汽车行业：26年数据点评系列之一：乘用车25年复盘和26年展望：从“量稳价缓”到“价升量稳”

1汽车行业：26年数据点评系列之一乘用车25年复盘和26年展望：从“量稳价缓”到“价升量稳”量弹性为2.1%2）置换补贴：若顺延一年，“乘用车保有量提升”库销比短期上行主要是由于终端消费者观望情绪较浓（多数地区以旧自主车企或将根据当前需求主动调控产量，考虑后续以旧换新政策延续后的需求释放，短期库存风险不大。将或已经）出现标的：长城汽车(A/H)、上汽集团，建议关注：江淮汽34%25%16%8%-1%01/2504/2506/2508/2511/2501/26-10%汽车沪深300 2--敏实集团银轮股份福耀玻璃福耀玻璃--3 6 28 4 6 6 8 8 9 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 265 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 31 7 326 稳”筑基弱于季节性规律，或主要系部分地区以旧换新补贴政策暂停带来观望增加影响。乘0007 乘用车行业后续政策核心目标或为提升ASP“走出通缩”。24年以旧换新政策月转正后继续提升。价格企稳回升主要系分价格区间销量分化，在预期26年以旧换新政策延续背景下，消费者考虑新能源购置税退坡幅度将大概率小于补贴金额，20万以下新能源购车需求观望增加影响。日发布的报告《如何推演“反内卷”下的行口欧盟关税政策仍有调整可能性的情况下2）国内车企份额表现分化下保就业和产能利用率的需求3）国内汽车产业链安全和内在竞争力的提升，我们按照以下8 束条件的补贴政策提升乘用车行业ASP，同时通过约束条件可以实现一定的供给侧例如可能对燃油车进行购置税优惠政策来守住行业销量的下限，政策落地方式符合0.4%-0.1%----乘用车ASP同比增速（拟合）数据来源：国家统计局，交强险，广发证券发乘用车ASP同比增速（拟合）数据来源：国家统计局，交强险，广发证券发9 致透支大幅减少+以旧换新政策延续增换购需求依然有弹性，预计26年国内终端需量支撑当前的增换购需求增量3）26年乘用车以旧换新政策延续，同时依然以报及以下保有量为1600万辆，乘用车24年实际报废回收量约630万辆，对应符合报废废后购买新车占比约46%。注册登记的汽油乘用车均符合报废补贴条件，截至24年底月30日前注册登记的汽油乘用车均符合报废补贴条件，则截至25年底其保有量预计国内新车销量为1130万辆假设26年乘用车报废率和报废回收后购买新 0每年（预计）新增的符合报废条件的历史当年销量数据来源：公安部，商务部，交强险，广发证券发展 0 和边际效应递减，假设26年乘用车置换率为8.4%,将对26数据来源：公安部，商务部，交强险，广发证券发展用车行业库存为470.8万辆，其中12月乘用车行业库存减少3.7万辆。从动态库销比为2.48，12月行业动态库销比短期上行主要是由于终端消费者观望情绪较浓（多数地区以旧换新政策已暂停），叠加车企排产端调整较慢所致，我们认为后续头部自 0比+21.5%；25年乘用车累计批发销量为3005.9万辆，同比0乘用车出口销量/左轴同比增速/右轴0乘用车批发销量/左轴同比增速/右轴00 国品牌乘用车终端销量份额为65.8%，同比+3.2pct；欧系、日系、美系、韩系份额 20/0120/0520/0921/0121/0521/0922/0122/0522/09中国品牌市占率-整体/左轴中国品牌市占率-剔除新能源/左轴新能源拉动/右轴 20152016 德系/欧系——美系 派系车企24/0124/0224/0324/0424/0524/0624/0724/0824/0924/1024/1124/1225/0125/0225/0325/0425/0525/0625/0725/0825/0925/1025/1125/12比亚迪(含腾势）9.7%16.8%15.4%吉利汽车7.7%8.6%7.1%7.4%7.5%7.1%6.9%7.8%7.8%8.6%8.7%9.3%10.4%9.8%长安汽车7.3%8.0%6.0%5.7%5.4%4.9%5.0%4.6%4.7%5.8%6.0%6.0%7.1%6.4%6.4%6.4%6.3%5.5%5.8%5.7%5.5%5.6%5.2%5.1%奇瑞汽车5.3%5.5%4.0%4.9%5.3%5.2%5.6%5.2%5.1%5.3%5.6%6.8%7.4%6.3%5.4%5.3%5.6%5.3%5.8%5.5%5.4%6.1%5.5%5.4%长城汽车3.8%3.9%3.1%3.0%2.9%3.0%2.8%2.6%2.3%2.8%2.8%2.9%3.1%2.8%2.6%2.9%3.1%3.0%3.0%2.9%3.1%3.1%3.0%3.1%广汽乘用车2.9%2.7%3.3%3.2%3.3%3.1%3.2%2.9%2.7%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.8%2.7%2.7%2