbyonefirmtothecostsofaunit

producedbyacompetitor.Thekeyinsightsfromthisanalysiscanbe(1)whetheracompanyis

moreorlesscompetitivewithitscompetitionand(2)whetherthecompanywiththelargestmarket

sharehasthelowestunitcosts.Allelseequal,thisshouldbethecasebecauseofexperience

curveeffects.Ifitisnot,themarketleadermaybevulnerabletopricecompetitionbysmallerfirms.

Synergies

Thisideaisusedinmanysettings,butitcanbeespeciallyusefulinanalyzingthepotentialbenefits

ofmergersoracquisitions(apopularcaseinterviewtopic).Synergiescancomeinmanyforms,but

hereareafewtolookfor:

Spreadingfixedcostsovergreaterproductionlevels

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Gainingsalesfromhavingalargerproductlineandextendingbrands

Bettercapacityutilizationofplants

Betterpenetrationofnewgeographicmarkets

Learningvaluablemanagementskills

Obtaininghigherpricesfromeliminatingcompetition(bewareof

antitrust,though)

Ifamergeroracquisitionoffersnoneofthesebenefitsandfewothers,youmaywonderifallthe

transactionisaccomplishingisthecreationofabigger,notbetter,corporation.

PortersGenericStrategies

MichaelPorterdevelopedthreegenericbusinessstrategiesthatcanprovideabroadframework

forlookingattheproperstrategyafirmshouldtakeandcomparingthattothestrategyactually

taken.Thetwovariablesinthisframeworkarescopeofmarket(broadornarrow)andcost(highor

low).Porterbelievesthatafirmshouldchooseoneofthethreestrategies,costleadership,

differentiation,orfocus,butneverget“caughtinthemiddle.”

Costleadershipimpliesalow-costproductandeverdecreasingunitcosts(seeExperienceCurve

andRelativeCostPosition).Differentiationimpliesafocusonuniquevalueadded.Focuscan

eitherbecostleadershipordifferentiation,butitmustbedoneonanarrowscope.Sometimes,this

iscalleda“nichestrategy/Thefollowingfiguredisplaysthegenericstrategiesinmatrixform.

Market

Scope

DecisionTrees

Decisiontreesprovideageneralstructureforalmostanykindofanalysis.Infact,theyarethe

basisofmanyofthetoolspresentedabove.Ifyougetacasethatdoesnotappeartofitanyofthe

frameworksorconceptsmentioned,simplystructuretheprobleminatreeformatandworkfrom

there.

Decisiontreesaremosteffectivewhenyoustartwiththecoreproblemthenbreakthatintothreeto

fourmutually-exclusive,collectivelyexhaustive(MECE)sub-problems.Keepgoinguntilyou

determinetherootcause.Theyarealsoeffectiveinthinkingofsolutions.Forexample,"Profitswill

goupifourrevenuesgoupand/orourcostsgodown.”Itisasimpleidea,butitcoversallofthe

possibleissues.

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FrameworkForOperationsStrategy

Usethisframeworktounderstandacompany'smanufacturingstrategyandwhetherornotthis

strategyfitsinwiththestrategicgoalsofthecompany.

Fouroperationalobjectivescanhelpacompanyachieveitsmission:

Cost.Low,competitiveorhigh

Quality.Highorlow.Hasmultipledimensionslikeperformance,reliability,

durability,serviceability,featuresandperceivedquality.

Delivery.Hastwodimensions:speedandreliability

Flexibility.Hasthreedimensions:volume-abilitytoadjusttoseasonalandcyclical

fluctuationsinbusiness;newproduct-speedwithwhichnewproductsarebrought

fromconcepttomarket;productmix-abilitytoofferawiderangeofproducts.

OnceyouhavedefinedthemanufacturingstrategyintermsofCost,Quality,Delivery&Flexibility

mentionedabove,thereare10managementleversyoucanusetopursueyourgoals:facilities,

capacity,verticalintegration,qualitymanagement,supplychainrelationships,newproducts,

processandtechnology,humanresources,inventorymanagementandproductionplanningand

control.

LearningCurve

Thelearningcurve,alsodevelopedbytheBostonConsultingGroup,isamodelthatshowsthatas

afirmgainsexperienceinproducingsomething,theyareabletoproduceitmoreandmore

cheaply.Thelearningcurvereferstothecostimprovementsthatflowfromaccumulated

experiencethroughlowercosts,higherqualityandmoreeffectivepricingandmarketing.The

magnitudeoflearningisexpressedintermsofa"progressratio."Themedianratiois

approximately0.80.Thisimpliesthatforthetypicalfirm,adoublingofcumulativeoutputis

associatedwitha20%reductioninunitcosts.Forexample:

UnitProducedUnitCost

100$1.00

200$0.80

400$0.64

800$0.52

1600$0.42

3200$0.34

6400$0.28

Twoimportantideascancomefromlearningcurveanalysis.First,allelseequal,thefirminan

industrywiththelargestmarketshareshouldhavethelowestperunitcosts.Thisisbecauseithas

themostexperienceandshouldseetheresultingbenefits.Second,thesteeperthecurve(the

lowerthepercentage),themorecost-competitivetheindustry.Forexample,thepersonal

computermarkethasaverysteepcurveduetotechnologicalinnovationandobsolescencewhile

theplateglassindustryhasamuchflattercur