.5%2.4%2.7%2.4%2.3%2.0%2.1%2.4%赛力斯汽车2.0%2.1%2.5%2.4%2.2%0.9%0.8%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.6%2.7%理想汽车2.1%2.1%2.8%2.8%2.5%2.5%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.4%上汽乘用车0.8%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.8%0.7%0.8%2.0%2.1%零跑汽车0.7%0.9%0.5%0.8%0.7%2.1%2.5%2.6%2.4%2.3%2.5%蔚来汽车0.5%0.7%0.8%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.6%2.0%小鹏汽车0.4%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.6%0.9%0.8%2.0%合资&外资一汽大众9.4%8.8%7.3%7.4%7.0%7.6%7.1%6.5%5.9%6.5%6.5%5.5%8.2%6.6%6.8%6.5%6.6%6.9%5.9%5.7%6.2%6.4%5.8%6.4%上汽大众7.0%5.6%5.0%5.0%4.6%4.5%5.3%4.8%4.9%5.1%5.0%5.3%6.2%4.6%4.4%4.9%4.8%4.8%4.6%4.3%3.8%3.9%3.5%3.8%上汽通用五菱3.6%5.0%4.3%3.5%3.3%2.6%3.5%3.2%4.1%5.9%5.2%4.5%3.0%6.3%5.3%4.6%4.2%3.9%4.2%4.8%4.8%6.0%5.3%2.8%特斯拉中国2.9%4.0%2.1%3.4%3.3%2.8%2.5%3.0%3.1%3.0%2.2%3.9%2.1%2.9%2.4%2.9%3.2%3.6%4.1%广汽丰田3.1%3.3%3.6%3.5%3.9%4.3%3.5%3.2%3.0%3.2%2.9%2.8%2.9%3.1%3.3%3.6%3.5%3.6%3.5%3.3%3.3%3.2%3.1%3.1%3.6%3.2%2.3%2.6%2.9%2.7%2.3%2.1%2.3%2.6%2.2%2.4%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.8%2.8%2.3%2.5%2.0%2.2%华晨宝马3.4%2.9%3.3%3.1%3.3%3.6%3.0%2.7%2.0%2.3%2.5%2.7%2.1%2.5%2.4%2.6%2.5%2.3%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.4%上汽通用3.4%2.7%2.8%2.9%2.4%2.2%2.2%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.4%2.5%2.7%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.3%一汽丰田3.4%2.6%3.0%3.6%3.3%3.6%4.1%3.7%3.3%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%3.1%3.5%3.6%3.5%3.5%3.6%3.3%2.9%2.8%2.6%2.7%北京奔驰2.6%2.4%3.0%3.3%3.1%2.9%3.0%2.7%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.9%2.2%2.3%2.1%2.0%2.0%广汽本田2.7%2.1%2.4%2.3%2.3%2.0%2.5%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.2%北京现代0.9%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.6%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%长安福特0.9%0.8%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%沃尔沃0.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.2%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.7% 二、12月PHEV渗透率表现亮眼，继续关注“自主品牌及高端SUV”竞品组合的表现其中，纯电动和插电式混合动力交强险12月销量分别34.3%/24.3%，同比分别+6.0pct/+5.806040800600400200新能源渗透率（批发口径）新能源渗透率（终端口径） 2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年20新能源渗透率（批发口径）新能源渗透率（终端口径）——BEVPHEV——HEV——新能源渗透率新能源乘用车渠道库存整体处于相对正常的位置。考虑到21年之前新能源乘用车库存较少，21年以来的渠道库存变化基本可以反映新能源乘用车库存的情况。根据中汽协和交强险数据，25年12月新能源乘用车渠道库存减少24.4万辆12月底新能源乘用车库销比约2.0。 注：新能源乘用车库销比=截至25年3月渠道库存累计值/近3个月终端销量根据中汽协，25年12月新能源乘用车月度出口量为29.4万辆，同比+135.9353025新能源乘用车出口销量/左轴同比增速/右轴00新能源乘用车批发销量/左轴同新能源乘用车累计出口/左轴累计同比增速/右轴00新能源乘用车累计批发销量/左轴累计同比增 建议关注“自主加速平替合资燃油车+高端SUV”竞品组合的表现。我们在24年我们尝试建立一个可持续跟踪、模型可不断进化且有数据库和模型作为支撑的方法论，对一些市场高度关注的重磅车型的销量进行有效跟踪分析，我们在月度跟踪点其中，20万以下建议关注将继续演绎PHEV加速平替合资燃油车逻辑的竞品现亮眼2）比亚迪汉组合中，银河星耀8和风云A9上市以来份额表现亮眼3） 778564.99.%0.7%6.0856414778564.99.%0.7%6.08564143011份额变化2101-21052106-22012202-22112212-23072308-24032404-25102101-25122512份额2512份额环比宋L6.%%10.10.9%0.0%0.0%昂科威.-0.0.0%0.1%-3.4.2%-4-4.10.0%0.0%0.0%银河M97.4%7.%7.7%7.7%0.0%0.0%领克086.%-1.6.% 6.5%%红旗HS5%4.3-3.-2.-1.-1.. 6.2%%豹54.5. 5.5%%零跑C166.0% 5.4%%皇冠陆放3.2%0.4%0.6%-0.-0. 5.3%%比亚迪唐-0.5.28.3%-3.-11.9%% 4.6%坦克3004.9%.-2.0.% 4.3%-0.宝马X1%%-3. -4. %%-1捷途旅行者9.7%9.7%-%3.%-02%小鹏G64.64.6-2.%3.%3.0%-0奇骏 -1. 1%-0.2.-2.4%4%0.1%-15.3%2.7%-0.传祺GS8-0.2.4%0.4%-1.-1.%%2.7%0.25%25奥迪Q33.4%3.4%-2.909052.6%%捷途山海T2%06%062.0%%奔驰GLB级-1.-0.-0.2.0%-4-4-1.%1.9%-0岚图知音3.%%1.7%-06%途昂%2.2.11.7%精灵#50.3%%1.4%0.4747精灵#12.8%2.8%-0-1.0.%%1.3%0.%凯迪拉克XT4-0.-0.9%比亚迪海狮070.8%深蓝S09%%0.5%-0.星途星纪元ET0.7%0.%0.5%-0.冠道%-4-40.4%0.0%0.0%大众ID.UNYX0.4%冒险家01010.3%%深蓝G3180.%0.%0.%0.3%-0.1%本田UR-V-1.-1.0.2%沃尔沃EX300.%0.%0.1%0.0%0.0%极越070.0%%0.0%%护卫舰070.0%4.0-2.-1.%0.0%%高端SUV竞品组合中理想L6、小米YU7上市以来份额表现亮眼。在《新格局下乘用车行业系列报告十一：谁会成为下一个“爆款”？》报告中我们指出从行业利润分布来看，30万以上区间乘用车利润占行业稳态利润中枢约70%，建议关注在76216889614107621688961410份额变化2512份额环比特斯拉ModelY%%%% %% 8%88%8%%6%66%6.%极氪7X2%2%%%-%1%1%%%%%.%%% %%8%8% . %凯迪拉克XT5%.%%%%%%%2%2%%领克9001.2%21.2%-0.%-4.3%-3.3%1.%0.2%蔚来ES68%8航海家%%%%%%%%% 20万以上20万以上0-10万（含10万）20万以上和12.1%。从车企来看，吉利汽车、长城汽车和长安汽车新能源乘用车25年12月渗透率分别为59.7%、56.6%、59 20Q120Q420Q120Q4 20/0120/0620/1121/0421/0922/02华东：上海市、江苏省、浙江省、安徽省、江西省、华南：广东省、广西壮族自治区、海南省，以及香港20Q120Q421Q322Q280%70%60%50%40%30%20%21/0121/0321/0521/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/1124/0124/0324/0524/0724/0924/1125/0125/0325/0525/0725/0925/11——一线城市二线城市三线城市——四线城市五线城市——总体三、重点结构/车型跟踪355